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Data shows daily coronavirus deaths are decreasing worldwide. Media misleads with cumulative statistics and graphs
Tech Startups ^ | POSTED ON MARCH 8, 2020 | TechStartups Team

Posted on 03/08/2020 6:00:55 PM PDT by narses

With coronavirus death toll in the U.S. rising to 19, people are becoming increasing afraid of contracting the disease. To date, there are 3,803 reported deaths with 109,835 confirmed cases worldwide. Also a total of 60,694 people have recovered from the virus. As the fear of coronavirus continues to spread, there are a growing number of reports of empty shop shelves as people rush to stock up on basic products such as hand soap, sanitizers, tissue papers, and many more. It got so bad that some stores are now limiting purchases of these products, more due to coronavirus fears.

The fears stem from the misleading information coming from mainstream media about the trend of the virus. The media shows the number of fatalities continuously increasing, on a time-based graph. The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.

Hats off to Evan at TradeGuru, who first noticed the discrepancy in media’s cumulative statistics and created a more accurate chart. According to Evan’s analysis using the raw data provided by John Hopkins University, “the virus is decreasing in hotspots such as South Korea, China and Hong Kong (the first to deal with the novel virus). The press tells us it’s an outbreak, or a pandemic on the precipice. Both situations would suggest exponential growth. The actual data doesn’t suggest exponential growth of fatalities at all. The data suggests decline. In fact, the crude death rate is statistically 0.”

Also, it’s now being estimated that 80% of individuals that contract the coronavirus are asymptomatic or midly-symptomatic. And in this viral video, Rebecca Fraiser says she “never really felt unwell” after contracting the virus, and it “sounds like it is the case for the majority of people.”


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19; resurrection
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To: Nifster

We are now just beginning to test...

Why were we not testing a month ago? If we had, then containment might have been far more effective.

IMHO we are just at the starting point...


381 posted on 03/08/2020 11:04:59 PM PDT by Freedom56v2
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To: TECTopcat

Go to this site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
for updated nubmers and you will see that no one, repeat no one under the age of 10 worldwide has died. That is because the virus is mild compared to SARS etc.


Actually, it does not appear related to its mildness. It is a quirk, which has been regarded as puzzling. Not only to those under 10 not die, very few even become ill, or even fewer infected. There are some differences between adults and children physiologically, and a fair number of diseases that affect one or the other more strongly regardless of apparent general health.

An example is some strains of Coxsackievirus, which isn’t generally even treated for children except with Tylenol and lasts about a week, but messes adults up for a couple of months. I know an athlete that caught it from a niece and got to the point of having to rest going up a flight of stairs (it is distantly related to polio, as I understand, but unlike polio seldom has permanent effects).


382 posted on 03/08/2020 11:16:45 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Freedom56v2

Why were we not testing a month ago?


From reports:

The original design of the test kits wasn’t usable without special expertise. It had to be redesigned. Prior to that redesign, there were apparently only 12 labs that could effectively use the kits without giving an excessive number of false results.

Add that to Obama-era regulations which required non-CDC labs to get approval before even testing the kits they designed themselves - so not only the market, but even lab cooperation and innovations were effectively blocked.

It further didn’t help that China wouldn’t allow the CDC to go to China, and would not give viral samples to the US.


383 posted on 03/08/2020 11:22:09 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

We had viral samples from the middle/end of January when the first patient presented in Washington state.

South Korea didn’t get samples any more quickly than we did.

Ditto Japan, Germany, and any other country that has had working tests for nearly a month longer than we did.


384 posted on 03/08/2020 11:26:24 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: TECTopcat
The mortality rate for the wuhan virus varies greatly by age group. Any number that doesn't take this into consideration is misleading - perhaps intentionally so - to the point where elderly persons may endanger themselves due to an incomplete picture of the risks they are facing.


385 posted on 03/08/2020 11:28:42 PM PDT by amorphous
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To: lepton

I believe 1 50 year old has passed and we don’t know if this person had any underlying health issues!!!


386 posted on 03/08/2020 11:36:13 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: lepton

WHO had a test...Our CDC opted to not use it. WHY? Slow walked testing...Why?

