Posted on 02/15/2020 3:55:21 PM PST by Vermont Lt
There are currently 69,036 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,666 fatalities.
I guess it would not surprise me.
Sheesh.
Yeah. Not good stuff at all.
BTW, just to clarify, by “dead” I meant non-functional, not Star Trek red-shirt guy “dead”. One lung is nearly 100% scar tissue.
You will need to have an Excel file reader on your computer.
You may also be able to right click and save my file to your
computer and then read it online if you can find a place
that allows you to read your files online.
There's at least one place like that out there.
There are free Micorsoft Office like programs out there.
You should be able to find one if you look around.
Gosh scary do you have a source on that?
Oh, yeah, far NW Arkansas, “the vast expanse of nothingness” as my wife’s Filipina friend who lives in Jonesboro put it when she 1st traveled through that seemingly unending flat terrain.
I don’t see much “sticky” rice or Jasmine rice from the central US yet though. I’ve learned to prefer it. Some is grown / produced in CA, I think?
Most interesting. I’ve always thought I was “lucky” regarding the flu(s), not so much other respiratory viruses that go down into my lungs.
Thanks!
They are hyping how bad the masks are, so that the supply can get to the doctors in China who really need them now. There is a world-wide shortage of masks.
From a 2009 old WHO document with regards to tuberculosus outbreak and mask use.
Excerpt:
Length of usage depends on many factors. Moderator Paul Jensen, PhD, PE, CIH, of the CDC, says: “I generally use two N95 or FFP2 respirators (with exhaust valves) per week. I use one in the morning and another one in the afternoon. I wrap each one in a paper towel and allow them to dry over night. Occasionally, the cheap, blue rubber bands will break in less than one week.
“As a general rule, a respirator may be used every day for one week, provided that it has not been damaged or soiled. If used less often it may last longer.”
From other research I have found:
The N95 mask, if worn properly (one study of 800 people showed only 20% were worn properly) will filter out 95% of particles over 0.3 microns in size. In a cough, 96% of the virus particles are greater than 0.5 microns in size, so the mask will get most of them.
The smaller than 0.3 micron particles however can build up in the air as they can stay suspended, and float long distances. But they have a hard time determing how long those suspended particles stay viable. Primarily the sampling techniques. The samples show that most of them aren’t viable - but it might be how they are sampled (and that destroys the virus).
They catch them on paper filters. But paper (and clothing, tissues, etc.) dry out the virus after only about 10 to 15 minutes, and they aren’t viable.
Studies done with a flu virus.
The above WHO document talks about gross contamination, etc. Even a mask that appears clean may be covered with the virus. So you need to treat it as contaminated. I bought a UV light do destroy the virus on objects such as my phone, masks, clothing, etc.
I would think that after a few hours the fibers in the mask would also dry out the virus and destroy it.
Thanks. I’m printing your instructions to try to fiddle with tomorrow. I’m really a techno challenged person. Like I said, I only mentioned it in case others were just seeing gibberish like I was.
I know that some of the folks here, perhaps most of you don't like this
file, because you are certain China is not being forthcoming with information
and I agree with that.
I am providing a link to my file, because there are a few folks who do
like to look at the numbers, as I do.
You see, if this thing broke out in the U. S. like it did in China, we wouldn't
get a full picture of what was going on either. Hospitals would be full.
People would be contracting the disease at home and dying there. So I am
doing a work-up with the information provided.
Anyone can look at the file linked at the bottom of this post.
Since a few folks don't have a spreadsheet reader on their computer, I'll provide some numbers here.
JHU Coronavirus stats as of 02/15/2020 23:15
Cases: 69,256
Fatalities: 1,669
Recovered: 9,641
Active cases: 57,946
Mortality Rt: 14.76% currently - figure drops by about 1% per day currently / started on the 27th at 62.94%.
I use this formula: mortality rate=fatalities/fatalities+recoveries
Currently Mainland China accounts for 98.91% of the cases
Currently there are 756 cases outside of mainland China, or 1.09% of the total cases.
Of those 756 cases, 355 of them have come from the Cruise Ship. That 47% of the non-Mainland China cases.
The non-Mainland China cases grew by 161 today alone. That's a 27.06% growth rate per day.
Cruise ship cases made up 137 of those 161 new cases outside China today. Only 24 new cases popped up, other than the Cruise Ship globally.
Because the Cruise Ship is impacting these numbers so radically, I have studied what the numbers look like without them.
Without the Cruise Ship numbers, there are 401 cases outside of Mainland China. Today the non-Cruise Ship numbers grew by on 24 cases or 6.37%.
Of the current 1,669 deaths globally, 1596 were from one province in China, Hubei. Wohan is located in that province.
This leaves only 73 deaths globally, outside of Hubei province in China.
Since only four deaths have taken place outside of China, this leaves only 69 deaths outside Hubei province in all the rest of China.
It may be of interest to some of you, that there are only 15 known cases in the Southern Hemisphere. They are in Australia.*
* It should be stated that some nations on the equator may have a case or two technically in the Southern Hemisphere. I can't verify that.
16.331% of all 69,256 cases have now been resolved, by death or recovery.
This leaves 57,946 active cases, as documented above, and the recovery to fatalities ratio is now 9.641/1.66.
1301 people recovered from COVID-19 today.
101 people succumbed to COVID-19 today.
You are welcome to access my work on the spreadsheet if you like. LINK
Interesting information. Thanks for posting it.
You’re welcome.
Lots of elderly on the cruise ship. Americans begging the US to evacuate them. Gradually more and more diagnosed while pickling in that offshore petrie dish.
Trump has overall likely done more sooner than another president would have done, but clearly the good times and prosperity of his presidency is at risk here with reelection upcoming.
If you don’t see that, you’re not paying attention.
I’m no troll. Idiot.
marker
Thanks for that study. It was a bit over my head, but the conclusions at the end helped to summarize things. I was sort of skimming - but at first they spoke of viruses in the water. But I imagine these results can be applied to some degree to decontamination of objects, room, air, etc.
Ozone appeared to be best, then free chlorine (bleach??), then UV light.
Here’s some numbers we have:
20% of confirmed to ICU. ICU mortality rate 17% (if you’re in Wuhan) (Lancet study, Wuhan, 1066 patients)
current confirmed: 57943 confirmed + 11327 recovered = 69270 total x 20% x 17% = 2356 expected deaths
1669 already dead + 2356 if these were the final numbers = 4,024 (17.2% mortality) or about 90 remains/day x 45 days
90x1.5hrs = 135 hours across multiple crematoriums, say 20, = 7 hrs extra workload to cremate 5 remains a day at 1.5 hrs per cremation. But it appears they are running 24/hr shifts with 100 employees and up to 14 cremators, at least at one crematorium if we’re to believe the smuggled videos and talking heads. But even if there’s just 7 hours per crematorium per day extra, that doesn’t seem high enough for China to shut the entire country down.
So either they’re wargaming and stripping medical supplies from other countries while they imprison their own population, or something serious is up. If they’d let the CDC in we’d know. But they won’t.
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