Russia's Economy: Putin’s Stagnation Now Longer and Deeper than Brezhnev’s

Eurasia: New Series ^ | Oct 2019

[CondoleezzaProtege]

Over the last 11 years, Russia has suffered two devaluations of the ruble and the most prolonged decline in the standard of living in this century, with the economy at the start of this year only 8.8 percent larger than that in 2008.

That means that the Russian economy has grown on average 0.88 percent a year, just over a third of the world economy’s growth rate, roughly half of the growth of the American GDP and nine percent of the growth of the Chinese economy over this period, official statistics show.

Not only is this period of stagnation now longer than was Brezhnev’s but it is deeper as well: in the 1970s, the Soviet economy grew approximately 1.5 percent a year, nearly twice what it has managed under Putin since 2008. And if the IMF projections are to be believed, there is no end in sight.

But perhaps the most damning aspect of the numbers about the Russian economy is this: economic growth in Russia today is less than a third of the three percent achieved in the last year of Boris Yeltsin’s reign, and Russia’s share of world GDP has fallen from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent since Putin succeeded him.

Moscow consultant Andrey Movchan says the explanation is simple: The security people in power in Russia now understand only how to give orders and receive reports; they do not understand how an economy works or how to open the way to development. Until that changes, the economy – and that means the Russian people – aren’t going to escape from stagnation.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Obama’s fault?

Trump’s fault?

Xi’s fault?

[rrrod]

But but Putin walks on water...

[Pearls Before Swine]

He may not walk on water, but he’d be a better leader than, say, Lizzy Warren. He may not be Mr. Nice Guy, but he doesn’t appear to be insane.

[PapaBear3625]

The security people in power in Russia now understand only how to give orders and receive reports; they do not understand how an economy works or how to open the way to development.

What Russia needs is a free market -- an environment where people can start businesses and use their entrepreneurial skills to create new products.

But such an environment does not benefit oligarchs.

[rrrod]

Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba thank you for your kind words...

[MNJohnnie]

Gee amazing how many good things happen when the US decided to dump it insane 1960s environmental wacko-ism and purse energy independence

[Midwesterner53]

Russia could be a great country with a free government and unrestrained capitalism. Alas, it is not.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Given the potential of that country, that’s tragic.

[NorseViking]

“”””Over the last 11 years, Russia has suffered two devaluations of the ruble and the most prolonged decline in the standard of living in this century, with the economy at the start of this year only 8.8 percent larger than that in 2008.””””

LOL. That is somehow true although not entirely correct.
2008 was a year of global recession and it was fixed quite fast. The real Russian stagnation started in 2014 and was primarily a result of economic war by globalists in form of sanctions and different other forms of economic sabotage.
It also worth mentioning that the current living standards in Russia are only worse comparing to the period of 2007-2013. It is still highest in recorded history in spite of all the sanctions and sabotage.

[zeestephen]

These are misleading numbers.

2008 was the start of the Great Recession, the worst recession in 80 years.

In the USA, after 2008, our GDP growth has been less than 2.0% per year, which is not good, either.

Also, the average price of oil and natural gas after 2008 - Russia’s most important source of income - has been significantly below the average price of oil and gas BEFORE 2008.

I am no fan of Putin.

But blaming slow GDP growth in Russia only on Putin is not accurate.

[irishjuggler]

Exactly right. The closest they got to that was during the Yeltsin years. They were almost there but then retreated to oligarchy and crony capitalism.

[McGruff]

I guess he’ll be replaced soon. /sarc

[NorseViking]

“”””Exactly right. The closest they got to that was during the Yeltsin years. They were almost there but then retreated to oligarchy and crony capitalism.””””

I am sorry, sir, but it is the most ignorant post on tread.

[Zhang Fei]

The Russian economy has expanded during Putin’s tenure because oil prices went from about $20 when Putin took office to about $50 today. If oil prices go to $100, the Russian economy will do well again. Think of Russia as the Saudi Arabia of the north, with deserts of ice instead of sand.

