[DoodleBob]

You have information that shows the virus is not that transmissible and not that lethal and will burn out soon or are you just whistling in the dark like a little boy?

Oh boy...ok...I'll try again.

Transmissible: About 1700 cases out of about 70 million people quarantined. That's 2.4 cases for every 100,000 people...while this is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, the death rate in America from infectious diseases in 2014 was 43/100,000. Since the infection rate would likely be higher, I'd say the China situation isn't hair-raising (yet).

lethal: 50 deaths out of 1,700 cases = 3% conditional death rate. Ebola's contemporary conditional death rate is 67%.

In 2018-2019 in the US, there were 10 deaths per 100,000 people from influenza. You had a bigger likelihood of dying in the USA from the flu than of dying from whateveritis in China.

Hard analysis always trumps hysteria. I hope that helps, son.

[BusterDog]

Best estimates are about 250k infected by Feb 4 with a 4% death rate. Run your math on those numbers, Chief

[Grimmy]

Hard analysis always trumps hysteria. I hope that helps, son.

Hard analysis...

Using data that comes from a communist Chinese gov that has never, not once, ever in its existence ever admitted to anything that might make it look bad.

Uh huh. Riiight.

[BusterDog]

And out of those 1700 cases how many deaths will be added to the 50? Over 300 of them are in ICU. Even if non, 3% death rate is huge compare to Hong Kong Pandemic of 1968-1969 which was 0.5%.

Have you pickled your brain, Chief?

[RummyChick]

Your numbers are useless. Commie China won’t be telling you the truth.

In addition, the dying number will contain people that would have lived had they had more advanced health care...or for that matter..any health care.

So the ability to survive this with adequate health care is unknown. We will know soon as it has hit more advanced areas.

[Mom MD]

There you go trying to dampen the hysteria... Truth is we know only what China has told us which is likely garbage. However I do not see the case load exploding here at least yet, if we get a few more cases which i suspect we will we. an begin to draw some conclusions on the ease of spread the and the virulence of this strain. Unfortunately it is easier to fear monger and call others names than wait for facts. We should no more in the next few weeks and until then there is not much that can be done about it. The genie is out of the bottle

[FoundinTexas]

I have a hard time believing my own government. But I absolutely don’t believe Chinese propaganda. When have they ever been honest?

[Vermont Lt]

I think you might be missing some of the point.

The deaths from this are not my concern. If it catches fire (I know it’s a big if) it will overwhelm the medical system during a peak period. There will be a bunch of ancillary deaths, as there will be no room at the inn. This leads to more contagion as people are at home or on the streets.

Think what that would do for the economy.

[Zhang Fei]

[Oh boy...ok...I’ll try again.

Transmissible: About 1700 cases out of about 70 million people quarantined. That’s 2.4 cases for every 100,000 people...while this is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, the death rate in America from infectious diseases in 2014 was 43/100,000. Since the infection rate would likely be higher, I’d say the China situation isn’t hair-raising (yet).

lethal: 50 deaths out of 1,700 cases = 3% conditional death rate. Ebola’s contemporary conditional death rate is 67%.

In 2018-2019 in the US, there were 10 deaths per 100,000 people from influenza. You had a bigger likelihood of dying in the USA from the flu than of dying from whateveritis in China.

Hard analysis always trumps hysteria. I hope that helps, son. ]

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You think China doesn’t have a flu season? You think Xi Jinping zeroed out perhaps 5% of the country’s GDP despite the infection being less lethal than the flu? That seems like a stretch.