Posted on 01/26/2020 3:12:08 AM PST by LibWhacker
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...
10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. (Flu reference: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the averag… https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 )
13/ ...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! Doctors warn China coronavirus carriers may show no symptoms of illness CAT scan revealed signs of pneumonia on 10-year-old Shenzhen boy’s lungs even though he had no outward signs of infection. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
https://www.pdsoros.org/meet-the-fellows/eric-ding
Er...any relation to George Soros?
Cuz, if so, this story just took one mother of a left turn at Albuquerque.
I wonder how this compares to the swine flu.
Looking it up, swine flu’s R0 is about 1.5.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Soros’ tentacles reach into Harvard, but I’m not aware of any other connection than that incidental one to Feigl-Ding. But there could be a direct connection, I suppose, I just don’t know.
If Soros wants massive economic disruption, this is an effective way to get it.
R0=3.8 - 2019NCOV TO BE DETERMINED
R0=1.8 - Spanish flu killed 675,000 in the US ... 50,000,000-100,000,000 world wide.
R0=1.5 - Swine flu: It is estimated that 11–21% of the global population contracted the illness, and 151,000–579,000 died
Wuflue warfare time, total blockade of any Chinese tourists.
Emergency quarantine sites big enough to handle cruise ships.
More thermal detection at airports.
For starters.
Note to self, avoid Chinese people.....
What a way to mess their Feng Shui.
Yep. And he does. Or if he wanted to disrupt the election. I don’t think I’d be too eager to stand in line to vote with a bunch of other people who might be deathly ill. Guess I finally better vote by mail this year!
Well, this might also keep POTUS away from crowds and crowds away from Trump rallies.
Soros would be very happy if both those came to pass.
I do that anyway.
Only Indians are more rude.
I came across this on Reddit- supposedly from the Brazilian Ministry of Health- stock up on medical grade alcohol, masks and prepare to hunker down for a long time.
https://i.redd.it/bh3fj30c90d41.png
How will this affect rallies?
Where in Jax?
Im sure he and his henchmen and women are somehow connected to this corona virus
I think, given the hysterical Twitter feed seen above, we can at the very least tie Soros to inciting public panic.
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