Russia could have become a manufacturing destination the way much of Eastern Europe has. The problem is the Russians kept jerking foreign investors around, to the point that investors became gun-shy. Between that and Putin’s kleptocratic ways, the net result is that Russia is basically a petrostate whose economy revolves around oil prices.

[Zhang Fei]

Also, the average price of oil and natural gas after 2008 - Russia’s most important source of income - has been significantly below the average price of oil and gas BEFORE 2008.

Average natural gas prices have been flattish:

Average oil prices are up:

Besides, Russia is a vast storehouse of native talent. Where is Russia's Huawei? Where is Russia's Alibaba? Why isn't Tupolev shaking up the world of civilian aviation? Why hasn't it given Bombardier and Embraer a run for their money? Why is Russia a glorified petrostate? Russians have a 10 IQ point advantage over Arabs. Why isn't that advantage showing up in Russia's industrial stats vs Arab petrostates?

Flag	Country	IQ	Population 2019
	Singapore	108	5,804,337
	Hong Kong	108	7,436,154
	South Korea	106	51,225,308
	Japan	105	126,860,301
	China	105	1,433,783,686
	Taiwan	104	23,773,876
	Italy	102	60,550,075
	Iceland	101	339,031
	Mongolia	101	3,225,167
	Switzerland	101	8,591,365
	Luxembourg	100	615,729
	Norway	100	5,378,857
	Austria	100	8,955,102
	Netherlands	100	17,097,130
	United Kingdom	100	67,530,172
	Estonia	99	1,325,648
	Finland	99	5,532,156
	Sweden	99	10,036,379
	Belgium	99	11,539,328
	Canada	99	37,411,047
	Poland	99	37,887,768
	Germany	99	83,517,045
	Andorra	98	77,142
	Latvia	98	1,906,743
	Denmark	98	5,771,876
	Hungary	98	9,684,679
	Czech Republic	98	10,689,209
	Australia	98	25,203,198
	Spain	98	46,736,776
	France	98	65,129,728
	United States	98	329,064,917
	Malta	97	440,372
	Belarus	97	9,452,411
	Ukraine	97	43,993,638
	Russia	97	145,872,256
	Slovenia	96	2,078,654
	Uruguay	96	3,461,734
	Moldova	96	4,043,263
	Slovakia	96	5,457,013
	Israel	95	8,519,377
	Portugal	95	10,226,187
	Armenia	94	2,957,731
	Georgia	94	3,996,765
	Kazakhstan	94	18,551,427
	Romania	94	19,364,557
	Vietnam	94	96,462,106
	Bulgaria	93	7,000,119
	Argentina	93	44,780,677
	Ireland	92	4,882,495
	Greece	92	10,473,455
	Malaysia	92	31,949,777
	Brunei	91	433,285
	Cyprus	91	1,198,575
	Lithuania	91	2,759,627
	Sierra Leone	91	7,813,215
	Cambodia	91	16,486,542
	Thailand	91	69,625,582
	Albania	90	2,880,917
	Bosnia And Herzegovina	90	3,301,000
	Croatia	90	4,130,304
	Kyrgyzstan	90	6,415,850
	Chile	90	18,952,038
	Turkey	90	83,429,615
	Suriname	89	581,372
	Mauritius	89	1,269,668
	Costa Rica	89	5,047,561
	Laos	89	7,169,455
	Serbia	89	8,772,235
	Samoa	88	197,097
	Ecuador	88	17,373,662
	Mexico	88	127,575,529
	Nauru	87	10,756
	Guyana	87	782,766
	Turkmenistan	87	5,942,089
	Tajikistan	87	9,321,018
	Azerbaijan	87	10,047,718
	Bolivia	87	11,513,100
	Uzbekistan	87	32,981,716
	Iraq	87	39,309,783
	Myanmar	87	54,045,420
	Brazil	87	211,049,527
	Indonesia	87	270,625,568
	Seychelles	86	97,739
	Tonga	86	104,494
	Kuwait	86	4,207,083
	Philippines	86	108,116,615
	Kiribati	85	117,606
	Fiji	85	889,953
	Trinidad And Tobago	85	1,394,973
	Eritrea	85	3,497,117
	Cuba	85	11,333,483
	Yemen	85	29,161,922
	Peru	85	32,510,453
	Marshall Islands	84	58,791
