Covid-19: The numbers tell the story. Here's what we are learning so far regarding this pandemic

American Thinker ^ | 03/16/2020 | Marc Shepard

[SeekAndFind]

Updated.

By merging datasets recently made available by the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins University, I’ve gathered some truly fascinating trend statistics on the global penetration of Covid-19 which I’m now prepared to share. There are 20 infected countries on page one of my analysis – and these are their stories.

You’ll notice that this particular data-snapshot contains population, new cases reported, deaths and recoveries by country of exposure. I’ve added 5 columns for each metric: total, today, last 5 days, 6-10 days ago, and 11-15 days ago are calculated for each in order to spot trends.

I’ve also added percentages of cases per population, fatalities per caseload, and recoveries per caseload, by country and worldwide.

The 2020 populations came courtesy of a UN dataset which I joined to an ECDC dataset for daily new case and death details and a JHU-CSSE dataset for recovery details. The latter 2 are updated daily at 0800 GMT.

I was tempted to submit the result-set without comment, but perhaps I should get the conversation started.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) – By the Numbers

Note: When reading this section, please keep in mind that its analysis was penned based on older data (3/14/20). I’ve added an update including latest data table in the final section. Together, the 2 days’ data tell quite the fast-paced story. Hang on to your hat.

Note: This was Saturday

Now then, I’ve sorted the result-set descending by caseload, which, of course, puts the country where it all began, China, on top by a wide margin with 80,973 confirmed cases, 3,194 deaths and 64,196 patients recovered. Given a population of 1.44 Billion, that’s a 0.005626 % infection rate (that’s 1 in 19,011); a 3.94 % mortality rate and a 79.28 % recovery rate thus far.

[BenLurkin]

The U.S. surgeon general said Monday that the United States is about where Italy was two weeks ago in the coronavirus struggle, a sign that infections are expected to rise.

“We are at a critical inflection point in this country, people,” Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox News. “When you look at the projections, there’s every chance that we could be Italy.” Yet he said the U.S. has opportunities to mitigate the pandemic.

Two weeks ago, Italy had 1,700 cases of coronavirus and had reported 34 deaths. Now, Italy is reporting an estimated 25,000 cases and more than 1,800 deaths. About 3,800 cases have been reported in the United States and so far, more than 65 people have died from coronavirus. Although the numbers may not be directly comparable, the trajectory is, as Adams sees it.

https://apnews.com/41bb7d0b74adc5159ca602cf988edde7

[DouglasKC]

Always keep in mind that China managed this by draconian actions to slow it down...mass quarantines, armed guards, etc etc.

[Hot Tabasco]

I understand what you meant.....I was merely pointing out how negligent and down right dangerous the MSM has been in perpetuating the panic.

[arthurus]

Well, of course.

[arthurus]

We have none of it in my county and a couple of cases one county to the west.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Bump

[WildHighlander57]

Thanks! Prayers UP!!!

[mom.mom]

What did Italy do during the 2016-2017 flu season where there were 24,981 deaths?

Is this season going to top that one?

[JayGalt]

No those are hard numbers. Each day’s reported deaths. If you look at the site they even break them into Influenza A, Influenza B and some other lesser variants of Influenza. To see the daily info you need to use the download in excel button but all the other aggregate data is at the link.

[goodnesswins]

Thx

[null and void]

Deaths can't be hidden.

Tell that to an Armenian, an Ukrainian, a Cambodian, a Uygar, a German/Eastern European Jew, a...

Maybe not forever, but dictators have long hidden massive numbers of deaths.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Even if Coronavirus is as bad as some think giving up our freedom and liberty to reduce the death toll is not worth it.

Yep, this is exactly the kind of attitude that will cause the infections to spike and death rates to rise further.

Your attitude is similar to that New Hampshire infected man ( the live free or die state ) who, despite being tested positive and asked to self-quarantine, CONTINUED to go out and socialize, visiting ball games and parties.

Freedom also assumes people will exercise CIVIC MINDEDNESS. Infected people with your attitude will result in the death and sickness of more than needed.

[null and void]

Nope. Not even with my pocket microscope.

[pburgh01]

Yes if it’s a choice of my liberty and the possibility of infecting your 85 year old 50 year smoker grandmother with a version of the flu...I’m picking me over your grandmother. It’s sad that the “guys who pee sitting down” are driving this debate on this hype machine.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Yes if it’s a choice of my liberty and the possibility of infecting your 85 year old 50 year smoker grandmother with a version of the flu..

Those are the AVERAGE age of the ones who die. But there are many others who are not of this demographic.

BTW, you sound like Joe Biden’s healthcare adviser, Ezekiel Emmanuel -— if your grandma or mama is above 80, just let her die.

[Celtic Conservative]

The one thing being left out about Italy on a consistent basis is that they have a crap-ton of cheap chinese labor in the area most affected, and it’s just after Chinese new year.

CC

[RedWing9]

The point I was making is that wide spread testing has yet to occur.

Exactly, and any "curve up" in positive cases should be asterisked as statistical abnormality to availability of testing. We cannot simply state that the # of cases will continue up exponentially based on the early returns of tests for those who've had it for *weeks*.

[Sir Napsalot]

Right, I gave up trying to make any sense of the two graphs, neither one is not clickable as a separate sheet/tab.

Guess we’ll just have to trust his verbal analysis.