Regs should have been peeled back a few weeks ago...Should have encouraged local and state health departments to use other screening.

Sorry CDC was dragging feet...but then so have a lot of other agencies...In the end CDC has a potential crisis on hands and a huge pot of money to use...$8.2B I believe.

I am not at all sure the CDC has been working to help Trump...But then many govt bureaucracies have not ...

Some were issuing clarion call over a month ago...They were mocked...


387 posted on 03/08/2020 11:36:34 PM PDT by Freedom56v2
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To: narses
The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.

I'm not sure what data he's looking at. I've been recording in a spreadsheet the last data posted from Johns Hopkins each day since Jan 25.

Two of the columns I've been saving are automatic calculations of "new cases today" and "new deaths today". If you look at "new cases today" (worldwide) the last several days (starting 2-29), the numbers are 1801, 2090, 1863, 2224, 2265, 2957, 3806, 3973, and today at 3880.

The "new deaths for today" for the same days are 54, 70, 69, 81, 88, 97, 108, 103, and today at 231.

It's interesting (and sad for those affected) to watch and not as ugly as predicted, but I'm not sure how the numbers are considered decreasing.

388 posted on 03/08/2020 11:39:54 PM PDT by FrogMom (Time marches on...)
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To: Travis McGee

man, you cant argue with a ‘true believer’. you are just feeding trolls here


389 posted on 03/08/2020 11:42:34 PM PDT by wafflehouse (RE-ELECT NO ONE !)
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To: narses

L8r


390 posted on 03/08/2020 11:54:13 PM PDT by preacher ( Journalism no longer reports news, they use news to shape our society.)
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To: Moonlighter

Here’s a reference to the source for the “9-days” statement.

https://www.cnet.com/how-to/coronavirus-and-covid-19-everything-you-need-to-know/

How long can the coronavirus survive on surfaces?

There’s still a lot to learn about the hardiness of this particular virus, but similar members of the coronavirus family have been explored in detail, including the coronaviruses responsible for the SARS and MERS outbreaks.

Particularly notable is an article published on Feb. 6 in The Journal of Hospital Infection, which looked at a host of previous studies (22 in total) and found coronaviruses may persist on surfaces for up to nine days.

A chief concern for the public has been whether global package shipments could help spread the virus. Different materials can keep the virus alive for longer outside the body, but a range of factors needs to be taken into account when evaluating virus survival. The CDC is still investigating this but has come up with numbers for certain surfaces.

“On copper and steel it’s pretty typical, it’s pretty much about two hours,” Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, told US lawmakers on Feb. 27, according to a report by Reuters.

“But I will say on other surfaces — cardboard or plastic — it’s longer, and so we are looking at this.”


391 posted on 03/08/2020 11:59:23 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: RummyChick

dont feed the trolls!


392 posted on 03/08/2020 11:59:35 PM PDT by wafflehouse (RE-ELECT NO ONE !)
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To: InterceptPoint

Yes, and even Wikipedia itself can be a fake news source when what’s being discussed are fast moving statistics with political implications.

We need to trust what true experts — at places like the NIH and CDC — are saying.


393 posted on 03/09/2020 12:13:49 AM PDT by poconopundit (Joe Biden has long been the Senate's court jester. He's 24/7 malarkey and more corrupt than Hunter.)
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To: Freedom56v2; Black Agnes

BTW,

I found this:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-test-what-happens-explainer/index.html

Also:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/6/21168028/coronavirus-us-testing-insufficient-covid-19-cdc-fda-international

...
Even if that number were accurate, 1 million tests does not necessarily mean 1 million people tested. Labs are running two tests per patient, as ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen points out.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) created its own test for the novel coronavirus at the start of the outbreak. The agency was quickly able to start testing samples at its central lab in Atlanta. However, testing capacity stalled out when they tried to get testing kits out to local labs: one part of the test kits was contaminated, and the labs weren’t able to validate that they worked. The FDA did not give state labs permission to create their own test, instead of relying on the CDC’s, until February 29th.