	Micronesia	84	113,815
	Vanuatu	84	299,882
	Belize	84	390,353
	Solomon Islands	84	669,823
	Panama	84	4,246,439
	Paraguay	84	7,044,636
	United Arab Emirates	84	9,770,529
	Jordan	84	10,101,694
	Venezuela	84	28,515,829
	Saudi Arabia	84	34,268,528
	Morocco	84	36,471,769
	Afghanistan	84	38,041,754
	Uganda	84	44,269,594
	Colombia	84	50,339,443
	Iran	84	82,913,906
	Nigeria	84	200,963,599
	Pakistan	84	216,565,318
	Bahrain	83	1,641,172
	Oman	83	4,974,986
	Libya	83	6,777,452
	Papua New Guinea	83	8,776,109
	Tunisia	83	11,694,719
	Syria	83	17,070,135
	Algeria	83	43,053,054
	Lebanon	82	6,855,713
	Dominican Republic	82	10,738,958
	Zimbabwe	82	14,645,468
	Madagascar	82	26,969,307
	Bangladesh	82	163,046,161
	India	82	1,366,417,754
	Maldives	81	530,953
	Nicaragua	81	6,545,502
	Honduras	81	9,746,117
	Egypt	81	100,388,073
	Barbados	80	287,025
	Bhutan	80	763,092
	El Salvador	80	6,453,553
	Kenya	80	52,573,973
	Guatemala	79	17,581,472
	Zambia	79	17,861,030
	Sri Lanka	79	21,323,733
	Qatar	78	2,832,067
	Nepal	78	28,608,710
	Comoros	77	850,886
	South Africa	77	58,558,270
	Cape Verde	76	549,935
	Mauritania	76	4,525,696
	Senegal	76	16,296,364
	Namibia	74	2,494,530
	Mali	74	19,658,031
	Ghana	73	30,417,856
	Tanzania	72	58,005,463
	Saint Vincent And The Grenadines	71	110,589
	Jamaica	71	2,948,279
	Central African Republic	71	4,745,185
	Sudan	71	42,813,238
	Antigua And Barbuda	70	97,118
	Botswana	70	2,303,697
	Togo	70	8,082,366
	Benin	70	11,801,151
	Rwanda	70	12,626,950
	Burundi	69	11,530,580
	Malawi	69	18,628,747
	Niger	69	23,310,715
	Ethiopia	69	112,078,730
	Djibouti	68	973,560
	Somalia	68	15,442,905
	Chad	68	15,946,876
	Burkina Faso	68	20,321,378
	Angola	68	31,825,295
	Saint Kitts And Nevis	67	52,823
	Dominica	67	71,808
	Guinea Bissau	67	1,920,922
	Lesotho	67	2,125,268
	Liberia	67	4,937,374
	Haiti	67	11,263,077
	Guinea	67	12,771,246
	Gabon	64	2,172,579
	Cameroon	64	25,876,380
	Mozambique	64	30,366,036
	Saint Lucia	62	182,790
	Equatorial Guinea	59	1,355,986

[Wildbill22]

Well if Russia/Putin were to leave their neighbors alone instead of invading them then they might not have all the economic sanctions in place against them, and they might be enjoying a much higher level of economic prosperity.

[tet68]

Why, what they need is some democrats to come over
and show them how to do it.../s

[SandwicheGuy]

LOL. That is somehow true although not entirely correct. 2008 was a year of global recession and it was fixed quite fast. The real Russian stagnation started in 2014 and was primarily a result of economic war by globalists in form of sanctions and different other forms of economic sabotage. It also worth mentioning that the current living standards in Russia are only worse comparing to the period of 2007-2013. It is still highest in recorded history in spite of all the sanctions and sabotage.

Thank you for your illuminating post. I didn't realize that and now I know.

[poconopundit]

How can this IQ data explain that the United States is way down on the list of High IQ nations? And yet, so many entrepreneurial geniuses were made in America.

An intelligent critique of IQ as a measure of personal success is given by Black Swan author, Nassim Taleb in the essay:

IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle