Posted on 01/26/2020 3:12:08 AM PST by LibWhacker
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...
10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. (Flu reference: Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the averag… https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 )
13/ ...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! Doctors warn China coronavirus carriers may show no symptoms of illness CAT scan revealed signs of pneumonia on 10-year-old Shenzhen boy’s lungs even though he had no outward signs of infection. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
Thanks for posting...
“George Soros owns WuXi Pharma Biotech, located at 666 Gaoxin Road East Lake High-tech Development Zone Wuhan 430075, China."
I have not verified this, nor do I know how to. But if true...
and this was his attempt to shake things up to stop Trump?
Even his decabillion fortune will not save him from the Red Chinese. And they tend to be diabolically clever in their torture.
I don’t think Xi survives this.
The party elites are also the factory/shipping owners. They’re taking a bath with the shutdowns/quarantines.
if only it were true and if so, we should try to pin this on Bloomberg, and Sanders too.
This is rather concerning.
10 new cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in Beijing
Ten new cases of novel coronavirus were confirmed in Beijing on Saturday, according to local health authorities. This brings the number of confirmed cases to 51 in the Chinese capital.
Beijing’s Municipal Health Commission said in a statement on Sunday that three of the patients are medical staff, two of which had a travel history to Wuhan. The third contracted the disease after sitting with one of the infected doctors during a meeting. (emphasis mine)
(Cover: AP Photo)
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CAT scan revealed signs of pneumonia on 10-year-old Shenzhen boy’s lungs even though he had no outward signs of infection
Strict quarantine and contact-tracing regimes ‘crucial’ to containing outbreak
= = = = = = = = =
China National Railway Group said 387 railway stations nationwide are using temperature checks for passengers entering and leaving the stations as of Saturday. The railway department had cooperated with the local governments to close 72 railway stations in Hubei Province, and fever screening procedures have been put in place.
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20:32, 25-Jan-2020
Beijing to stop all inter-province shuttle buses from January 26
Beijing has announced that it will suspend all inter-province shuttle buses from January 26 amid the coronavirus outbreak, local authorities said.
https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html
Thank you for information.
Paul Soros is the brother of George.
“I think, given the hysterical Twitter feed seen above, we can at the very least tie Soros to inciting public panic.”
The R0 transmissibility number is accurate. It’s very high, he’s not inventing that.
But this does fit the modus operandi of what Michael Crichton called the “P-L-M”, the Political-Legal-Media Complex.
They gin up and exploit a “state of fear” to gain and retain power and money. Crichton bases his 2004 thriller State of Fear on that very theme.
“The Stand” coming to a theater near you.
Mother Abigail
5.56mm
Drug stores usually stock 91% right next to the standard 70%.
I think I’m gonna not panic. Not just yet...
“I remember reading about the Spanish Flu that healthy adults would wake up fine in the AM and be dead by nightfall. Which is pretty scary.”
It’s alleged to have been due to a Cytokine Storm. It’s a massive immune system response to a hybrid flu virus. Young adults with strong immune systems could drown in their own antibodies.
Other grades of alcohol probably wouldn’t hurt either.
Would the elderly and young be more likely to have severe cases?
Well, then the only remaining workable solution is
Doesn’t China have bio research labs in the province that might have researching and creating/weaponizing such? The strangeness described is indeed worrisome.
Just what we needed, an excuse to buy everclear!
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