Posted on 03/06/2020 11:10:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Large-scale testing in South Korea has provided perhaps the most credible look at the lethality of the new coronavirus as it continues its global spread.
Within a month of confirming its first case of the new coronavirus on January 20, South Korea had tested nearly 8,000 people suspected of infection. A little over a week later, that number had soared to 82,000 as health officials mobilized to carry out as many 10,000 tests each day.
Neighboring Japan, on the other hand, tested only a fraction of that number, with fewer than 2,000 people checked on any given day since the beginning of its outbreak in late January.
So far, more than 6,000 cases have been confirmed in South Korea and over 1,000 in Japan, if you include the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined in the Port of Yokohoma.
In the United States, where the number of confirmed cases has surpassed 200, health authorities had as recently as this week tested fewer than 500 people in total, hindered by legal and technical barriers to mass screening.
Which is where South Korea’s massive testing effort can come in, providing a valuable reference point for public health experts around the world who are starved of hard data – offering potentially the most comprehensive picture yet of the threat posed by Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, to the general public.
And while experts caution that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, the picture emerging in South Korea – which has the most confirmed cases outside China but with a more transparent political environment – suggests the virus could be less lethal than patchier data emerging from elsewhere.
(Excerpt) Read more at inkstonenews.com ...
Thanks!
They show 6%.
My calculations show 5.8%...
Yep - the rate is somewhere between -.1% and 1.0% - the “fudge factor” is in how many have it and who are not feeling ill, or not ill enough to seek medical aid.
There are probably a minimum of 3 times the reported/verified cases of infection and possibly more than that where the infected aren’t in distress.
The sad thing is that when we start to get better numbers of such “good news cases”, the left will use higher numbers of cases to try to increase the irrational panic...
Must really suck to be a leftists where the best thing that can happen for one’s agenda is for the maximum angst among the People.
Check off another box in the germ warfare check list.
High fatalities among those deliberately infected (i.e. on the battlefield) lower fatality rates in secondary infections (i.e. the civilian population you wish to subjugate)
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Tuesday said the global mortality rate from Covid-19 recorded so far was about 3.4%,
I always wonder about accuracy of testing. It must be highly inaccurate.
We work with food plants that must test very common bacteria (not even viruses) like E. coli or Lysteria on a regular basis. Standardized tests have existed for decades. Even then, we see quite different results depending on who did the test, at what time, and the laboratory that processed the sample.
Now consider that Coronavirus is a new disease, discovered only 3 months ago. Is it really possible that the whole world will develop one testing standard, manufactured to exactly the same standards across the world, that is administered in exactly the same way by hundreds of thousands of different people? Impossible.
42 Deaths + 135 Recoveries = 177 Concluded Cases
24% Death Rate = 42 Deaths / 177 Concluded Cases
From the Johns Hopkins data for South Korea you cited.
Great article on this...
https://alfinnextlevel.wordpress.com/2020/03/06/chinese-virology-and-the-cycle-of-life-and-death/
Here is a fair explanation of why a lot of numbers being passed around are not merely incomplete (as all are at the moment), but in error.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
Cohort studies combined with large-scale random sampling are the way to go so you don’t have to wait until the outbreak is over, but it is only barely getting to be appropriate to do those, as so many cases are unresolved.
If we take the active cases, and assume everybody who has “mild” symptoms will recover, and everybody listed as “serious” or “critical” will die, the current count for Korea would be a death rate of about 1.4%. That sets what I believe to be the high bound, because we know that some critical cases recover, and a lot of the serious cases recover.
The “death” number is a leading indicator, because a lot of people who are going to die die in the first few days after they are detected, while the recovery group all lasts at least 2 weeks before they go into the “resolved” status.
“If the mortality rate is 0.64%, then it is like playing Russian Roulette with 156 chambers in the pistol. Or 26 six shooters with only one chambered round.”
I was told there would be no math
Symptoms of covid-19 are similar to flu, and we already know tens of thousands are sick with flu. So is it flu or covid-19?
The doom trolls won’t be happy with this story.
You are correct the completed case death rate is 24%, but honestly reporting that would stampede the herd!
On the bright side the same formula applied to survivors, 135 recovered cases/177 concluded cases says the case recovery rate is 76%.
hmmmm. 76%+24%=100%...
Yep - the rate is somewhere between -.1% and 1.0% - the “fudge factor” is in how many have it and who are not feeling ill, or not ill enough to seek medical aid.
There are probably a minimum of 3 times the reported/verified cases of infection and possibly more than that where the infected aren’t in distress.
I’m more worried about Y2K
42 Deaths + 135 Recoveries = 177 Concluded Cases
Only if you are old or in ill health. I think anyone healthy and under 55 has a much lower chance of death. If you’re a kid or a healthy adult under 35 I don’t think you have much to worry about.
Also as more young people catch the disease and have a mild case they will build up immunity. I think That this new virus is no worse than any other cold caused by a coronavirus, it’s just that no one has built up an immunity to it from being exposed to it in childhood.
null and void wrote:
“
From the Johns Hopkins site:
SK cases 6593
Deaths 42
0.6% mortality rate
From the Johns Hopkins site:
SK cases 6593
Recovered 135
2.0% survival rate
What is the status of the missing 97.4%?
Are they in the same box as Schrödinger’s cat?”
Thanks for the info!
Results can indeed very widely, depending on what data is input.
For what it’s worth. I work for the VA. At my location they are now checking PIV cards and closing entrances. Anyone with a positive screen will go to a separate triage area.
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