Coronavirus Live Thread. 2/15-2/16

2/15/2020

[Vermont Lt]

There are currently 69,036 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,666 fatalities.

[mrsmith]

Westerdam ‘positive’ still being tested.
(May be false positive?)
https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/02/565955/alarm-cambodia-cruise-ship-ex-passenger-tests-positive-covid-19-malaysia

[TermLimits4All]

I van only pray that our government stooges and the american people blinded by their greed will see it for what it truly is.
Also hopeful we don’t see a huge number of infected/dead here in our country. Next few weeks will be truth telling I guess.

[freeandfreezing]

Recovery numbers are very low since the illness seems to take a long time to resolve. It will take a while until the recovery numbers are easily analyzed.

For the 1099 patients in the study, 15 died, 9 recovered, 55 were discharged from the hospital, and 1029 remained in the hospital. So at this point the recovery rate data isn't very useful. Over a longer time span it will be more useful as a greater percentage of patients pass though the average time to resolution of the illness.

You can see that data in the paper below which reports on a patient population of about 1000 people in China.

Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China

Published (before peer review) at medRxiv Here

There is a lot of other useful clinical data included in the paper.

[Vermont Lt]

We had 12 ICU, and 36 intermediate rooms. The hospital down the street has about 60 IcU beds, plus special cardiac and trauma units.That serves about 400k people.

The issue is they almost always full. And it is difficult to “plan” ICU beds outside of post surgery.

[BobL]

“How many people who knew how this or that worked are dead now? Or simply so very ill they can’t really work for months...Restarting will be dodgy due to that alone.”

Exactly. The next thing people here will learn involves restart of production lines. It’s real easy to restart lines, if the shutdown is expected and arrangements are in place for the shutdown. But no one plans for this type of shutdown, where you don’t know who’s returning, under what conditions, and whether or if your feeder lines will be in place.

[calenel]

It wouldn’t be 2%, it would be closer to 20% once their medical system is saturated.

[Vermont Lt]

Thanks.

[Karl Spooner]

I heard one blurb of news the other day that 1 Chinese worker came down with the virus in some factory that had just reopened and they ended up guaranteeing the remaining workers. Something like 270 people I think.

[Vermont Lt]

There is a story I read the other day that a factory went back to work. By lunchtime there were 200 people in quarantine AT THE FACTORY. I guess they get an A for effort.

[Paul R.]

TWO days data. The “most recent day’s data” always goes up later. How much and when seems to vary, so I’ve learned to discount that data until well into the same “day”, here in the US.

That said, on the one hand I am hopeful - the steady growth in cases (if one curve-smooths the jump on the 13th and assumes some of that jump actually occurred earlier) in the face of the Chinese containment effort seems unsustainable.

OTOH, I’ve thought that 3 times now and “got fooled”.

And that all assumes the Chinese #’s can be trusted, which even our CDC seems to doubt.

[janetjanet998]

Westerdam ‘positive’ still being tested.
(May be false positive?)
—

havent heard of any false positives yet or if that is even possible....just false negatives

and even positives , then negative, then positive again per CDC

[redlegplanner]

ding ding ding - winnah winnah chicken dinnah

Its called cascading failure. Absenteeism for this will be 30-50%.

So, a quick arithmetic question:

If half the farm laborers, half the flour workers, half the bakers, half the truck drivers, and half the supermarket workers are all sick/caring for the sick/caring for kids due to shut down schools / scared to come to work near simultaneously, how much bead is for sale?

Any math majors in the house?

[RinaseaofDs]

If you are disinfecting your bank notes, this ain’t the run of the mill flu.

[datura]

Welcome to life in the sticks. Hank Jr was right.

[redlegplanner]

it takes ~ 3 weeks for a container ship to cross from PRC to the west coast. What’s offloading tonight sailed three weeks ago. PRC started closing ports ~2 weeks ago.

Ok class - how many DOS do we have in the pipeline? That plus what’s “stockpiled” in a JIT economy is how long until the supply chain seizes like an engine w/o oil.

[DEPcom]

“Welcome to life in the sticks. Hank Jr was right.”

Live in the country here. The deer, rabbit, and wild pig population is large. Also have a river 40 feet from the house with fish.

A Country Boy Can Survive...

[Karl Spooner]

One ICU for every 4,000 people and they are usually full as it is. Looks like people should stop worrying whether they will have to go to an ICU unit or not, there won’t be any available!

Thanks.

[Paul R.]

Yeah, my then a bit under 60 brother landed in the ICU from “flu”, ended up with about 1/3 of his lungs (most of one actually, the other is effectively dead) functioning well, after rehab.

[abigkahuna]

marker

[nuconvert]

69,269 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,669 fatalities.

Hubei province
(includes Wuhan) 56,249 cases ... 1,596 Deaths

768 cases outside China, 4 Deaths ( 1 Hong Kong, 1 Philippines, 1 Japan, 1 France)