Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
Oh good.
The anti smoking crowd is now activated.
No one but you mentioned smokers.
But I’m sure smokers are to blame for all of this now.
Usually launched by former smokers who are jealous people still smoke.
My thoughts exactly. This is basically an experiment to see how easily the sheeple can be controlled via fear. Apparently, pretty, darn easily.
Then again, this has to be advancing from the left. They couldn’t get rid of Trump with Stormy Daniels, the Russians, impeachment, so let’s wreck the economic growth he brought forth. Yeah, maybe THAT will help get rid of him. (*cough*)
Any comparison of CV-19 to the seasonal flu, in an effort to lessen the threat, is to ignore Dr Fauci's warning to the nation. But do carry on, some of the most strident "it's flu" folks offered us the disasters of "free trade", "globalization", the "Iraq war" and both Bush presidents. You folks are kinda like Greta Thunberg and the global warming cult; you prance from disaster to disaster, never once realizing how wrong you are.
The same is true for Corona. To calculate a death rate you need real numbers, not 'confirmed' numbers. For all I know I HAVE Corona and will never know.
It will be a long time before there are enough stats to estimate the death rate.
IN THE MEAN TIME, freepers will be at eachother's throats about whether Corona is serious or not. These arguments have more to do with the freepers' unconscious negativity issues and need to call other people stupid and nothing to do with the reality of Corona or the Flu or TooBigGovernment.
When this is all over, it will have either been worse or better than each of us expected. Although nobody knows, the group that is closest to what finally happens will claim to be smart and claim the other side is dumb.
Really the only ignorant ones are the ones who think they know now how it will all turn out.
Have a little humility laddies!
The same is true for Corona. To calculate a death rate you need real numbers, not 'confirmed' numbers. For all I know I HAVE Corona and will never know.
It will be a long time before there are enough stats to estimate the death rate.
IN THE MEAN TIME, freepers will be at eachother's throats about whether Corona is serious or not. These arguments have more to do with the freepers' unconscious negativity issues and need to call other people stupid and nothing to do with the reality of Corona or the Flu or TooBigGovernment.
When this is all over, it will have either been worse or better than each of us expected. Although nobody knows, the group that is closest to what finally happens will claim to be smart and claim the other side is dumb.
Really the only ignorant ones are the ones who think they know now how it will all turn out.
Have a little humility laddies!
It’s fear of the unknown.
Unfortunately, that fear is destroying commerce & financial markets. When the number of new cases starts to wane (May?), people will start to believe the worst is over & start living more normally, thus improving business & the economy. Hopefully by July, the virus will be in the rear view mirror and the economy will steadily increase from there.
I think people concentrate too much on the immediate death rate. That;s important, of course, but it’s those that survive that are the core problem in all this.
The human and equipment resources needed to handle the cases over 10 days to a month’s time or more is tough enough. But since there is no immunity, vaccine or cure, more will keep coming in.
That is the problem and that’s why Trump is trying to “flatten the curve” in 15 days. The question is if 15 days is enough to have any impact of meaning.
Also, with such a specific time range, you can reasonably extrapolate that’s the amount of time the WH believe to be left before things begin hitting the fan, medical system collapse-wise on localitie’s basis.
While everyone is in a panic about the coronavirus (officially renamed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization), there’s an even deadlier virus many people are forgetting about: the flu.
Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.
The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu this season, with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus.
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
Corona is a joke. Protect the old and sick people and let it run its course through the rest of the population. Open everything back up. We are destroying our economy for nothing. Stop listening to fossils like Fauci. This is not a dystopian Hollywood film. It’s just a nasty flu bug. Stop the madness.
Tatown, trying to reason with Mr. Preston is like trying to get facts from Nancy Pelosi. Ain’t happening! :)
Irony.
“So let’s close everything down because of Coronavirus...They are out to get Trump no matter what they have to do....”
EXACTLY!!!!!!!
No, those are in fact US #s
“While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable.”
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm
I also track the CDC metrics deaths/confirmed cases, and recoveries/confirmed cases. It disturbs me when using the same methodology, the death and survival rates don’t add to 100%...
“Exactly I’m just a real Jethro with lab science and engineering degrees Louie.”
And I bet you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night too!
Do the math on # confirmed / # deaths, and its 1/5 the rate of the seasonal flu. If the seasonal flu’s actual death rate, and the 1/5 holds, its significantly less deadly than the seasonal flu. Confirmed cases != actual cases. Most are mild or regular symptoms and don’t go to the doctor.
That pretty much makes all statistics on influenza useless non-data doesn’t it?
The point of this exercise is not to argue anything outside of what the data simply reveals. If after knowing the facts to this point (as best we can) people can make decisions without all of the woo factored in.
Have a great day!
It appears caronavirus goes through the senior population more quickly than the regular flu. That’s why you have the initial overwhelming of the medical system (China, Washington and Italy). Once you loose or treat those seniors what’s left is a regular flu outbreak. The best response would have been intensive quarantine of seniors and a regular response to a bad flu season. If you look at total flu/caronavirus deaths this year it will be less in the US than the total projected flu only deaths from early January. Our response will actually save flu at risk seniors this year only to probably have the regular flu get them next year or the year after. At the rate we’re going more seniors might actually die from the caronavirus economic/societal disruption than the virus.
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