Posted on 03/10/2020 11:57:44 AM PDT by Red Badger
South Korea had 7,513 Covid-19 cases as of Monday, with daily infections falling for a fourth consecutive day
Officials attribute the decrease to mass testing, improved public communication and the use of advanced technology
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South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China , although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran .
As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday.
The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Monday noted his country’s “slowing trend” of new infections but warned: “We should not be complacent at all.”
His point was underscored by the KCDC, which said that among the new patients were more than 60 people who were infected while working in close proximity to each other at an insurance company call centre.
“The total number of new confirmed cases is on a downturn but there are concerns over such mass infection cases”, said KCDC Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook.
(Excerpt) Read more at scmp.com ...
So no, they didn't have to lock down cities but they are still doing things that nobody in America will stand for. Our fate is going to be quite different.
B Great article though!
“The 150K testing number is great, but we have no way of knowing if everybody who has been exposed to COVID-19 in SK has been tested, and statistically, it’s probably not true.”
While there are almost certainly cases still out in the wild, any cases that pop up is going to get swamped with tests and contact tracing.
“Actually the 0.1% death rate number from the CDC for the Flu includes an estimate of people who have COVID-19 and who have not seen the doctor. Without the estimate, the number from the CDC is 0.2%.”
How do you count people that were never tested - we don’t have comprehensive testing of random asymptomatic people - and never noticed they had the flu even enough to buy something over the counter or even a spare box of Kleenex? You can’t. You might as well say everyone got it and just use the mortality rate. The flu is endemic and a lot of people simply know how to handle a mild case - but they know they had something to medicate.
“99% of the remaining unresolved cases in SK are described as “mild”. Only 1% of the unresolved cases are described as “serious” or “critical”. So that really shouldn’t effect the 0.7% number too significantly.”
That’s great news. Shows what focusing all of the resources of a country on containment can do. Do you have a source, though? But saying that only the 1% are serious or critical doesn’t mean that all the mild cases are sure to recover, nor that all the critical cases are going to die. Some few of the milds likely will die, and a substantially higher proportion of that 1%. It’s not going to stay at 0.7% of the known cases. If all the serious/critical cases died it would be up around 2%. If none, then it stays at 0.7%. It will be somewhere in between. Assuming no other significant outbreaks.
It's not. South Korea is being extremely draconian in their attempt to stop the virus but in a different way than China.
They went full big brother. They identify everyone, including name and address, who has the virus and sends texts to anyone who is in the vicinity letting them know that they're close to an infected person. They track the people with the virus to trace their movements and see if they're breaking quarantine. They are doing mass quarantines by repurposing buildings and what not as quarantine centers to stop the infected from overrunning the hospitals. They are going full bore on tracing and isolating victims. They are automatically quarantining for 2 weeks all who want to enter the country. So no, they didn't have to lock down cities but they are still doing things that nobody in America will stand for. Our fate is going to be quite different. Honestly it's going to be closer to Iran or Italy in the US.
So we can't use these numbers to show the true death rate. Not unless we're as hyper vigilant and proactive.
Of course not. But it helps estimate how many people have it and aren't bothered by it.
Right now, I think they say something like 82% have mild enough cases to not need medical attention. If that number was 95%, I'd be a lot more blase about exposure. The only way to know that is by cross-sectional testing of the population, and also the exposed population.
The S. Korean lesson is to test early and test extensively to know what is happening in the general population and then aggressively commence immediate control and treatment of all infected individuals. Nothing fancy, just common sense.
How do you count people that were never tested
See link for their explanation.
Flu deaths were roughly 0.2% without the estimate and 0.1% with the estimate.
The point remains. When one compares Flu vs. COVID-19 death rates, a similar estimate would have to be made for COVID-19 cases that are never reported.
That’s great news. Shows what focusing all of the resources of a country on containment can do. Do you have a source, though? But saying that only the 1% are serious or critical doesn’t mean that all the mild cases are sure to recover, nor that all the critical cases are going to die. Some few of the milds likely will die, and a substantially higher proportion of that 1%. It’s not going to stay at 0.7% of the known cases. If all the serious/critical cases died it would be up around 2%. If none, then it stays at 0.7%. It will be somewhere in between. Assuming no other significant outbreaks.
See link.
While it's true that "all mild cases won't recover", I believe based on the 99 to 1 ratio of mild cases to serious/critical, that only a very small percentage of mild cases will move to serious, then critical and then death.
I would say that between 0.8% and 1.0% would be a pretty good prediction and that's before estimating all the cases that are not reported.
Testing stops it?
I wondered about that too.
Maybe it proves that the tested just have colds? IOW, the virus numbers inflate when they count maybe sorta might be’s in the numbers, just to be safe, of course...but that goes away when the tests come back negative.
Just a thought.
They ran almost 1,000,000 tests before we ran 200.
And?
Oh, great. I’m gonna stock up on kimchi! Wonder if spicy foods help...
Testing stops it?
Like drivers licenses for illegals improves driving?
Hey - in some areas, it’s over 100% death rate - folks are so panicked that if someone sneezes withing hearing, a dozen folks grab their chests and go into cardiac arrest...and it’s gonna get worse as allergy season gets into full swing....
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