Posted on 02/25/2020 10:49:58 AM PST by DouglasKC
I love Rush but he has stated several time today that the death rate of Corona virus is LESS than the death rate of influenza. This is just flat out wrong.
From the CDC website
Mortality rate of influenza: Deaths per 100,000 population: 2.
So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it. What is the mortality rate percentage?:
2 (the number of deaths) divided by 100,000 = .00002, or .002%.
The estimated mortality rate of corona (which he is basing on the number out of China = 2-3%.
Death rate of flu= .002%
Death rate of Corona = 2%
The death rate of corona is a THOUSAND times greater than the flu...and that's assuming that we used Chinese numbers. Using IRAN number the death rate is 15%...
Rush MIGHT be referring to the fact that the flu can kill up to 80,000 americans in a year. But that's only because there's a LOT more people infected with various flu viruses. When as many people are infected by the corona virus then there would be an accurate comparison.
It’s variable, but the CFR for the 2018-2019 season was 0.096%, with a total of 34,157 deaths and 3.6 million cases.
The CFR of the covid-19 is comparable to that of the 1917-1919 influenza H1N1 pandemic. The actual number of deaths will end up being a result of many factors.
Better odds than walking around at night in Chicago....or Compton, or Detroit, Baltimore, and Houston.
BTW...do you give $$ to FR?
Do you give $$ to FR?
It was the .4% to 1% rate you presented for your numbers. Those are horrible numbers coming out of South Korea, Cruise ship and Japan.
Your underlying premise is correct.
I’m with you on this.
It’s going to turn out to be almost as devastating as Y2K.
Not for a long time...
That “certain period of time” has to be long enough for the vast majority of cases being counted to have resolved.
If you have a disease that takes you a month to get over or kills you on the first day then you would have to count only those that had been sick for at least a day. If you have a disease that lasts several months and can kill you at any time over those months, then you can count only those that have been sick for at least several months.
The Wuhan corona virus seems to be in the latter category, and many of the cases are still unresolved. The numbers you are citing are best case scenarios since they inherently include all the unresolved cases in the survivors group. We know that this is not realistic.
'Better odds than walking around at night in Chicago....or Compton, or Detroit, Baltimore, and Houston. '
Not sure. Houston is safe enough. Chicago seems to be a dangerous place for gay black actors.
-bkmrk-
>>>> and that’s assuming that we used Chinese numbers <<<<
Bad assumption.
The Diamond Princess.
To be more precise, it is A cruise ship quarantined in Japan due to an outbreak of the corona virus. It’s actually a British ship, I believe.
You are here a lot..........
Likely, as this virus is new and numbers vary greatly depending upon who is reporting them (pun not intended). I think anyone who makes a claim that there is nothing to worry about, does just as poor of a disservice as those who panic over it. Our knowledge of how bad this virus is going to be is pretty limited right now, thanks in large part to the Chinese government's secrecy about it.
It's wise to take prudent steps in preparing for the eventual spread of to your location, and for the political and economic side effects which may eventually be far worse.
Look at what has happened in those countries where it has established itself and plan accordingly. Lock-downs of the populace seem the order of the day - whether such is needed or not. This means one should have enough necessities on hand to survive without having to rely on Walmart for at least a month or two.
Two channels I follow on Youtube for the latest:
Dr. John Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg
Peak Prosperity
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
We're just as responsible for our in-actions as we are for our actions.
I'm not panicking yet. There's conflicting information and conspiracy theories going around.
All we can do is take common sense precaution. Wash your hands. Avoid crowds. If you know it's in your community start wearing a mask. Have minimal contract with strangers, foreigners, and people traveling to foreign countries, etc.
If it turns into a global pandemic we're all responsible for the health and safety of our families. All we can do is take precautions.
If it does get bad and the healthcare system is overwhelmed and collapses then we're really on our own.
Outside of China that hasn't happened yet but they were ground zero and caught off guard.
With respect, you are also (partially) wrong. The death rate for a “normal” flu is 0.1% to 0.2%. It is still on the order of 1/10 or 1/20 as lethal as the coronavirus (assuming a 2% mortality rate, and it is probably a bit higher overall), but your figures about the lethality of the flu are understated.
All that said, coronavirus is likely to be less lethal here (barring our medical system getting overloaded) because we have less smoking, less pollution, better nutrition and better medical care than China. Still more than the flu, but less than the worldwide (mainly Chinese) experience so far.
I don't know? Laziness? Maybe you'll shame me into it...
Or you do give to FR?
Yes others have pointed out that I misinterpreted cdc numbers. But the point was that Rush is grossly overestimating how deadly the flu is compared to what the Chinese have reported (likely WAY low) about corona.
Except you have absolutely zero idea what the death rate or CFR is for coronavirus. Until the denominator is known (ie how many people actually have it) the published CFR is meaningless. Why so many freepers are losing their collective minds over this is stunning!
Then I realized,,this is one of my go-to web sites...When I'm on line...I go here.
I try to give $20 a month or more...
If everyone here could give $5 a month....it would be a great thing...I believe.
It's just been a great place to be, and learn.
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