Posted on 03/08/2020 6:00:55 PM PDT by narses
With coronavirus death toll in the U.S. rising to 19, people are becoming increasing afraid of contracting the disease. To date, there are 3,803 reported deaths with 109,835 confirmed cases worldwide. Also a total of 60,694 people have recovered from the virus. As the fear of coronavirus continues to spread, there are a growing number of reports of empty shop shelves as people rush to stock up on basic products such as hand soap, sanitizers, tissue papers, and many more. It got so bad that some stores are now limiting purchases of these products, more due to coronavirus fears.
The fears stem from the misleading information coming from mainstream media about the trend of the virus. The media shows the number of fatalities continuously increasing, on a time-based graph. The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.
Hats off to Evan at TradeGuru, who first noticed the discrepancy in media’s cumulative statistics and created a more accurate chart. According to Evan’s analysis using the raw data provided by John Hopkins University, “the virus is decreasing in hotspots such as South Korea, China and Hong Kong (the first to deal with the novel virus). The press tells us it’s an outbreak, or a pandemic on the precipice. Both situations would suggest exponential growth. The actual data doesn’t suggest exponential growth of fatalities at all. The data suggests decline. In fact, the crude death rate is statistically 0.”
Also, it’s now being estimated that 80% of individuals that contract the coronavirus are asymptomatic or midly-symptomatic. And in this viral video, Rebecca Fraiser says she “never really felt unwell” after contracting the virus, and it “sounds like it is the case for the majority of people.”
Likely older.....and maybe/likely smokers...
Risk factors go up...for those two things...
People that get bad pulmonary DZ...can be genetically likely to have bad lungs...and can't fight off PNA, ARDS, etc..etc...
I've seen COPD'ers in their 50's that are actually pulmonary cripples...Didn't have that many "pack years"...but their lungs were shot. That's bad genetics.
I've seen 80 yr old folks that smoked for 60 years...and yea they ain't in great shape...but they are still living.
It's a combo deal...and many factors involved.
Instead of insults REFUTE the data. You won't because you can't.
“Instead of insults REFUTE the data. You won’t because you can’t.”
Except I did, and you ignored the data I posted and made up nonsense as a rebuttal.
You lose.
You hit the nail squarely on the head, you win!
Automatic triggers will be in effect tonight if the major indices drop more than 5%. Also, the Fed will likely intervene and slash rates again at the next FOMC meeting. Too early to tell if the market S#** will HTF.
The % needing ICU can only be known when large numbers of people are tested. WHen that is done, such as in South Korea, turns out that many more people have it than was thought, often with no or very mild symptoms. So your assertions of % neeing ICU is way, way off.
Facts are what is important, not high emotional freakouts.
narses, there is really no point in trying to reason with someone who is being so unreasonable, this BS really has to stop this hysteria is absolutely out of control and the media is absolutely gleeful that they have been able to do this!! I am beyond disappointed in people on this site that are normally VERY SMART people but have thrown reason right out the window!!! If people on THIS site is throwing reason out the window our economy doesn’t stand a chance, and get ready for POTUS Biden!!!
Will Meade thinks we get a bottom this week and the fed will drop rates
We will see.
I suspect there will be an intervention
Btw, Oil futures trade on MARGIN...and you bet there are margin calls on this:
btw, I Have had some really really interesting trades on Friday expiration for oil options. They are not liquid and have wide spreads. Been awhile since I did it...but you can watch for calls or puts going for pennies that turn around and zoom your way. It is called a lotto. Not all turn out .
Still no dead in Germany. Interesting.
Either way, there are a number of countries with no dead, and no recovered.
We still don’t know what the error rates (false positives, false negatives) are for COVID-19 tests in various countries. I suspect there is large variability because it’s a new test. Who knows how many COVID-19 results may actually be some other virus, or vice versa?
the trends worldwide are flattening out.
Dry air makes your mucus membranes much more virus hospitable.
35 years ago an allergist told me that and said to run a steam vaporizer ANY time the heat was running. We followed that advice and our winter colds decreased by at least 50%.
So I think that gives the false impression that the number of new US cases is quickly increasing.
Institution of widespread testing will indeed pick up pre-existing cases that were just floating out there, but that effect will stop after an initial surge. By the end of the week, that surge - to the extent it exists more than trivially - from this cause will largely be over.
Most of the cases coming forwards are still not community-spread. They may have come from someone who is not linked to a known previous case, but most of them can be traced back.
Plenty here gonna disagree vociferously
Reporters and the news media in general think that statistical analysis is a simple business of gathering numbers and putting them in columns. They have no idea it is much more complicated than that. And certainly far more complicated than a bunch of partisan hacks could understand.
Remember, these are people that believe their own polls
Thanks for the information.
Who knows, if Iran really goes to the devil with this virus, some fanatic mullahs may decide, what the heck, the 12th Imam is coming back, so let’s attack Israel while we can...Another Gulf war would certainly turn oil around fast.
More likely, a prolonged oil price depression will devastate Russia just like in the mid 1980s.
Strange times indeed.
But it looks as if the people who are dying are high risk patients -— old and/or medically unstable.
Most people, most of the time, don’t consider 50-year olds to be “elderly”.
HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED and CONFIRMED CASES:
Unknown...214
Cluster a community in New Rochelle, N.Y....54
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash...51
Diamond Princess cruise ship...43
Personal contact in U.S...39
Travel overseas...30
Travel in Italy...28
Business conference in Boston...22
Travel in Egypt...19
Grand Princess cruise ship...17
Travel in China...15
Travel within the U.S...7
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif...3
Travel in Iran...1
Travel in South Korea..1
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
30 dollar a barrel oil is harmful?
“If you were to replace “Coronavirus” with “Ricin”, and inject 100 people with a dose which would kill 100% in a week, then every day double the number of people you give the injection, using the deaths/cases method, after one week you would have a fatality/injection ratio of 0.78% (100/12,700), for a 100% fatal toxin.”
Well, OK then. If the coronavirus had a 100% fatal death rate, we would be screwed. Got it..
What it is an example of, is the commonly used bad methodology misrepresenting a 100% fatality rate as less than 1%.
Literacy, good. Obtuseness, bad.
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