Skip to comments.Bernie is Now 50/50 to Win Nomination as Biden’s Chances Crater: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
Posted on 02/06/2020 9:54:00 PM PST by Conserv
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination more than double the probability of his nearest competitor according to Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight.
A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders odds at 1 in 2, with former Vice President Joe Bidens odds at 1 in 5, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 1 in 20, and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 1 in 30.
All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at 1 in 100 odds.
Sanders is also currently predicted to receive around 1,782 pledged delegates, with Biden at 987, Buttigieg at 402, Warren at 394, and Bloomberg at 339.
FiveThirtyEights model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts, explained the forecast. Were also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.
One medical event and Nate’s model no longer holds.
Rush says the Dems live by this guys words, no wonder theyre panicked
And Hilliary is a shoe-in?
Go Bernie Go!
Joe may be real busy in the near future getting his son out of the trouble he is in.
Don’t stop with Hunter. Go after Pelosi’s son and all the others. Read the book Profiles in Corruption. This is a good start. Don’t take years to investigate just do it.
On the 538 site, right behind Bernie Sanders, “No One Candidate has a majority of delegates” is at a 1 in 4 chance.
Perfect for Hillary to parachute in. Shes waiting for it, you know. And she has never forgiven the Bern.
Has anyone checked the latest online casino odds?
If the DNC tries to yank this away from Bernie again his supporters are going to riot. It’ll be 1968 all over again.
I was saying that a friend last night. Except for the assassinations. And there is no one in the Democratic party worth the price of a bullet.
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