Posted on 03/07/2020 11:33:25 AM PST by Captain Peter Blood
In doing a cursory look at some recent past Pandemics, Flu related I found the following:
Asian Flu
Another flu pandemic, the "Asian Flu" began in East Asia in 1957, according to the CDC. That specific influenza virus was an H2N2 strain, which was first detected in Singapore in February 1957. From there, the virus made its way to Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in the summer of 1957. An estimated 1.1 million people died of the Asian flu worldwide, with 116,000 of them in the United States.
1968 Flu Pandemic
The flu pandemic of 1968—also called the Hong Kong Flu—originated in China in July 1968, according to Encyclopaedia Britannica. Caused by an influenza A virus (H3N2), it was the third pandemic flu outbreak to occur in the 20th century, killing one million people worldwide and about 100,000 people in the US alone.
According to Encyclopaedia Brittanica, it's believed that 1957's Asian Flu pandemic may have given rise to the 1968 pandemic through a process called "antigenic shift," in which there are small changes to the genes of a flu virus which can lead to changes in the surface proteins of a virus—HA (hemagglutinin) and NA (neuraminidase)—which trigger the body's immune response. Ultimately, those antigenic shifts, is why people can get the flu more than once, according to the CDC, and why a yearly flu vaccine is necessary for the best protection against the virus and its ever-changing nature.
2009 Flu Pandemic
The most recent flu pandemic in the US, initially known as "swine flu," occurred in 2009 with a novel influenza virus, H1N1, not previously identified in either animals or humans, per the CDC. The virus was actually first detected in the US, and spread quickly cross the US and the world. According to the CDC, between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the US due to the virus. The CDC also estimated that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.
According to the CDC, the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and middle-aged adults (older adults had immunity, likely from a previous exposure to a similar H1N1 virus). And while the pandemic officially ended on August 10, 2010, the (H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, causing illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year.
In each of these recent cases the number of people that died is pretty staggering, yet I don't don't know whether there was a panic like we are seeing with the Coronavirus.
I was a kid during the Hong Kong Flu epidemic, 13, and I can't recall if there was any kind of panic then.
Right now with this Pandemic, we are not seeing the kind of deaths yet that previous ones have had, of course we don't know exactly what the real story in China is.
The question is are we overreacting on this or not enough?
What we know is this virus for most is mild and people recover, some of the death rate clusters are being seen in Nursing Homes, and those have compromised immune systems from various diseases.
I believe one factor causing the panic is the fact this virus can spread easily and even by people who are asymptomatic.
Thanks.
You’ve posted death totals.
Not death rates.
Give it 6 months and we’ll have a death rate to compare to previous death rates.
2009 Flu Pandemic
The most recent flu pandemic in the US, initially known as “swine flu,” occurred in 2009 with a novel influenza virus, H1N1, not previously identified in either animals or humans, per the CDC. The virus was actually first detected in the US, and spread quickly cross the US and the world. According to the CDC, between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the US due to the virus. The CDC also estimated that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.
And hardly a mention of this in the commie media at the time. I hardly even remember the Swine Flu, no one made a fuss about it, gee I wonder why, who was President at that time, thinking, thinking...
I was interested in what the death rates were with the previous epidemics. While we don’t know what the end result here will be given the mortality rate of the previous ones, are we seeing anything like that now?
The hysteria we are seeing is news media social media induced.
Politicians have politicized it and the media has over hyped it; meanwhile regular flu deaths in the us have claimed over 105 children.
1918 Influenza (Spanish flu) killed over 50 million when world population was about 2 billion. Don’t know the actual or estimated rate. This seemed to last nearly 3 years.
More at WIKI.
Strangely, swine flu appeared quite soon after he returned from a trip to Mexico, a day or two. I always wondered about the timing.
There is a cemetery in west-central Texas near our family ranch. There are many headstones there with death dates in 1918. Most are infants and toddlers. It’s very sobering to walk through them.
wayyy off topic.
I’m hoping that the single use bags will be brought back in NYS. What better place for the virus to hang out in than the reusable bags they’ve been selling.
The 5 cent paper bags are now called nickel bags. LOL
Your right about that.
Somebody should bring that up to Cuomo...because you are right
Glad you asked..here’s something I wrote up for family members on a FB discussion about CV-19 we’re having..
One final thing that might help put all this in perspective..there are estimates from credible experts (see https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for) including a leading epidemiologist who’s the Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard and a biostatistician to the WHO that CV-19 will infect up to 40-70% of the global population (Harvard estimate) or up to two-thirds (WHO biostatistician estimate). Let’s assume those are both wildly pessimistic (OK, doom and gloom, totally wrong), and it instead infects “only” 10% vs the 40-70% or 66% number those guys are using. With 7.8 Billion people worldwide, a very conservative 10% infection rate would affect 780 million people. With a current CFR of 3.4% (God helps us if that holds), that’s 26.5M dead globally. IF (and it’s a big IF), the CFR drops to Spanish Flu levels of ~2%, that’s still 15.6M people. An optimistic (and unlikely) 1% still gets us to 7.8M people. (At 40% [low end of Harvard estimate] and current CFR of 3.4%, 106.8M people. Don’t run the math on the high end!) Those obviously are staggering numbers and seem completely unbelievable..but that’s what Harvard, the WHO and others are projecting. So, to XXX’s original “do you really believe” question..the calculations using very conservative numbers much less (10% vs. 40-70%) than what the “experts” are saying sure seems to bear that out. Not trying to scare anyone but I do see too much “it’s just like the flu and no big deal!” going around..and that’s equally frightening if any of this does come to pass.. Let’s hope and pray that these guys are way off and that it does wind up not being as big of a deal as it seems like it will be.
There’s also the study (which I believe was from a major University in Australia) posted on Drudge last night that predicts from 15M (”best case”) to 68M (”worst case”) dead worldwide, with 260K - 1M+ of those in the US.
Then, there’s the American Hospital Association presentation linked from Business Insider that says the AHA is preparing for 96 million (!) cases in the US, with ~480K dead.
Hope that helps..I’m fairly frustrated at all the “it’s no big deal!” posts as I’ve been reading literally hundreds of articles since the end of Jan or so on this. It IS a (very) big deal and could be the most significant event any of us have ever seen. I PRAY that I am wrong, but my gut says that I (unfortunately) won’t be.
Probably going to be young spread it. Oldies die.
Middle age survive after going through hell..or minor flu.
Election demographics changed 10-20 years sooner than they would otherwise have.
Comparisons to the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 are very valid, as this has a "R0" (infectious spread) rate HIGHER than that of the Spanish Flu. Death rate (CFR) is also significantly higher (currently at 3.4% vs 2'ish% for SF). Add in global air travel with thousands of flights per day, subways, busses, mass transit, etc..and you have the makings of a total global disaster.
The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1920 was the mother of all pandemics.
“The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.”
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
That POTUS whom nobody can remember also didn’t declare a state of emergency until over 1000 Americans were dead.
Why are they so upset this time around? Look what the impact of this has been on the economy. People afraid to shop. People afraid to travel. People afraid to attend events because of the crowds. (March Madness).
This is the only way the Left can slow down a booming economy and the reelection of Trump. “It’s the economy, stupid”. They just couldn’t let all the good news continue. So they sacrifice their own people who will be laid off when industry cuts back. Crazy Bernie and Slo Joe are the best they can do and they feel helpless. This is definitely a media induced hysteria.
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