Coronavirus Live Thread. 6.

2/27/20

[Vermont Lt]

Continuation of the thread

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3820145/posts

[mom aka the evil dictator]

Inverted generators cost more, but use less fuel and are much quieter. Youngest child has two generators, one of which is inverted, and survived three weeks without power. Now he is looking for a dual fuel one.

[Paul R.]

Is there more than one strain of Coronavirus? Is this thing mutating quickly? Is this why the rest of China appear to been spared?

"Possible", but there is an already obvious cause:

Wuhan was harder hit than the rest of China because the virus was well established there by the time cases started showing up elsewhere. China imposed it's lockdown, slowing the spread outside Hubei province to a rate that was manageable, and health care resources could (so far as we know) keep up.

In Hubei Province, even with the pop up hospitals built, and so on, the health care system was overwhelmed because the virus, in effect, got out too far ahead. That in turn lead to a higher fatality rate.

The big question to me is whether China can reopen for business without a 2nd wave of infections, prior to the arrival of substantially warmer weather.

[Black Agnes]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/01/10/u-s-mint-samoan-fruit-bat-new-quarter-2020/4433464002/

!!??

[greeneyes]

Dr. Doom and Bloom explains the masks this way—surgical mask for the patient to prevent his droplets from spreading.

N95-100 for person caring for the patient to further protect the caregiver. Also disposable coverings, goggles, face shield, gloves and shoe coverings. A cotton ball with a little tea tree oil for the ears.

Plastic to cover the doorway, and to build an entry way so that gear can be taken off before entering the rest of the home-ie a sick room for the patient with it’s own bathroom.

Hazardous waste bags for the masks, and disposable gloves etc. also in the room. Clear the room of all unnecessary stuff so that it surfaces can be cleaned and disinfected daily.

That’s about all I remember from their hand book.

[greeneyes]

Tongue in cheek. One way to solve the overabundance of men to women with the one child policy.
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Wow-that’s true—I hadn’t thought of that one.

[Paul R.]

Thanks for posting that. It’s precisely the information I’ve been hoping someone would find.

Freakin’ bureaucracy...

THIS is why we need someone with the authority of the Vice President to blast this BS out of the way.

There was more than one hoarse voice at that presser today. I’ll bet Pres. Trump was VERY close to chopping some heads, prior.

At least they got out some firm numbers on masks. The same is needed for testing capability.

[greeneyes]

My doctor writes mine for 90 day supply and I get the resupply as early as the insurance will let me.

In addition, my Dr. has in the past written me a script for 2 months extra, which I fill and pay cash at a different pharmacy. I just explained it and asked and he did it.

[abigkahuna]

^

[PA Engineer]

There is an interesting perspective on a video (20 minutes) by Canadian Prepper and worth watching I think.

WARNING: Market Crashing/ Pandemic Imminent

I watched it a couple of days ago and it seemed to align with my perspective. The CDC still screwed up royally. ;-)

[LilFarmer]

SNOHOMISH CASE - gene sequencing

The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here.

This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington.

This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks.

It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China.

I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County.

I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.

We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak.

We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data.

Thank you to the @seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome.

An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/trvrb

[21twelve]

Thanks. I live in this area. I have been treating it like it was “here” for the last four to five weeks. Well - to a certain degree such as using hand sanitizer and Chlorox wipes after getting into the car each time.

Time to bring it up another level. Grocery shopping at night, etc.

[Myrddin]

Thanks. Taking notes before seeking the resources.

[greeneyes]

So is he saying the virus has already mutated? Or just that some of those who flew out from China before the travel ban had already infected some people in the at large community?

[justa-hairyape]

At 6 weeks they could have over 1,000 infected, in a worse case SK scenario.

[justa-hairyape]

He is saying this unknown infected person had the same virus as the first infected person in the US. That means community transmission possible for 6 weeks.

[LilFarmer]

He says it means that this case was directly infected by the Snohomish case 6 weeks ago, and also means it has been silently spreading for 6 weeks. He estimates a few hundred cases.

[justa-hairyape]

Just had a live call by an obvious EMT technician to the Blazing Press. He made an interesting point. He said they cannot get fully prepped for this disease because it is not a declared Pandemic. If it were an official pandemic situation, the ALS Paramedic could fully suit up. Otherwise it’s just N95, googles and gloves. He also said stop calling in for mild chest inflamation lol.

[LilFarmer]

Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
Replying to
@trvrb

@seattleflustudy
and 3 others
One more update: my best guess at a p-value here is 0.03 as above based on shared mutations (still possible this pattern was chance). If we get another sequence or two from additional WA community cases this should clinch the matter one way or another.
1:18 AM · Mar 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

[The Westerner]

Hi Farmer, just read this on twitter. He’s a 1st rate scientific mind. Recommend this thread to everyone. The scientists who comment also add more info.

[greeneyes]

We’re all going to die! This is Trump’s Katrina!
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So what. We all started dying the day we were born and we are all going to die someday-no one gets out of this world alive.
It’s no big deal. Quit the hysterics.