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Bernie is Now 50/50 to Win Nomination as Biden’s Chances Crater: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
mediaite.com ^

Posted on 02/06/2020 9:54:00 PM PST by Conserv

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — more than double the probability of his nearest competitor — according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders’ odds at “1 in 2,” with former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds at “1 in 5,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at “1 in 20,” and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at “1 in 30.”

All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at “1 in 100” odds.

Sanders is also currently predicted to receive around 1,782 pledged delegates, with Biden at 987, Buttigieg at 402, Warren at 394, and Bloomberg at 339.

“FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts,” explained the forecast. “We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.”


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
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Slow Joe ain't gonna like this
1 posted on 02/06/2020 9:54:00 PM PST by Conserv
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To: Conserv

One medical event and Nate’s model no longer holds.


2 posted on 02/06/2020 9:56:23 PM PST by bjc (Show me the data!)
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To: Conserv

Rush says the Dems live by this guy’s words, no wonder they’re panicked


3 posted on 02/06/2020 10:00:19 PM PST by Equine1952
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To: Conserv

And Hilliary is a shoe-in?


4 posted on 02/06/2020 10:02:11 PM PST by Ingtar (Bedbugs, thy name is Democrat.)
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To: Conserv

Go Bernie Go!


5 posted on 02/06/2020 10:06:09 PM PST by fuente (Liberty resides in three boxes: the ballot box, the jury box and the cartridge box--Fredrick Douglas)
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To: Conserv
Creepy Joe shouldn't have smooched his 19 year old granddaughter. Extra creepy. Oh great, now Joe will challenge Old Commie Bernie to a push up contest...🙄
6 posted on 02/06/2020 10:06:26 PM PST by TheConservativeParty (MAGA KAG)
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To: Conserv

Joe may be real busy in the near future getting his son out of the trouble he is in.

Don’t stop with Hunter. Go after Pelosi’s son and all the others. Read the book Profiles in Corruption. This is a good start. Don’t take years to investigate just do it.


7 posted on 02/06/2020 10:18:48 PM PST by Singermom
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To: Conserv

On the 538 site, right behind Bernie Sanders, “No One Candidate has a majority of delegates” is at a 1 in 4 chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo


8 posted on 02/06/2020 10:20:55 PM PST by jeannineinsd
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To: jeannineinsd

Perfect for Hillary to parachute in. She’s waiting for it, you know. And she has never forgiven the Bern.


9 posted on 02/07/2020 12:38:49 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Conserv

Has anyone checked the latest online casino odds?


10 posted on 02/07/2020 3:51:39 AM PST by The_Harlequin
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To: fuente

If the DNC tries to yank this away from Bernie again his supporters are going to riot. It’ll be 1968 all over again.


11 posted on 02/07/2020 5:54:36 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

I was saying that a friend last night. Except for the assassinations. And there is no one in the Democratic party worth the price of a bullet.


12 posted on 02/07/2020 5:58:56 AM PST by Vermont Lt
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