[BusterDog]

And out of those 1700 cases how many deaths will be added to the 50? Over 300 of them are in ICU. Even if non, 3% death rate is huge compare to Hong Kong Pandemic of 1968-1969 which was 0.5%.

Have you pickled your brain, Chief?

[DoodleBob]

Nope. The issue isn't the conditional death rate (or, technically, the case fatality ratio/CFR) of 3% or 0.5%. The issue is the likelihood of infection AND CFR. The HK pandemic was impactful because lots of people got it. So far, this thing in China isn't that contagious. Thus, a 3% CFR isn't scary if it's unlikely you'll catch it. It's like AIDS.

I don't trust their government, or the data that much but I'll analyze it because it's what we've got. I will also weigh humanity's predeliction to overhype and freak out when it comes to pandemics and scale back the current hysteria accordingly. Throw it all into the blender, and I get a good smoothie vs pickled herring.

Thanks for the challenge.