Posted on 03/13/2020 11:14:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Will the COVID-19 outbreak burn out in the summer as happened with the SARS epidemic in 2003?
That is what many hope, including U.S. President Donald Trump. Some scientists are also speculating that the coronavirus will not survive long in warmer environments. But whether this is true is still up in the air.
The number of new confirmed cases has shown signs of slowing over the past several days, and more patients are being released from hospitals every day. But the point when the number of infected people declines is still not in sight.
Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese respiratory expert who became famous for his role in the 2003 SARS epidemic, said on Monday that he expects the number of new cases to peak in late February. But whether that would mark the turning point depends on what effect resumption of work across China would have on the spread of the disease.
Wang Chen, a respiratory expert at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, told state broadcaster CCTV that appropriate quarantine measures combined with warm weather will help curb the spread.
Theoretically, the COVID-19 virus -- part of the coronavirus family that also includes SARS and MERS -- is sensitive to temperature. All viruses are made up of a nucleic acid molecule inside a protein shell called a capsid. Some viruses, such as coronavirus, have an external membrane outside the shell. The membrane is relatively sensitive to heat.
COVID-19 remains stable at 4 degrees Celsius and can survive for several years at 60 degrees below zero, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. In higher temperatures, its resistance declines, but the temperature affects only the virus' survival time, not its ability to infect, the center says.
Similar results were found with the SARS coronavirus. SARS remains stable at 4 degrees Celsius, but will lose its activeness in three days at 37 degrees and can survive for only 15 minutes at 70 degrees Celsius below zero, according to research by Bao Zuoyi and Liu Yongjian at China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences.
During the 2003 SARS outbreak, for every rise of 1 degree Celsius in Hong Kong, where the virus killed almost 300 people, the number of confirmed cases declined by 3.6. The SARS outbreak lasted about eight months.
Similar to COVID-19, the first SARS case was recorded late in the year. The number of confirmed cases peaked in April 2003, and no more patients were found in July. Scientists have never discovered a cure for SARS, and it is widely believed the virus dies off during warm weather.
According to the 2007 book "SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped" by Shigeru Omi, regional director of the World Health Organization, the United Nations health agency attributed the defeat of the epidemic to transparent reporting of cases, efforts to control the flow of infected people, and warm weather.
But differences between SARS and COVID-19 make it difficult to predict the resilience of the new virus. Unlike SARS, which can only infect others by patients with a fever, people with COVID-19 can spread the disease without exhibiting any symptoms, making it much harder to control the outbreak.
A recent study showed that COVID-19 is far more contagious than SARS. Published on Feb. 15 by the medical research archive bioRxiv, the study was conducted by a team led by University of Texas researcher Jason McLellan, who for years has been researching different types of coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.
As temperatures rise, coronavirus floats in the air or attaches to surfaces -- both places where it can survive for only a short time. But once in the body, its ability to infect does not decrease, said Ma Ke, a doctor at Wuhan Tongji Hospital.
One would think that if specialists in the area can do survivability tests on surfaces they would also do temperature sensitive survivability tests on aerosols.
I’d also think the focus would be on the protective envelope composition, which might be very similar between COVID and SARS.
Don’t count on it.
It is not killing it in Australia where it is summer and hot as Hades.
What about Hillary’s voice? How’s the virus hold up against that?
We could blast it over loudspeakers across the country.
“Scientists not sure”
First piece of honest reporting in a while.
A rise in air temperature causes a higher humidity.
Real “scientists” are never “sure” about anything.
One thing DNC-media not planned for...how much will all the “hype buying” will spur the economy? More demand on supply means more profit for biz.
It’s a ridiculous assumption to suggest the virus will die in warmer weather.
“It is not killing it in Australia where it is summer and hot as Hades.”
Same in Brazil, where the cases just doubled.
Scientific Totalitarians wouldn’t know. These are trials for them. We should have trials for them. L4 lab mgrs?
It’s going to be 62 for a high in Melbourne on Saturday. Not exactly hot as Hades.
Hawaii two confirmed cases, same number as three days ago. Both patients were exposed while on vacation on the mainland (WA St.) / cruise. Hawaii is a big vacation spot for Asians. Just food for thought.
Now just HOW do the Chinese know the virus can survive for two years at 60 below?
My tinfoil alarm is pinging...
RE: Hawaii
Nobody is saying that there will be no infections when the weather starts to warm. The cases that you mentioned got their infection from OUTSIDE Hawaii.
How fast or slow will it spread in warm weather is the question, not will a person in warm weather be infected.
There several cases in Brazil, a warm and humid climate.
It’s autumn in Australia
No virus or bacteria can survive an Arizona summer
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.