Posted on 02/17/2020 2:50:09 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Continuation of daily Thread
The ripple effect.
Travis is a refueling stop. Big base.
The Los Alamos researchers are still wrestling with their Covid-19 model, which is showing - incorrectly - the outbreak “exploding quite quickly in China,” Del Valle said. It is overestimating how many susceptible people become infected, probably because it’s not accurately accounting for social isolation and other countermeasures. Those seem to have reduced R0 toward the lower range of 2-to-5 that most modelers are using, she said.
What would happen to the RO if they
a) fed in legionnaire's data on transfer by airduct?
b) fed in data on transfer of infection on the cruise ship?
(seating chart - which cabins where)
given that a majority of residences in cities are high rises
lead CV?
Do you have a link to the Singapore data?
” ACE2 is actively expressed in remodelled AT2 cells of former smokers.”
Drawn from more than one article at the below link:
AT2
Differentiated AT2 cells produce pulmonary surfactant, a lipoprotein substance that is required for proper lung function P.10
The AT2 is the only pulmonary cell that synthesizes, stores, and secretes all components of pulmonary surfactant important to regulate surface tension, preventing atelectasis and maintaining alveolar fluid balance within the alveolus.4
Surface tension contributes about two-thirds of the recoil tendency of the lungs. Inspiration requires work to expand the lungs against this recoil tendency. Because surfactant lowers that recoil tendency, surfactant reduces the work of breathing. Persons with insufficient surfactant indeed have difficulty breathing (see Clinical Applications: Respiratory Distress Syndrome).
Excess surface tension thus leads to pulmonary edema, and the reduction of the surface tension by surfactant helps prevent edema.
Surfactant secretion is stimulated by hyperventilation and mechanical stretch, catecholamines, ATP, protein kinases A and C, cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP), phorbol esters, prostaglandins, and leukotrienes. Surfactant secretion is inhibited by SP-A and possibly by other surfactant lipids and proteins.
The effect of calfactant (a calf protein B and C–based surfactant) in ALI/ARDS is currently being studied (NCT00682500), whereas trials of Surfaxin (a synthetic protein B–based surfactant) (NCT00215553) and HL-10 (a pig protein B and C–based surfactant) (NCT00742482) have recently been terminated, and results are awaited. Pending new research, surfactant therapy is not recommended (Table 12-1).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/alveolar-type-ii-cells
More than 80 clinical trials launch to test coronavirus treatments
As HIV drugs, stem cells and traditional Chinese medicines vie for a chance to prove their worth, the World Health Organization attempts to bring order to the search.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00444-3
a new video lecture from Dr. Seheult (he mentions the above article):
Coronavirus Epidemic Update 19: Treatment and Medication Clinical Trials
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HK9QEy1KJ8
The crew continued to carry on with group activities and not aggressively pursue measures to limit exposure within their group per one discussion. No data on crew infections.
Excerpt from the Los Alamos article:
******************
The Los Alamos researchers are still wrestling with their Covid-19 model, which is showing - incorrectly - the outbreak “exploding quite quickly in China,” Del Valle said. It is overestimating how many susceptible people become infected, probably because it’s not accurately accounting for social isolation and other countermeasures. Those seem to have reduced R0 toward the lower range of 2-to-5 that most modelers are using, she said.
**************************************
I would trust Los Alamos’ model before I would trust the ChiCom’s official numbers. Scary stuff.
Another excerpt from the Los Alamos report:
“When people’s chances of becoming infected vary, an outbreak is more likely to be eventually contained (by tracing contacts and isolating cases); it might reach a cumulative 550,000 cases in Wuhan, Allard and his colleagues concluded. If everyone has the same chance, as with flu (absent vaccination), the probability of containment is significantly lower and could reach 4.4 million there.”
Lets hope they are using the population of Wuhan as 11 million, and not the reported 6 million still in the city. But half of the people infected perhaps?
I’m not sure I believe the targeting of the virus on Chinese people. But also hope that this 50% infection rate doesn’t apply to the entire world.
Suppose for argument the population of Wuhan was volunteered for an inoculation test of a vaccine for a Coronavirus. An unrelated strain of Coronavirus outbreak occurred and has spread through various populations without dire consequences for the most part.
Those that were part of the population which received the vaccine are suffering a much worse outcome when infected with the second Coronavirus in circulation. Their immune response is different due to a prior development of antibodies from the test inoculation. The challenge response of their immune system fortified with existing antibodies, prompted by exposure to the second Coronavirus could be a critical factor.
Those in China are mandated by law to be vaccinated on demand of their government.
https://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/china-vaccine-law-passed/
So they're relying on the CCP numbers. Morons.
Not sure the particular one you wrote about would work out the way you propose.
There is a hospital-associated infection caused by a bacterium called Serratia. It makes a distinctive red pigment on certain types of media.
Believing it to be harmless, in 1950 the US released lots of it off the coast of San Francisco in Operation Sea Spray, which demonstrated the ability to spread an infection over a wide geographic area from a standoff position.
One problem. It wasn't harmless.
Using "it's just a harmless virus" rationale, it is POSSIBLE that some type of airborne pathogen dissemination system was tested, with disastrous results.
The science about a "virus created in the lab" is in, and it strongly points to natural evolution.
But natural evolution really doesn't fit the epidemiology in China.
Just got back in - thanks!
Alex Koh
@hokxela
Timeline chart of Singapore COVID-19 Cases
Total 81, Recovered 29, ICU 4
Updated 18 Feb
Chart: https://flic.kr/p/2iuHvRB
Data: https://moh.gov.sg,
@ChannelNewsAsia
#covid19 #coronavirus #singapore
https://twitter.com/hokxela/status/1229745663514034176
especially when you have folks like this dingbat running around:
Russia - quarantine breakout - there was no shampoo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBpMXXcXdBg
Japan - 53 total, 23 seriously ill
New virus “23 severely ill” Kato
February 18, 2020 16:45
New type pneumoniaMinister of Health, Labor and Welfare Kato said at the lower house budget committee on the 18th that a person who was confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus said, ``At the time of yesterday, 23 people were determined to be seriously ill, 20 people and 3 people in Japan. “
kiwibird at flutrackers on the above data:
3 out of 53 local patients seriously ill - plus one death - roughly 8%
20 out of 454 Cruise ship patients seriously ill - nearly 5%
Here is a link to a patient’s story - 20 day timeline. She is one of the doctors
‘Severe’ worker shortage at U.S. factories in China
Feb. 17, 2020 6:02 AM ET|About: iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor
While about 90% of the 109 U.S. manufacturers in the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone expect to resume production this week, 78% of them don’t have enough staff to run at full speed due to travel restrictions and quarantine requirements.
According to the survey by AmCham, nearly 60% of the firms expect demand to be lower than normal over the next few months, about half said their global supply chain had already been affected by the business shutdown, while almost a third of them will consider moving operations out of the country if the situation continues.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3542453-severe-worker-shortage-u-s-factories-in-china?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=wall-street-breakfast-coronavirus-takes-bite-out-of-apple&utm_campaign=nl-wall-street-breakfast&utm_content=link-16
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