I respectfully have some different views. None of this stuff should be read in a dramatic or excited voice.
The problem with your position is that you missed a big thing in Hubei: they just opened 1,000 new beds. This means that the numbers will level off as those bed suck up a bunch of slack in the system. You need to watch the numbers to see if the trajectory resumes.
Currently on a logarithmic scale the plane of increases across all provinces appears to be faint consistent.
I am not blowing the horn to get every excited, but I think you might be a little premature.
And finally, the issue is not the fatalities. There are two things to be concerned about:
—a widespread outbreak would overwhelm any local health system, putting “regular” peopl at risk.
—The supply chain is already being disrupted. You can see it in automotive and medical supplies industries already. This could trim industrial output.
Finally, the status of the virus outside of China is about 6 weeks behind Wuhan.
No need to be alarmed. People should be taking standard flu precautions. But people should be careful not to dismiss how dangerous this could be. Reasonable preparations should be considered.
>> Currently on a logarithmic scale the plane of increases across all provinces appears to be faint consistent. <<
Your numbers, then, are flat out wrong.
The total rate of new cases has plummeted to 15% per day (if we are to trust China’s data at all), from rates popping above 60%. And that’s a week-long trend. The number of new cases outside Hubei is already in decline.
>> Finally, the status of the virus outside of China is about 6 weeks behind Wuhan. <<
Yes, and again: it’s already in decline.
>> The problem with your position is that you missed a big thing in Hubei: they just opened 1,000 new beds. <<
You report that as if it’s huge. There are a quarter of a million people under quarantine (I believe reflective of the true extent of the outbreak in Hubei), and more than 30,000 ill.