Posted on 02/15/2020 3:55:21 PM PST by Vermont Lt
There are currently 69,036 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,666 fatalities.
Correct.
Just watching a tough flu season first hand in an ER and 300 bed hospital was eye opening. We never had long wait times to get a room. They were waiting in the ER for 36 hours. Which means there were not beds for other folks. We were doubling up, parking folks, and doing triage as people walked.
In declared emergency we had rooms in a closed part of the hospital, but there are no beds. ( Hospitals do not have a stock of beds more than three days of known intake-surgeries, etc.). Most people have no idea how few “extra” stuff the hospital has on hand.
And inventory—30 days normal seasonal stock. As we emerge from the flu season in the next six weeks the inventory is drawn down. Unless there is an emergency the staff cannot just order more. But let’s say the regional manager says you can...where are you going to get it from? It’s mostly made in China. Those ships are not sailing. And the folks who make this stuff in country—the materials: paper, gauze, elastic...all from China.
3M just laid off 1200. You think they are calling them back? Not yet.
Hospitals are just factories for people. Most people have been dealing with Six Sigma for a decade or more. Believe it or not, the quality management fad is just getting in place in Hospitals. Most of them are a moral mess, a process mess, and a flow mess.
Doctors learning holistic medicine? The doctors are going to take a look at this, roll their sleeves up and do what they can. Most nurses too. But anyone who thinks transport and cleaning staff is going to stick around are delusional. If your workplace was 20% fatal, would your janitors and switchboard Operators show up?
The flu seldom requires supplemental oxygen for survival.
90-100% of Coronovirus patients require either ventilators or oxygen tanks. Once infected, even if you recover, your other organs are heavily damaged, yet you build no immunity to the disease due to its ability to mutate.
Everyone wants simple statistics to show that their POV is correct, yet this virus denies that simplicity.
Over 20% mortality in Hubei/Wuhan, about 2% outside Hubei. About 20ish percent of cases seem to require intensive care, and in places like Hubei, where medical facilities are overwhelmed, that 20% will die.
Probably, the body of a reinfected person is too weak to handle it again.
“Think Samsung and LG pulled all or most of manufacturing out of Communist China to the rest of Asia.”
I strongly suspect (but only suspect), that they’ll have the same problems as Hyundai, which has caused them to shut down production in South Korea - lack of parts that should be coming from China. And, of course, it goes further than that...even if Samsung makes their own circuit boards, where do the resistors come from, or the solder? China is just SO HUGE that I have trouble imagining virtually any complex item not having some Chinese content, somewhere down the supply line.
Thank you for hosting this daily, but more importantly thank you for serving the public in the most important way in your profession.
God bless you.
“By our calculations 760 million are living under some kind of residential lockdown.”
Roughly half of their population (and twice ours), and I suspect that covers virtually ALL of their manufacturing...with the remaining people in the less densely populated areas, concentrating on agriculture.
Rosie the Riveter is already in the workforce so who’s going to step in to replace her?
“Rosie the Riveter is already in the workforce so who’s going to step in to replace her?”
Took me a second. That’s right, she got ‘liberated’ after the war. But to answer your question, if we do start isolating (and we already are, ask any owner of an Asian restaurant), people will get freed up for other work. Just like WW2, tremendous dislocations is on the horizon.
Outstanding! Thanks Janet (or Janet?).
I imagine the elderly and children are more likely to die.
Not could for world economy. Is there any chance the dems have gotten so low as to.........
No problem. We’ll turn off all the air conditioning in America!
From your link....
...The longer it takes for a diagnosis, the greater the risk that patients infect those around them. But confirming cases can be tough — especially for younger, healthier patients with only mild symptoms, much less people with no symptoms at all. Five of the roughly 760 passengers on chartered flights from Wuhan tested positive despite not having any symptoms, meaning they would have been impossible to catch through regular channels.
Treatment capacity is an issue as well. Fourteen of Japan’s 47 prefectures miss their own benchmarks for the number of beds in isolation wards. Overall, there are 1,871 beds across Japan’s isolation chambers — 36 fewer than the goal. The health ministry on Sunday said coronavirus patients can stay in nonisolated facilities if no beds are available.
“If the virus spreads to the wider public, we won’t be able to keep track of patients and may have to place them in shared rooms with noncoronavirus patients,” said professor Hitoshi Oshitani of the Tohoku University School of Medicine.....
My thoughts on imports from China:
The Chinese economy up and running is more important to the CCP than the health of its population. China will get the factories producing again. May take a couple more weeks but they will come online.
China will tell the workers to wear masks and produce. The workers who get infected will be replaced with a new body. China has a huge population. If 2% die from COVID -19, the other 98% will continue on.
Why am I sure about this? Because the CCP has no other choice. Are they going to voluntarily let their economy crash??? Power is more important to them than lives.
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PING
I am retired. I only serve on a volunteer basis now. But working in a hospital and working with local emergency management professionals has allowed me on the “other side of the rope” and I am amazed at what plans are out there.
Most places are exceptional about keeping them trained. Other places are a nightmare. Mostly what I learned is that you are often better off on your own or with similar minded folks. The general population tend to not worry about much more than the Latest NFL score.
Thanks for that graphic. My daughter & son-in-law live in Singapore.
So far she says she’s safe, their workplace is being very careful. But of course, I worry.
I heard about a college student intern student who have been China and surrounding countries for the last three months. She just arrived at the Chicago Airport. She was held for a day then release to fly home with no quarantine.
I think this could be a problem if true. The is second / third person information.
You sir, are correct.
However, when the workers see the infection spread in the factories, they will stop working. Right now they wear their masks, but leave their eyes and ears open. No gloves for the most part.
Avoiding touching ones face is nearly impossible, which is how this spreads easily.
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