[calenel]

End of June, eh?

I won’t take the bet. There is no way to calculate the CFR until enough cases have resolved. Most people won’t even have caught it by June. The “instantaneous” CFR could go any which way and is really just noise right now.

I expect that the virus will become rampant across the world. If we can isolate and contain it long enough we can produce a vaccine. But in the end, it will be everywhere. Containing it as best we can buys time. It takes stress off of our medical infrastructure, allows us to focus more resources on treatment, cure and ultimately prevention.

Long term, in the US, I think we end up around 1-2% CFR until we get countermeasures. Unless all those virus-jihadists make it across the border. I guess we’ll see.

I pity most of the rest of the world, though.

Don’t panic. Prepare and be vigilant.

[DoodleBob]

To be clear, you CAN calculate the CFR at the end of June; the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases of coronavirus in the USA. Yes, you won't have a proper cohort analysis, and to the extent it takes longer than 2 weeks for the disease to crystalize and recover fully you won't have homogeneity in the numerator and denominator.

But, we can always perform long division, and that's the wager: the long division based on available data at the end of June would yield a CFRHAT (i.e., estimated CFR) of 3.5% or less.

Don’t panic. Prepare and be vigilant.

Agreed...we all have car insurance (yes, we're forced so by the state but work with me) even though we are all awesome drivers. Do I think America will be see more than 10,000 confirmed cases? No. Do I think we'll see shelves get a little bare at the store? Periodically, yes.