Posted on 03/04/2020 6:40:52 AM PST by dangus
Way back, in January, BEFORE Xi's announcements, I noted that the novel Coronavirus (nCov) had reached an inflection point and would soon be declining. I had even waited a few days to confirm the trend. Over the last few days, there have been only 10 official cases outside Wuhan province, and only a few hundred each day inside Wuhan. The great Chinese lie wasn't that nCov wasn't destroying civilization; it was that it wasn't nearly as contagious as the Chinese were letting on.
We can see that now in South Korea and Italy. There's less data, and it's less centralized, so the data is "noisier" than in China. But it seems that on March 3 and March 4, Korea had fewer cases (1,286) than on February 29 and March 1 (1,399). And I may be jumping the gun in Italy, but there were fewer cases on March 2 and 3 (342 and 466) than on March 1 (566).
There are no great factories of incineration. To all the people who think that sulfur compounds in air pollution means burning bodies, coal and oil also have sulfur. So if Chinese cities quit importing gas and fall back on coal and oil, there's your sulfur.
So how did it spread through the Diamond Princess? Well, I'm not privy to any inside information, but coronaviruses are colds. Colds take a long while before they cause symptoms. My guess is that nCov had swept through the ship BEFORE the quarantine.
We're seeing this in Washington state. The virus has been there for six weeks, running unchecked, and only now, we're finding out about it... and in nursing homes.
nCov is a serious matter. Viruses swap technology, and we now have something I've feared since I was a college student in the 1990s: a cold virus has some AIDS technology. And 2% of the people who contract this virus will die. (Or maybe less... it strikes smokers hard.) We learned a LOT of lessons from real-world drills. But when you read about it sweeping America, remain calm folks.
There is no point in panic. That achieves nothing worthwhile.
I do, however, suspect that this is a Chinese bioweapon, and I have to admit that thought is scary.
If it’s getting better why did Italy just announce it’s considering closing schools and colleges for the next two weeks. Just announced.
Or even that it’s a test.
The actions of government will always lead to non sequitur. The outbreak *is* widespread in Italy. That’s why they’re closing the schools. But you’ll note that I also said “I may be jumping the gun in Italy.”
To press the advantage?
Like what type of question is that?
You guys blows this stuff up to hell and gone, then act astonished when these people take measures to meet your expectations.
What did China DO to achieve their reductions?
Can you envision those techniques here?
Even if it’s in decline, hundreds of new cases are still concerning. Closing schools and limited social contact are effective ways of disrupting the chain of infection.
Folks around here like to grumble when school districts close because of flu cases, but it seems to slow the spread, or even stop it.
I can’t imagine the U.S. doing what China has done, but I can’t imagine it being necessary anymore. The number dead in China is a small portion of the number dead from the flu in the U.S.
Aren’t the majority of cases in northern Italy?
Some Coronaviruses cause colds. That doesn’t make the terms interchangeable.
Last night Korea had another big upswing in new cases.
A lot of FReepers will be disappointed at this news.
And since we don’t have complete population data, that 2% figure is not known.
Those that have been passing the 2% fatality figure around have been basing it on plainly bad math.
Coronavirus seems to kill those who are already at deaths door.
You mean besides the CCP ordering local officials to report smaller numbers of new infections? I don't believe any numbers being reported out of China. I'm watching South Korea and Italy to get a real feel for what's going on. I'm not too concerned but still totally skeptical about any news out of China.
Yup. There is no way to calculate an accurate mortality rate since the “had it but recovered” side of the equation is a huge unknown. Many people had no idea they had this and certainly did not report it.
“The great Chinese lie wasn’t that nCov wasn’t destroying civilization; it was that it wasn’t nearly as contagious as the Chinese were letting on.”
Any chance you can restate that without the quadruple negative?
It’s doesn’t need to have a high mortality rate though.
It only needs to cause fear and panic.
A high mortality rate, in some ways, is not beneficial, because it can burn itself out quickly.
What it really needs to do is turn its victims in to virus manufacturing plants while leaving them alive long enough to spread it.
Someone should hit abuse and demand this thread be pulled.
We could lose a lot of Freepers to burst vessels otherwise
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