Posted on 02/25/2020 10:49:58 AM PST by DouglasKC
I love Rush but he has stated several time today that the death rate of Corona virus is LESS than the death rate of influenza. This is just flat out wrong.
From the CDC website
Mortality rate of influenza: Deaths per 100,000 population: 2.
So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it. What is the mortality rate percentage?:
2 (the number of deaths) divided by 100,000 = .00002, or .002%.
The estimated mortality rate of corona (which he is basing on the number out of China = 2-3%.
Death rate of flu= .002%
Death rate of Corona = 2%
The death rate of corona is a THOUSAND times greater than the flu...and that's assuming that we used Chinese numbers. Using IRAN number the death rate is 15%...
Rush MIGHT be referring to the fact that the flu can kill up to 80,000 americans in a year. But that's only because there's a LOT more people infected with various flu viruses. When as many people are infected by the corona virus then there would be an accurate comparison.
Clearly restate the “bet” and I will be able to answer. Your comment, otherwise, is too vague for me to even guess which side of the debate you are currently on.
“During the 1918 Swine Flu epidemic, it was found that undernourished people died or died faster than the people who could afford meat. So your comment about nutrition, I think, will prove true in the US. If the Chinese are eating dog and reptiles, it would seem to me that healthy beef is not readily available lowering their protein build up in their bodies. These viruses like to devour protein.”
My argument with the original comment was that the doctors and other notables were less likely to be undernourished or receive inadequate health care. Or be lax in their precautions (at least once they knew what they were facing). But some 1700 health care workers have been infected and many have died including some of said notables.
I totally buy the smoking and pollution arguments as there are actual studies supporting the ACE2 connection (as opposed to the racial factor which may exist but has not been substantiated sufficiently).
I think the eating of dogs, bats, snakes, pangolin, what ever, are more a cultural affliction than due to starvation, but I will respect the opinion of someone more informed on that one.
And I realize you meant Spanish Flu.
Incidentally, if viruses “devour protein” does a high protein diet (combo Keto & Atkins, sort of) make you more durable or more appetizing? I wonder.
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I think the protein just kept vital organs from failing so the protein just helped sustain.
I don't think I've read anywhere on here that anyone thinks the virus itself is going to wipe us out. Instead there's a call to be ready...i.e. ready to shelter in place or be quarantined IF it comes here. That means having a month or two or three of food and other goods just in case.
Most reasonable people would look at what they did in China, South Korea and now Iran and Italy as far as quarantines go and would reasonably think that the same thing would likely happen in America IF it cropped up here.
I issued a challenge a month or so ago that if the Case Fatality Rate in America was higher than 3.5% by the end of June, then I'd donate $10 extra bucks to FR. If I am right, the loser ponies up.
So far I have only two takers.
Whoa, there. Narcissistic to believe all the reports out of China that the CCP unsurprisingly is understating the carnage by an order of magnitude?
Have you not been paying attention to China’s behavior over the last 70 years? They lie (and cheat) about everything.
OMG, Rush Limbaugh is not an epidemiologist! Nothing he says can ever be trusted again!
/S
End of June, eh?
I won’t take the bet. There is no way to calculate the CFR until enough cases have resolved. Most people won’t even have caught it by June. The “instantaneous” CFR could go any which way and is really just noise right now.
I expect that the virus will become rampant across the world. If we can isolate and contain it long enough we can produce a vaccine. But in the end, it will be everywhere. Containing it as best we can buys time. It takes stress off of our medical infrastructure, allows us to focus more resources on treatment, cure and ultimately prevention.
Long term, in the US, I think we end up around 1-2% CFR until we get countermeasures. Unless all those virus-jihadists make it across the border. I guess we’ll see.
I pity most of the rest of the world, though.
Don’t panic. Prepare and be vigilant.
I can’t read all these posts, but I am guessing that it has been made clear to you by now that deaths per population count and deaths per those infected are completely different.
