Another contrived "crisis" the DUmocrats and the DNC media let slip through their fingers!
Posted on 03/08/2020 6:00:55 PM PDT by narses
With coronavirus death toll in the U.S. rising to 19, people are becoming increasing afraid of contracting the disease. To date, there are 3,803 reported deaths with 109,835 confirmed cases worldwide. Also a total of 60,694 people have recovered from the virus. As the fear of coronavirus continues to spread, there are a growing number of reports of empty shop shelves as people rush to stock up on basic products such as hand soap, sanitizers, tissue papers, and many more. It got so bad that some stores are now limiting purchases of these products, more due to coronavirus fears.
The fears stem from the misleading information coming from mainstream media about the trend of the virus. The media shows the number of fatalities continuously increasing, on a time-based graph. The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.
Hats off to Evan at TradeGuru, who first noticed the discrepancy in media’s cumulative statistics and created a more accurate chart. According to Evan’s analysis using the raw data provided by John Hopkins University, “the virus is decreasing in hotspots such as South Korea, China and Hong Kong (the first to deal with the novel virus). The press tells us it’s an outbreak, or a pandemic on the precipice. Both situations would suggest exponential growth. The actual data doesn’t suggest exponential growth of fatalities at all. The data suggests decline. In fact, the crude death rate is statistically 0.”
Also, it’s now being estimated that 80% of individuals that contract the coronavirus are asymptomatic or midly-symptomatic. And in this viral video, Rebecca Fraiser says she “never really felt unwell” after contracting the virus, and it “sounds like it is the case for the majority of people.”
This decline wiped out small margin players two weeks ago.
The big guys (investment banks) are going down with the oil collapse.
blood oxygen saturation <=93%
Oh but don't worry. We've been told that those 20% who are NOT mild will go to the hospital and be sent home. Who cares if they're unconscious or can't breath. They're not dying!
“The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%,” Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. “That’s lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it’s not likely in the range of 2 to 3%”
“So you have no idea what you read there? That *complete* failure pretty much tosses the rest of your analysis in the trash.”
Oh no, you compared COVID-19 to RICIN and a 100% death rate. You are funny man.
Links? (In reference to flu epidemics in the Washington Nursing home)
And they have.
dropping oils prices don’t hurt you ... but they are a decent leading indicator of a future economic slowdown ... which could cause layoffs …
Another contrived "crisis" the DUmocrats and the DNC media let slip through their fingers!
I agree, the panic is dumb. Very Rat like.
Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge
_______________________________
And who is he?
Thanks for the link. I do note “models”, not “studies”, and no reference given for assumptions or sources. Sigh.
It’d be nice if he is correct in regards actual outcomes, but that statement leaves a whole lot to be desired. IOW, it sounds like he is saying a lot more there than he actually is.
Many more Chinese men died than women.
Likely older.....and maybe/likely smokers...
Yes, smoking was the exact risk factor I in the post I was responding to. I was just adding the particular M:F mortality ratios merely alluded to in the previous post.
We still don’t know what the error rates (false positives, false negatives) are for COVID-19 tests in various countries. I suspect there is large variability because it’s a new test. Who knows how many COVID-19 results may actually be some other virus, or vice versa?
This thing is a problem. It’s not the end of the world. If we take reasonable precautions, the more diligently we take them, the less we will need them.
For example, are there uncaptured infected? Assuredly. Are there 7 million of them, which was what it would have required last Friday in order to cause the math to give mortality rates similar to a bad flu? Very unlikely.
Reporters and the news media in general think that statistical analysis is a simple business of gathering numbers and putting them in columns. They have no idea it is much more complicated than that. And certainly far more complicated than a bunch of partisan hacks could understand.
Remember, these are people that believe their own polls
Keeping especially in mind that that was a tweet/post previously found by Brian Williams hours before and that he’d been thinking about, on a prepared segment, likely with at least a few hours and a staff to at least glance at it, and they still botched it so badly.
agree-it’s like the people who slow to look at an auto accident but what is dismaying is how many people are posting alarmist rumors on the FR Live Thread while it is clear to many that the aim of a lot of this is political. slow the economy and you get rid of Trump
Oh no, you compared COVID-19 to RICIN and a 100% death rate. You are funny man.
I used a clear-cut *example*, heavily simplified to eliminate elements not linked to the methodology, to illustrate how absurd the methodology is, and you still failed.
That example was not an examination of COVID-19. It was an expository for the failure to execute a basic mathematical word problem suitable for early junior high school.
If one cannot perform the word problem correctly, then one gets an answer which has a wildly different meaning than what they think it means, even if they can get an answer when they plug the numbers into a calculator.
Go to this site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
for updated nubmers and you will see that no one, repeat no one under the age of 10 worldwide has died. That is because the virus is mild compared to SARS etc. The death rate is much lower than reported because most cases are mild, and unreported that is why 3 UCLA students were suspected of having it and they tested negative and just have a cold.
Both HHS and New England Journal of Medicine now say its between 0.1% and 1%.
On Thursday HHS Assistant Secretary Admiral Brett Giroir told reporters,
“The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%. That’s lower than you heard probably in many reports … it’s not likely in the range of 2 to 3%.”
This puts coronavirus on par with a typical flu epidemic to something slightly higher — NOT something like a SARS or MERS virus with a much higher mortality rate.
Via NBC News.
New England Journal of Medicine :
many corona virus cases are so mild they’re not even being reported, Fauci explained in an editorial he co-wrote in the same issue of the NEJM. Co-authors include Dr. Robert Redfield, who directs the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director of the NIAID.
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Dr. Fauci and his colleagues explained.
“This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968],” the experts wrote.
When it comes to market manipulations, I smell a rat. A big one, named Soros.
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