Posted on 02/25/2020 10:49:58 AM PST by DouglasKC
I love Rush but he has stated several time today that the death rate of Corona virus is LESS than the death rate of influenza. This is just flat out wrong.
From the CDC website
Mortality rate of influenza: Deaths per 100,000 population: 2.
So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it. What is the mortality rate percentage?:
2 (the number of deaths) divided by 100,000 = .00002, or .002%.
The estimated mortality rate of corona (which he is basing on the number out of China = 2-3%.
Death rate of flu= .002%
Death rate of Corona = 2%
The death rate of corona is a THOUSAND times greater than the flu...and that's assuming that we used Chinese numbers. Using IRAN number the death rate is 15%...
Rush MIGHT be referring to the fact that the flu can kill up to 80,000 americans in a year. But that's only because there's a LOT more people infected with various flu viruses. When as many people are infected by the corona virus then there would be an accurate comparison.
Try again.
You need to try again.
3 out of 691.
Japan and S. Korea are pretty modern including general cleanliness.
I’ve traveled to both for several weeks in each. Yes, they are...in the major cities. It will be interesting to see the stats that emerge.
“All that said, coronavirus is likely to be less lethal here (barring our medical system getting overloaded) because we have less smoking, less pollution, better nutrition and better medical care than China.”
This thing picked off many, many health workers in China. I wouldn’t overstate the better nutrition and health care aspects, although the rest is clearly valid.
“Still more than the flu, but less than the worldwide (mainly Chinese) experience so far.”
That looks likely.
Don’t fall for it. It’s like the ‘race card’. Played when other arguments fail.
“Well we’ll see what happened at the end of the year. Either we’re all dead or the virus died out on its own.”
It definitely is NOT going to kill everyone, not even remotely close, and it may well not die out by the end of the year.
“3 out of 691.”
Half a percent of the infected. How many of those cases are resolved and how many remain sick? Those numbers haven’t come out and the passengers are being sent off to various countries now. Some have even returned to the US and been quarantined here, where they will now be included in our statistics in some confusing and non-transparent way. But what we do know is that when people got really sick they were dragged off to the ICU in a country with first-world medicine and 3 of them died.
So, again, as long as you have sufficient medical facilities the CFR will be “low” but once they are saturated CFR becomes “high”.
Worst case scenario is it becomes endemic. It’s not gonna kill us all, unless the apocalyptics are right. It has too long an incubation period for us to expect it to just die off. We will have to kill it.
Oh, I see what you are doing now, and that is not the proper way to calculate a death rate.
For example: 10 out of 977 would be annualized at 0.028 per 1000. (The United States’s annualized death rate is 8 per 1000.)
Regardless, there is a simple way to test if you actually believe the fear mongering that you are peddling.
Let’s agree on a specific date. How about July 1, 2020? If this hasn’t boiled out of control by then, then would you agree never to post on the forum again? For the control, let’s use the Spanish Flu. Thesis: “If the Corona Virus is not as bad as the Spanish Flu, would you agree to leave?”
Are you willing to take that bet? I am willing to bet that none of those peddling the doom would take that bet. You won’t do it either. Why?
Because you don’t believe what you are selling.
Are you willing to take the bet?
What bet?
See above.
I use the simple method of estimating the CFR based on the reports of numbers of infected vs. numbers of deaths.
I know very well that a real CFR is only determined after the cases have resolved. So it is always a historical number.
At this point, there are many unknowns with this virus. For all I know, it could become less lethal and fade to an ordinary cold virus as it adapts to human hosts. The number of cases strongly suggests that it can maintain sustained human to human transmission, but other than that, it is hard to make any determinations about the behavior of this virus. And doing these analyses is no longer my line of work, so I’m not digging up a lot of information for the time being.
During the 1918 Swine Flu epidemic, it was found that undernourished people died or died faster than the people who could afford meat. So your comment about nutrition, I think, will prove true in the US. If the Chinese are eating dog and reptiles, it would seem to me that healthy beef is not readily available lowering their protein build up in their bodies. These viruses like to devour protein.
Will you take the bet?
Was just being sarcastic/satirical.
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