Posted on 01/26/2020 3:12:08 AM PST by LibWhacker
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...
10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. (Flu reference: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the averag… https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 )
13/ ...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! Doctors warn China coronavirus carriers may show no symptoms of illness CAT scan revealed signs of pneumonia on 10-year-old Shenzhen boy’s lungs even though he had no outward signs of infection. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
Any type of home delivery/pick up would cease.
And if Soros is using his myrmidons to incite public panic, Soros and anyone aiding and abetting him need to be charged and locked up.
STAT.
R0=3.8; TEOTWAWKI
I swear, if Soros is behind this, that SOB needs to be drawn and quartered.
Along with anyone aiding and abetting him.
Fleming Island....
I’ve been reading a lot of articles about this viral critter. Seems most at risk are those with cardiac issues, diabetes, pre-existing COPD. Most old. Started mid-Dec, but only 50/60 reported deaths.
The virus may have a RO of 3.8, but viruses on crack, like this one seems to be, are likely to have higher incidences of replication failure with each mutation. What are the odds it will burn itself out by making too many mistakes in genetic coding? SARs was a big scare, but remember, only 800 deaths from that before it fizzled itself into history.
(what I don’t understand is China building a hospital in a week when they have so many ghost cities already built that patients could be transferred to. Disturbing the soil (airborne particulates) doesn’t seem the smartest thing to do if the carrier is rats and/or their fleas)
If accurate, then things will change - especially in China.
If you guys think an accurate R0 can be calculated under the circumstances that exist in Wuhan right now - you will be very disappointed.
Everything I’ve seen points at a 2.5 R-0, even the sole 3.8 I saw was down graded to a 2.5. 2.5 is still horrible enough. Reports I’ve been reading seem to indicate 4 or more different strains currently.
are those with cardiac issues, diabetes, pre-existing COPD. Most old.Gulp. Yep, that's me.
“stock up on medical grade alcohol”
What’s that, minimum 80 proof?
It’s the “Kung Flu”.
And everyone’s gonna be Kung Flu fighting.
Surely, then, you must have seen serosurveys of the general population and those with mild symptoms, yes? Done in the past 14 days?
Can you post a link?
I’m curious, those deaths worldwide numbers have an awfully big range, can you explain why that is?
I remember reading about the Spanish Flu that healthy adults would wake up fine in the AM and be dead by nightfall. Which is pretty scary.
I also remember reading in Hillary Mantel’s book about Thomas Cromwell how his wife died of “the Sweat”. Again, healthy people, dead in a day. I looked it up, but nobody seems to know what it was, maybe a form of hantavirus.
bookmark
That’s where I lived. Eagle Harbor.
I would have walked out once I saw her.
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