In addition, until last week, the CDC only recommended testing for people who had either traveled to a country where the virus was spreading or who had been in contact with someone who had a confirmed case of COVID-19. That’s why, for example, two patients in Washington state were not diagnosed with COVID-19 until a week after their death.

Feb 28th:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

...
Typically, there are few confirmed viral samples from patients at the outset, which researchers need to validate their tests, and CDC has the capability to grow the virus for this critical quality assurance step. Once the agency has a working test, that goes out to state labs. Then, in a third phase, commercial labs take over and either produce their own tests or scale-up the CDC one. “I would have hoped to see that third phase by now,” Borio says.
...
CDC finally started to send kits to state and local health labs on 5 February. But on 12 February, it revealed that several labs had difficulty validating the test because of a problem with one of the reagents.

The key problem with the kits is what’s known as a negative control, says Kelly Wroblewski, director of infectious diseases at the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL). CDC’s test uses the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay to find tiny amounts of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in, say, a nose swab. To make sure a test is working properly, kits also include DNA unrelated to SARS-CoV-2. The assay should not react to this negative control, but the CDC reagents did at many, but not all, state labs. The labs where the negative control failed were not allowed to use the test; they have to continue to send their samples to Atlanta.

...

In principle, many hospital and academic labs around the country have the capability to carry out tests themselves. The PCR reaction uses so-called primers, short stretches of DNA, to find viral sequences. The CDC website posts the primers used in its test, and WHO publicly catalogs other primers and protocols, too. Well-equipped state or local labs can use these—or come up with their own—to produce what are known as a “laboratory-developed tests” for in-house use.

But at the moment, they’re not allowed to do that without FDA approval. When the United States declared the outbreak a public health emergency on 31 January, a bureaucratic process kicked in that requires FDA’s “emergency use approval” for any tests. “The declaration of a public health emergency did exactly what it shouldn’t have. It limited the diagnostic capacity of this country,” Mina says. “It’s insane.”

On 24 February, APHL asked FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn for “enforcement discretion” to sidestep the emergency process and allow APHL members labs to use their own tests. On 26 February, Hahn replied that the CDC test could be modified to use just the primers that specifically detect SARS-CoV-2, essentially ignoring the faulty portion of the kits. FDA, in other words, would look the other way to make more widespread testing possible.


394 posted on 03/09/2020 12:22:18 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

I am really too tired to read all this, but I will tomorrow.

Thank you for taking time to reply.

Freegards!


395 posted on 03/09/2020 12:28:25 AM PDT by Freedom56v2
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To: Freedom56v2

That’s not true. We’ve been testing for nearly a month...just shortly after Wuhan released their info on the virus. You have to have info to know how to test. Can’t make a test before hand

So you are wrong. We were testing a month ago. It is a matter of where the test could be read that limits the number of tests

You have been reading and believing to much SHTF stories. That and you aren’t even following the actual news from the CDC and the WH

Trump put travel restrictions in place Jan 31. That was a biggie.


396 posted on 03/09/2020 1:09:06 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: lepton

Do you think Dr Tony Fauci and his group understands this virus as well as you do? This is the group that is estimating a 0.1% - 1.0% CFR using epidemiological modeling based on the most up to date scientific data they are privy to.


397 posted on 03/09/2020 4:15:52 AM PDT by tatown
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To: wardaddy
30 dollar a barrel oil is harmful?

Absolutely. If you think it’s just about the price of gas at the pump you are extremely misinformed. It will affect every industry. Thousands of jobs will be lost.

398 posted on 03/09/2020 4:53:51 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: unixfox

Since when do off shoring production free trader H-1B loving Freepers care about Americans losing their jobs? I wish hypocrites would shut the H up.


399 posted on 03/09/2020 4:56:42 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn....)
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To: DouglasKC
"Why on God's green earth would ANY country go through what EVERY country is doing to slow down or stop this IF it's effects are simply like that of the flu?"

Because they believe the media, not the facts.

400 posted on 03/09/2020 5:13:38 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (Calm down and enjoy the ride, great things are happening for our country)
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