Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
The Diamond Princess was the perfect model that had over 4400 people on board with the virus for two months. Central air conditioning throughout, central heating, common dining room for everyone and so on. Of those aboard 17 percent got the disease (696) and of those 7 died, which was about one tenth of one percent of its population!! Those ships have a preponderance of the aged, compared to general populations. This is the best example to date of a controlled epidemic on a sealed metal can, and you can see the numbers don’t fit the roomers hype!
Good analysis!
I’m not being difficult.
The ONLY *REAL* data we have for this disease is the South Korean data.
All else is essentially irrelevant.
For everyone ELSE, the ONLY data that is important is the number of FREE ICU beds for anyone who needs one.
Because once THAT number is exceeded the all cause mortality will rise (don’t have a heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, car wreck, etc...)
South Korean data for THIS virus is probably the most accurate for ANY pathogen EVER. It’s caught the R0, the real one. It’s caught the mild asymptomatic cases, it’s caught vagaries of contact information that would have been lost to ‘recollection’. It’s caught the disease transmission between asymptomatic people and people who may yet die of the disease, it’s caught the reverse as well.
Data we’ve never collected, as far as I can find, for any other disease.
The shutdowns have more to do with protecting the ICU capacity than anything else.
Whether you or I agree that it’s an overreaction is another matter.
Also remember that China is accusing US of developing a virus and releasing it on Chinese soil. if WE carried on as if nothing we out of the ordinary, WE might end up in a hot war with China. WE’d lose this btw, for the same reason the confederacy lost the civil war. No manufacturing base and in a war WITH your enemies manufacturing base.
Also remember, WE likely haven’t received a shipment of antibiotics in a month, perhaps longer. I have no doubt that our official reserve information for that is (at least now) a high secret. And the stoppage of elective procedures may have more to do with THAT than hospital beds needed for the virus. Also blood thinners, other medical supplies. IIRC we make IV’s in Puerto Rico but those may involve stuff imported from China as well.
There’s a LOT more at stake here than the likelihood that Joe’s Eats will survive bankruptcy.
China has indicated they might not ship us any more medical supplies. Any guesses how long it might take to make our own? The last penicillin fermenter closed in ‘04 (who was president in 04?). The guy that ran that shop floor is probably in his early 70’s. There are no 30 somethings that know how to run an operation like that any more, they were all in high school or college still. The 40 and 50 somethings (now) haven’t done that for 15 years. That’s a long time for a skill set to marinate.
We don’t even make the chemical precursors any more. Ie, India is just as screwed as we are. One reason they’ve stopped exporting ‘important’ drugs as well.
‘We’ have survived the government using quarantine and travel restrictions for disease prevention before. We’ll have to make sure we do so this time as well. The quarantine and movement restriction laws being used have been on the books since we were founded (and were on the books before we were founded) and have been used many times before.
We just grew up and matured in a country that didn’t need them for over a hundred years and have forgotten that they were fairly common in the 1800’s (smallpox, etc).
I can’t answer to the stock market. IMHO the numbers there involve traders who’ve just now, in the past several weeks, realized that the globalists have created an economic single point of failure called China. And China has not only failed, it’s being belligerent about it...
“The ONLY *REAL* data we have for this disease is the South Korean data.”
We don’t know that. We “know” what they tell us, and that’s all.
You are exactly right. The Diamond Princess was an enclosed petri dish yet ~17% were infected. As you state a cruise ship population likely skews older than the general population as well.
Shutting the entire world down does not compute based on the known facts and data. There is possibly something much bigger/different at play but I have no idea what it is.
I just gave you the factual data from the CDC in terms of confirmed influenza and confirmed COVID cases and outcomes. The calculations using that data are very simple. If, on the other hand, you’d rather believe the data from South Korea vs the data compiled from clinical labs around the United States then we obviously have nothing left to discuss. What I’ve posted has nothing to do with anything other that CDC data compiled from US clinical labs.
Data is data. It doesn’t care about motives or outcomes. It just tells what it tells.
Do you think the Georgia governor begging for supplies on TV this morning was playacting?
Do you think he’d do this if it weren’t a serious situation.
Disease mortality from the CDC from this or any past year is irrelevant in this country now.
We no longer manufacture medical supplies.
China is holding any they do manufacture hostage. We have been told by the chicoms that we will drown in a sea of coronavirus with no supplies from them.
Seriously hope you don’t have kids or grandkids. Strep throat was a deadly disease of children before antibiotics.
Now THAT is a beautiful line!
LOL You set me up pretty good to come up with it.
Hesitating to wade in to an acrimonious thread..
Roughly 5200 cases in USA 96 deaths = 1.8% Case #’s from John Hopkins site deaths from https://ncov2019.live/data.
Infuenza positive tests Clinical Labs 10/19- 03/07 222,552 plus 39,644 from Public Health Labs
Influenza deaths are reported as 22,000 – 55,000 by the CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Interestingly downloading their raw data & doing the addition thru 3/7 there are only 1200 deaths. The CDC explains this discrepancy by saying they do not capture all the cases so they use a mathematical model. This does not give me confidence in their estimates. I prefer the raw data.
If they are correct at the high end the death rate is estimated at: 20% (55k deaths/262k positive tests), low end of their estimated deaths - 8% (22k deaths/262k positive tests), based on the raw death tally estimated death rate is 0.4% (1.2k deaths/262k positive tests.
This exercise has convinced me that the numbers, and the estimates about lethality are the statistician’s version legerdemain, garbage in & garbage out.
I’m glad POTUS is involved and placing this agency under the microscope. They are not worth the price of their hire at present.
There are hard numbers for deaths. You can download the raw data that is used in the chart on the site you reference. That gives weekly death totals which can be summed easily in excel.
As another freeper says, reporting flu deaths is not mandatory. IDK but if not should it be mandatory if there is such an economic and morbidity mortality involved? Shouldn’t we have the data to drive decisions? Every patient has a cause of death, death certificate. It would be a clerical issue & could be automated.
That would be comforting but the screening so far is 97% negative which argues against that hypothesis.
YES! “Confirmed infected” (tested) people is a fraudulent number to use.
SO FEW HAVE BEEN TESTED and ONLY “likely infected” have been getting tested.
The fatality rate numbers are SKEWED or SCREWED, take your pick.
None of your emotional questions are relevant to the data. The data doesn’t care.
The problem is that the 20K is based on a “mathematical model.”
The actual reported deaths are 1200 as of 3/7.
There is a lot of garbage being fed the American public. It’s not only from Global warming. I discovered the level of scientific fraud today & I am ripping mad.
hold my beer:
86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3825477/posts
As of March 15 in 2020, the total number of confirmed cases with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the cruise ship Diamond Princess reached 712 patients, including 567 passengers and 145 crews.
As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.
Mortality numbers lag behind infection numbers simply because it takes days to weeks for severely ill people to die of COVID-19. Thus, current death rates should properly be divided by the number of known infections from the previous week or two, researchers wrote in February in Swiss Medical Weekly.
Well it’s a theory. It seems unlikely with the tests of symptomatic patients being 97% negative. Seems odd that 97% of symptomatic patients are negative but thousand of asymptomatic people have the infection.
Truth is sometimes strange, perhaps we will know someday...
If it’s Smithwicks I wouldn’t trust me holding it otherwise you are probably OK.
Love reading your sane posts amidst the insane dystopian weirdos
Thank you for your kindness. It is more appreciated than you know!
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