Posted on 01/26/2020 3:12:08 AM PST by LibWhacker
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...
10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. (Flu reference: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the averag… https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 )
13/ ...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! Doctors warn China coronavirus carriers may show no symptoms of illness CAT scan revealed signs of pneumonia on 10-year-old Shenzhen boy’s lungs even though he had no outward signs of infection. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
I’m well aware of epidemiology. I e had classes on it. I actually have skin in the game I will be treating these patients if they become seriously ill. The numbers from China are garbage for a lot of reasons. We will soon have our own numbers and then know what we are dealing with. Excuse me if I prefer to deal with fact rather than internet fueled hype. It may be bad it may not. But mass panic can only make it worse.
“I keep having dreams of a nice black lady telling me to come visit her in Hemingford Home, Nebraska. Me and all my friends are welcome...strange.”
Even stranger is I have a sudden urge to go to Vegas. I’ve never even been to Vegas.
Thank you.
Can i get the virus playing Chinese Checkers?
Funny, yesterday I went out early to buy some masks and the first two clerks who waited on me were Asian.
The irony.
Hopefully, some Chinese will visit Soros soon to give him a progress report.
I did updates on a similar outbreak on the thread linked below. Reality turned out to be way different than projections. The updates are the last posts on the thread.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3210773/posts
Do surgical masks really work?
Officials address CDC confirmation of first case of coronavirus in Chicago area.
Amid the deadly outbreak of coronavirus in China that’s killed at least 26 people and sickened hundreds of others, officials in the country are encouraging the public to wear surgical masks to prevent the spread of disease. Demands for the masks have skyrocketed, with many retailers unable to keep up.
But the question remains: Do surgical masks really work?
CHINA CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK SENDS COUNTRY SCRAMBLING TO BUILD HOSPITAL
“Surgical masks will not prevent your acquiring diseases,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, and the medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, to Fox News.
Rather, he explained, surgical masks are typically used by surgeons to protect their patients from their mouth-borne germs — but “those masks don’t work to prevent inhaling diseases,” said Schaffner.
The masks, which cover the nose and mouth, are often made from a flimsy material and aren’t fitted to the face. In other words, spaces and gaps can form around the cheeks and edges of the mouth, making it easy for air to move in and out.
US AIRPORTS DISPLAYING CDC WARNING POSTERS AMID CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
“When coughing, you can feel the puffs of air coming out of the mask,” he said.
That said, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is currently recommending anyone infected with the novel coronavirus or being tested for it to wear a surgical mask when in public. And one infectious disease physician told The New York Times the masks could block “large respiratory droplets” from entering your body when an infected person sneezes or coughs. These large droplets are largely behind the spread of coronaviruses, the physician said.
A more protective mask, known as an N-95 respirator, may be more effective, said Schaffner. But, he noted, a non-medical professional using this mask is likely not using it correctly, doing little to prevent the spread of illness or inhaling a disease.
“The chance of the average person going into a pharmacy, wearing them correctly and for long periods of time is unlikely,” he said.
Right! China’s numbers are garbage which is
why the Chinese government called out the regular (armed with ammo) PLA troops (some in L4 hazmat suits) when they could have called out the civil police units by the thousands,
why they are destroying 5% of their economy,
why they have 55 million people quarantined,
why an R0 number of 3.8 is just impossible etc.
BOL!
Fort Detrick, mask/uniform of the day.
Thermal detection will not work this time. Patients are contagious up to five days prior to the manifestation of symptoms. By the time you’ve got a fever, you’ve had contact with dozens of people.
Oh, and masks won’t work either. The virus is present in tears.
_https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1221065421874397185
::https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/etukrg/a_husband_and_wife_chinese_spy_team_were_removed/
Go read the thread on twitter; it is chilling.
“14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks”
Except seasonal Flu averages between 2 an 3 RO...
The scare stories are spreading faster than the virus - despite a high-density ground zero.
I do not know why China does what they do. There is clearly a political undertone to everything. I have no doubt they are experiencing an outbreak. I also have no doubt they are releasing only the numbers they want the rest of the world to see. The real situation may be better or worse than portrayed. We will know soon enough what we are dealing with. Meanwhile panic on! It helps so much.
“Wuflue warfare time, total blockade of any Chinese tourists.
Emergency quarantine sites big enough to handle cruise ships.
More thermal detection at airports.”
Too late. Our government doesn’t seem to be serious about containment. Watch who deosn’t get sick.
yes panic is so comforting after all this time of holding it back.
Perhaps it is a good time to invest in a houseboat.
Prepping Academy:
Coronaviruses - Alert!
Extremely valuable info on this half-hour podcast. Start at 4 minutes in. WELL worth your time. Highly recommended, university-level epidemiology class on Coronavirus given in terms the layman will understand.
Well then post videos on how to do it properly. And not videos prepared by the HR training department either.
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