Posted on 02/26/2020 9:16:48 AM PST by C19fan
The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351. Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe" the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.
(Excerpt) Read more at virus.stanford.edu ...
Sometimes I make the mistake of thinking I know what a movie is about, when I really don't.
“Im saying the principle concern is those lives. The economy ought to do just fine, judging by history, in spite of the market meltdown.”
Agreed on both points. A good time to buy into the market should be coming up pretty soon, but that’s secondary.
Recheck you numbers regarding the number of hospitalized for flu.
And most of that 79k+ are not hospitalized. They are confirmed cases including those with mild or no symptoms.
So your numbers are a mismatch.
Consider also that most of those 79k+ are in one city where the medical system has been overwhelmed.
Consider. also, that the Chinese are lying about the number of dead and infected. They probably have no idea and won’t until it’s all over and they can gather all the records. But it is worse in that particular city than they are letting on.
For real numbers, watch Italy, Korea and Japan where there is community transmission in certain regions, quarantine efforts and some transparency. Those numbers should be more informative. It’s still pretty early, though.
Don’t accept Iran’s numbers, they are just as much BS as China’s.
“Thats bullharkie. The 14th Century Black Death took about half of the worlds population, and the 1918 Infulenza killed tens of thousands and took a lot fewer than did the plague”
Please source your stats. Because they appear to be wildly inaccurate.
“When more cases came on board, the rate steadily improved.”
It simply takes longer to get better, on average, so as time passes the dead stay dead but more of the living recover. Eventually, when there are enough cases the instantaneous CFR will approach the actual CFR and new cases will have statistically predictable outcomes.
Not true. Here in the US the Spanish flu was 11%-16% mortality. Some reports say 10%-20%.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article
“Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4).”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
So you’re saying the official CDC stats on the spanish flu are wrong?
Really?
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So you’re saying the coronavirus is like the Spanish flu? Really? I don’t think the CDC is saying that. Although I do seem to remember them panicking over Ebola. How does the CDC think we get from zero to 265,000 deaths from a flu that appears to be weaker than our regular seasonal flu as far as symptoms.
I’ll be shocked if anybody dies of this. OK I’ll be shocked if 10 people in the US die of this flu. This is west Nile, Zeka virus 2.0
No.
You said the Spanish Flu mortality was 20%.
It wasn’t
CDC stats have Spanish Flu mortality as 2.5%
CIDRAP, as highly esteemed as the CDC has this to say about this coronavirus:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
2.3% for this bug. Roughly the same as the Spanish Flu in this country.
We can hope and pray we don’t have that level of mortality, here, from this.
But it is NOT the common cold. Japan isn’t closing industries and schools over the common cold. Neither is SK.
Passenger pigeons were extinct by 1914. Not sure where you are getting this.
I’m talking percentage of infected not percentage of the population. Even Wickipedia reports up to a 50% infection rate and 20% mortality rate of infected for the Spanish flu. You are not going to get an epidemic from 2.5%. Thats not happening.
The infection rate for corona virus is currently estimated at 2.0%-2.5% but chances are since a great deal of people only experience very mild symptoms you are not getting an accurate count at this time because so many people are not being identified. When this all shakes out the coronavirus will fall into the same category as the regular seasonal flu virus. No epidemic is forthcoming.
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