[Zhang Fei]

[Oh boy...ok...I’ll try again.

Transmissible: About 1700 cases out of about 70 million people quarantined. That’s 2.4 cases for every 100,000 people...while this is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, the death rate in America from infectious diseases in 2014 was 43/100,000. Since the infection rate would likely be higher, I’d say the China situation isn’t hair-raising (yet).

lethal: 50 deaths out of 1,700 cases = 3% conditional death rate. Ebola’s contemporary conditional death rate is 67%.

In 2018-2019 in the US, there were 10 deaths per 100,000 people from influenza. You had a bigger likelihood of dying in the USA from the flu than of dying from whateveritis in China.

Hard analysis always trumps hysteria. I hope that helps, son. ]

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You think China doesn’t have a flu season? You think Xi Jinping zeroed out perhaps 5% of the country’s GDP despite the infection being less lethal than the flu? That seems like a stretch.

[Hugh the Scot]

Oh boy, okay, I’m going to point this out one more time: the currently infected are a null set.

That 50 of 1700 are dead indicates absolutely nothing if 1650 of them are still infected. That could mean they’re recovering, or it could mean they’re not yet dead.

This is why using cases vs. fatalities is stupid. All of the comparisons are being made to outbreaks of flu or viral infections in the past, where outcomes are known.

The only valid data set for calculating motality for THIS outbreak is using patients who have recovered vs. those who have not.

Using those numbers, this particular outbteak is cause for grave concern

[DoodleBob]

You think Xi Jinping zeroed out perhaps 5% of the country’s GDP despite the infection being less lethal than the flu? That seems like a stretch.

As I've written elsewhere, China's official GDP growth rate in 4Q2019 was the lowest in 29 years. What does the Communist govt with a pro-population control/one child policy fear more - a flu strain or loss of capital flows owing to foreign concern around the fundamentals of China's economy? Wither China?

Ah, but if the narrative becomes that the economy hits the shoals because of an alleged PANDEMIC, well...that's a GREAT story - "the GDP fall wasn't due to fundamentals. Keep investing."

Now, clearly something bad is happening in China. And I'm not saying for certain that China is taking advantage of a crisis. But there is a LOT that doesn't add up. All I am recommending is that we watch the magician's other hand and not panic.