So far it looks like the coronavirus is about 10x as deadly as the flu on a per-patient basis, but it is to be seen if its particularly vexatious traits for contagion will get it up to and beyond the flu’s number infected.
Stats are easily manipulated by deep staters.
But, we can always perform long division, and that's the wager: the long division based on available data at the end of June would yield a CFRHAT (i.e., estimated CFR) of 3.5% or less.
Don’t panic. Prepare and be vigilant.
Agreed...we all have car insurance (yes, we're forced so by the state but work with me) even though we are all awesome drivers. Do I think America will be see more than 10,000 confirmed cases? No. Do I think we'll see shelves get a little bare at the store? Periodically, yes.
Ha Rush needs to apologize for his blather the last two days. The death rate is ONLY .1 % of deaths from flu...he just played it. But he was claiming the death rate for the flu is higher than corona.
I heard Rush yesterday talking about Corona Virus and almost pushing into conspiracy stuff about economic woes that would hurt the economy to affect Trump re-election.
In fact, he said, “It’s a form of the common cold, or the flu...”. Whoa. I had to take a minute to check myself and see if I’d fallen victim to the hype. Rush is usually right, usually. On this? Uhhhhm...oh, ahh yikes?
Media is certainly “over hyping” the hysterics. That should be expected and recognized. So it CAN’T be as bad or dangerous as they are making it out to be. BUT, China is certainly under reporting and downplaying the issue, so it’s worse than the numbers show. The raw numbers out there suggest it is worse than the flu in underdeveloped nations and not as bad as the flu in the USA (depending on what statistics you pick). It’s said that the virus won’t survive in the warmer air and the problem will solve itself, except maybe move to the southern hemisphere....
I’ve done some reading and have come to my own conclusion that it’s worse than what Rush says, not as bad as the media is hyping (pandemic like 1918), worse than China is saying, but is not quite a bio-weapon intended to kill. I think it is worse than bird and swine flu but not as bad as SARS. I think the world is being more aggressive in stopping the spread far better than they did with SARS. I also believe they will have an inoculation by next fall.
Regardless of the severity of the actual virus, I do believe there will be some economic fall out. I can speak first hand about manufacturing slow down due to a lack of parts coming out of China. I hope it is not that severe and I hope it does not turn the tables on the elections in November. In the long run, if it cripples the Chinese economy to help re-set the global trade equation, along with the new trade deal, it might prove beneficial for the USA economy (assuming my assumptions are close), empirically speaking.
I pray that it is more like Rush is preaching, but am not so confident as I am with other analysis he does.
Agree and unfortunately Trump took too much of his talking points from Rush, minimizing rather than saying here is what we are doing
Hypocritical Pelosi and Schumer are playing politics with the Corona Virus and people are already panicking. Just try to find a common N95 mask. Amazon, Walmart, CVS, Target are all sold out. I was in an Ace Hardware store getting some weed killer and the guy said they just had a rush-a rush on masks, he got 200 boxes in and sold out in an half an hour won’t have more for weeks.
Pence needs to speak daily on Corona virus AND speak about the collaboration the administration is doing with Bio Tech firms to find anti-bodies (best approach IMHO ) with Regeneron,symbol Regn, this is the company that shut down ebola. If the market holds above 25,000 the recovery in markets typically takes about 4-5 months but Dems will try and make this worse by showing how Trump is minimizing it. He took too much of the Rush Limbaugh approach (hey regular flu kills too) and it did the opposite of what it intended as evidenced by market sell off and people panicking more.
Trump or Pence should speak more to specifics as to what he is doing (and they are) including banning flights, the big one is how HHS IS working with Regeneron, Regn on antibodies, with Vaxart Inc. (NASDAQ: VXRT on vaccine, new Sepsis Dr. Marik protocol to shut this virus down which unlike regular flu can mutate and has a much much higher death rate. If he wants bonus points he can talk about how these advances will help reduce regular flu deaths as opposed to being surprised to how how many die from flu. Gawd the deaths from flu will be bad enough but a President Sanders will be bad
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