Posted on 03/06/2020 11:10:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Large-scale testing in South Korea has provided perhaps the most credible look at the lethality of the new coronavirus as it continues its global spread.
Within a month of confirming its first case of the new coronavirus on January 20, South Korea had tested nearly 8,000 people suspected of infection. A little over a week later, that number had soared to 82,000 as health officials mobilized to carry out as many 10,000 tests each day.
Neighboring Japan, on the other hand, tested only a fraction of that number, with fewer than 2,000 people checked on any given day since the beginning of its outbreak in late January.
So far, more than 6,000 cases have been confirmed in South Korea and over 1,000 in Japan, if you include the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined in the Port of Yokohoma.
In the United States, where the number of confirmed cases has surpassed 200, health authorities had as recently as this week tested fewer than 500 people in total, hindered by legal and technical barriers to mass screening.
Which is where South Korea’s massive testing effort can come in, providing a valuable reference point for public health experts around the world who are starved of hard data – offering potentially the most comprehensive picture yet of the threat posed by Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, to the general public.
And while experts caution that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, the picture emerging in South Korea – which has the most confirmed cases outside China but with a more transparent political environment – suggests the virus could be less lethal than patchier data emerging from elsewhere.
(Excerpt) Read more at inkstonenews.com ...
VARYING MORTALITY RATE FIGURES
One question puzzling disease experts has been Covid-19’s mortality rate, which has seemingly ranged from 2-3% in China up to 10% in Iran, based on official numbers – though given the opaque nature of both countries’ political systems, these figures have been dogged by doubts, with some scientists suggesting that the illness caused by the new coronavirus is actually less deadly than the severe acute respiratory syndrome.
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Tuesday said the global mortality rate from Covid-19 recorded so far was about 3.4%, higher than previous estimates – though this figure was accompanied by caveats that the rate could be lower when more was known about the disease.
Yet in South Korea, where the country’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday reported 6,284 cases and 40 deaths, the mortality rate appears to be hovering around 0.64%.
I understand that those tested drove to healthcare worker who tested them in car.
This saves a trip inside with crowd of people.
Objective testing is all...
Doesn’t it depend on which strain you contract?
From the Johns Hopkins site:
SK cases 6593
Deaths 42
0.6% mortality rate
From the Johns Hopkins site:
SK cases 6593
Recovered 135
2.0% survival rate
What is the status of the missing 97.4%?
Are they in the same box as Schrödinger’s cat?
RE: What is the status of the missing 97.4%?
They are considered ACTIVE (under treatment and observation). We can only hope they eventually result in recoveries and not deaths.
No one knows how many are infected with shortage of test-kits.
Symptoms of covid-19 are similar to flu, and we already know tens of thousands are sick with flu. So is it flu or covid-19?
Yet with an unknown outcome, they are used to generate outcome statistics, by assuming they will all live!
Do you really see nothing wrong with that assumption?
I’ve been looking at the stats here. Perhaps it may help you?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
RE: Doesn’t it depend on which strain you contract?
According to scientific analysis:
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463
Two strains of the new coronavirus are spreading around the world, according to an analysis of 103 cases. But the World Health Organization insists that “there is no evidence that the virus has been changing”.
When Xiaolu Tang at Peking University in Beijing and colleagues studied the viral genome taken from 103 cases, they found common mutations at two locations on the genome.
The team identified two types of the virus based on differences in the genome at these two regions:
* 72 were considered to be the “L-type” and
* 29 were classed “S-type”.
A separate analysis by the team suggests that the L-type was derived from the older S-type.
The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other.
In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.
SEE HERE:
Schroedinger, Erwin, professor of physics,
Wrote daring equations, confounded his critics!
(Not bad, eh? Don’t worry. This part of the verse,
Starts off pretty good, but it gets a lot worse.)
Win saw that the theory that Newton’d invented,
By Einstein’s discoveries had been badly dented.
“What now?” wailed his colleagues. Said Erwin, “Don’t panic,
No grease monkey I, but a quantum mechanic.
Consider electrons. Now, these teeny articles,
Are sometimes like waves, and then sometimes like particles.
If that’s not confusing, the nuclear dance,
Of electrons and suchlike is governed by chance!
No sweat, though, my theory permits us to judge,
Where some of them is and the rest of them was.”
Not everyone bought this. It threatened to wreck,
The comforting linkage of cause and effect.
Even Einstein had doubts, and so Schroedinger tried,
To tell him what quantum mechanics implied.
Said Win to Al, “Brother, suppose we’ve a cat,
And inside a tube we have put that cat at,
Along with a solitaire deck, and some Fritos,
A bottle of Night Train, a couple mosquitoes,
(Or something else rhyming) and, oh, if you got ‘em,,
One vial, prussic acid, one decaying ottom,
Or atom - whatever - but when it emits,
A trigger device blasts the vial into bits,
Which snuffs our poor kitty. The odds of this crime,
Are 50 to 50 per hour each time.
The cylinder’s sealed. The hours pass away. Is,
Our pussy still purring? Or pushing up daisies?
Now, you’d say that the cat either lives or it don’t,
But quantum mechanics is stubborn and won’t.
Statistically speaking, the cat (goes the joke),
Is half a cat breathing and half a cat croaked.
To some this may seem a ridiculous split,
But quantum mechanics must answer, “Tough shit!”
We may not know much, but one thing’s for sho’:
There are things in the cosmos that we cannot know.
Shine light on electrons - you’ll cause them to swerve.
The act of observing disturbs the observed.
Which ruins your test. But then if there’s no testing,
To see if a particle’s moving or resting,
Why try to conjecture? Pure useless endeavor!
We know probability. But certainty? Never.
The effect of this notion? I very much fear,
‘Twill make doubtful all things that were formerly clear.
Till soon the cat doctors will say in reports,
“We’ve just flipped a coin and we’ve learned he’s a corpse.”
So saith Herr Erwin. Quoth Albert, “You’re nuts.
God doesn’t play dice with the universe, putz.
I’ll prove it!” he said, and the Lord knows he tried.
In vain, until finally he more or less died.
Win spoke at the funeral: “Listen, dear friends,
Sweet Al was my buddy. I must make amends.
Though he doubted my theory, I’ll say of this saint:
Ten-to-one he’s in heaven—but five bucks says he ain’t.”
“What is the status of the missing 97.4%? Are they in the same box as Schrödinger’s cat?”
I feel like they’re trolling us, by classifying active cases with recovered cases. Anyway, I’m sure you’re prepped too - and them, they can join the sneezing crowds lining up at Costco.
How come seven paragraphs in the article still hasn’t stated lethality rate in Korea?
Love it.
And by the way, God does nothing but play dice with the universe...
If the mortality rate is 0.64%, then it is like playing Russian Roulette with 156 chambers in the pistol. Or 26 six shooters with only one chambered round.
Ka ching
“What is the status of the missing 97.4%?”
You dont medically “recover” from a flu (or whatever term some people want to use so they arent offended by such a “simplistic” term) for a while after the you feel better.
You are still going to feel under the weather and slow for a while, and you are still a little contagious.
“in South Korea, where the country’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday reported 6,284 cases and 40 deaths, the mortality rate appear”
It’s that or less in Guangdong province in China also.
Guangdong has the second highest number of cases in China and mortality rate is about ten times less than Hubei.
Guangdong is by far the most modern and advanced region of China.
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