How previous respiratory disease outbreaks can be characterised in terms of clinical severity and human-to-human transmissibility
Posted on 02/17/2020 2:50:09 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Continuation of daily Thread
How previous respiratory disease outbreaks can be characterised in terms of clinical severity and human-to-human transmissibility
It’s rare that anything on Twitter doesn’t make it on youtube for a little while at least. Other people besides the original uploader must know how to do that feat.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138791600.htm
“China issues over 1,600 force majeure slips to coronavirus-hit companies “
https://twitter.com/shanghaidaily/status/1229613697913409536
China-approved vid shows empty Shanghai/Metro on Monday.
No workers...
“Explain your thinking if you don’t mind”
What we need to do to prevent community transmission after introduction of 10-100 cases into the US is unclear, because the epidemiology is very confusing. The extreme density of infections in Wuhan is not being reproduced elsewhere in China. We don’t understand this and we have to prevent a pandemic before we have full knowledge.
Even if everyone gets off the Diamond Princess tomorrow, there are 454 (and probably more) transmission events that have occurred under direct observation.
This will get us to an answer quicker than two months of fumbling around n Wuhan.
That’s why the Diamond Princess is important.
Thank you Jim.
Check this out.
Of the 442 non Diamond Princess (D.P.) illnesses that have been identified outside Mainland China, 128 have now been classified as recovered. That’s a 29.96% recovery rate.
30% of the non (D.P.) cases outside of Mainland China, have now been resolved, by fatality or recovery, and the ratio is 128 to 5 in the favor of recovery.
The data China has provided to date, shows 0.12% short of 20% recovered. That is growing daily. Within the next 24 to 48 hours, the numbers of declared active cases will start declining.
I would laugh at that, but the percentage recovered outside Mainland China is even higher, as depicted above.
I noticed the growing numbers of recovered people from Mainland China, and wondered if that would show up in the outside body of sick people.
It more than did.
Folks, there is a good chance that by mid-March, baring anything more catastrophic popping up out of the blue, this illness may be almost gone, except for a hot spot or two.
seems today if you blink, the numbers go up:
world-o-meter:
73,335 confirmed
1,874 deceased
11,795 - serious
46,837 - mild
12,799 - discharged
China: new cases: 1890 new deaths: 199
29 countries; R0 - 2-3
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
community spread from Jan 29 - not good
what are the days? is that sickness time or time to symptoms?
The higher density of cases in Wuhan are probably due to its spreading undetected in a flu season. Everyone else has been prepared for it somewhat and that has halted the Wuhan devastation from spreading. That it s not to say Wuhan cannot occur elsewhere. We really have a poor class of front line workers right now. One mistake. One slip up and you have another 3 sleeper shedders. Africa should do well due to its Ebola experience. But India, South America and Central America are different stories.
*PING*;
Thanks LilFarmer.
BTW Farmer, any comments on Little Mikey saying Farmers don’t have the brains for IT?
If any of those welded into their apartments survive, I think this September will see a population surge in China.
Wuhan did take the brunt of it. Your suggestion is as reasoned as any I suppose.
I’m not too worried about the counts outside Mainland China.
It’s just not spreading rapidly. There were 14 new cases outside China today, not counting the Diamond Princess cases.
That’s down from the low 20s yesterday.
The illness has new entered it’s two week phase, here a lot of people are getting well. The numbers of active cases is poised to start dropping, and outside of China they’ll fall the fastest.
As they number of cases dwindle, the numbers of new cases will also.
I’m encouraged by what I’m seeing.
I wouldn’t even know where to begin.
Mine is small scale (dairy), but it takes project management, people management, financial acumen, administrative skills, animal husbandry, veterinary skill, agriculture, food safety practices, and infection control. Oh and yes, some farmers even know some IT, because everything has gone hi-tech. This isn’t “Green Acres”.
I guess I had a few thoughts after all, lol.
I think it’s exposure to confirmed...
I’m not LilFarmer, but I’ll chime in anyway. I used to be in tech support. Heck, I used to train the people who did tech support.
I prefer farming.
If he wants to compare IQ scores or STEM skills, I’m game.
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
BREAKING: Liu Zhiming, the head of Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan, has died of coronavirus - CCTV
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229620725197262848
.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.