Excerpt from the Los Alamos article:
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The Los Alamos researchers are still wrestling with their Covid-19 model, which is showing - incorrectly - the outbreak “exploding quite quickly in China,” Del Valle said. It is overestimating how many susceptible people become infected, probably because it’s not accurately accounting for social isolation and other countermeasures. Those seem to have reduced R0 toward the lower range of 2-to-5 that most modelers are using, she said.
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I would trust Los Alamos’ model before I would trust the ChiCom’s official numbers. Scary stuff.
Another excerpt from the Los Alamos report:
“When people’s chances of becoming infected vary, an outbreak is more likely to be eventually contained (by tracing contacts and isolating cases); it might reach a cumulative 550,000 cases in Wuhan, Allard and his colleagues concluded. If everyone has the same chance, as with flu (absent vaccination), the probability of containment is significantly lower and could reach 4.4 million there.”
Lets hope they are using the population of Wuhan as 11 million, and not the reported 6 million still in the city. But half of the people infected perhaps?
I’m not sure I believe the targeting of the virus on Chinese people. But also hope that this 50% infection rate doesn’t apply to the entire world.
So many countries are working with the virus. Just wait for some moron to walk out with it and hop on a plane.
I think locking everyone in their homes has had an obvious impact on the reported cases.
I hope it’s burned out. Time will tell.