The bad news: China just learned it could respond to a biological attack in a way that America never could.>
The Chinese could kill most of the worlds human population with bio-warfare, as long as they were willing to sacrifice 1/5th of their own population.
That sacrifice wouldn’t even make Xi blink if it meant world dominance by China.
Thanks for the sanity post.
It was greatly needed.
I think it’s too early to jump conclusions.
I would consider your conclusions if not for the posting from the SCMP and an outbreak in HK without animal vectors.
I’m starting to think more highly of the as yet unproven conspiracy theory that this originated in a Chinese lab and then somehow leaked out. If that’s true, this is like a bio-Chernobyl.
“How could this be? This was hailed as the most contagious disease ever reported?”
Not sure where you’re getting this, first that I’ve heard. Might you have a source?
What I’ve seen is that the virus seems to occupy a sweet spot between human transmissibity (which has now been confirmed in multiple countries, including the US) and severity, where diseases such SARS and Ebola are very difficult to transmit between humans but very severe, and the common cold being very easy to transmit, but not severe to most people.
But, you’re more than welcome to declare this threat over for the rest of the world...and we’re more than welcome to not yet join you in your premature optimism.
(and when you run to Costco in 3 weeks, don’t blame us when can’t find any decent food)
I respectfully have some different views. None of this stuff should be read in a dramatic or excited voice.
The problem with your position is that you missed a big thing in Hubei: they just opened 1,000 new beds. This means that the numbers will level off as those bed suck up a bunch of slack in the system. You need to watch the numbers to see if the trajectory resumes.
Currently on a logarithmic scale the plane of increases across all provinces appears to be faint consistent.
I am not blowing the horn to get every excited, but I think you might be a little premature.
And finally, the issue is not the fatalities. There are two things to be concerned about:
—a widespread outbreak would overwhelm any local health system, putting “regular” peopl at risk.
—The supply chain is already being disrupted. You can see it in automotive and medical supplies industries already. This could trim industrial output.
Finally, the status of the virus outside of China is about 6 weeks behind Wuhan.
No need to be alarmed. People should be taking standard flu precautions. But people should be careful not to dismiss how dangerous this could be. Reasonable preparations should be considered.
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
It’s withering away? not likely
sigh...
they can only test so many people a day, there is a limit
if that limit is 3000 and they have 6000 cases the rate go up 50%
if that limit is 3000 and they have 30,000 cases that number is 10%
Do you really believe the numbers from China?
Why did China just announce this morning they are building even more hospitals?
Then there is this:
The really bad news is that your analysis of the data is faulty.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Please look at the new cases chart. Yesterday, Japan was at 21 cases. Today, 45. The chart had a minor dip one day, but the rest have been steady up.
Here is an excellent twitter feed that is keeping track of new infections real time.
https://twitter.com/CoronavirusNews
Maybe artificially engineered viruses aren’t as powerful as the ones mother nature creates...
Or maybe the Chinese are lying...
I’m guessing we’ll know within the next 30 days.
Remdesivir
Starts talking about Remdesivir at about 3 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfGpdFNHoqQ
-mark-
Time will be the only true expose of the reality concerning this novel cornavirus.
Quarantines, stoppages of migrations and hygiene measures are the reasons for the lack of outbreak outside of China. The situation could change for the worst at any time.