Vanity: Trump and Electoral Math

Me, with assist from 270 to Win ^ | 9/9 | Yours Truly

[TangledUpInBlue]

Ok all, let me know what you think....

[reed13k]

I personally think he takes everything he had before plus has pickups in Nevada (barely), Minnesota, Virginia(barely), Maine, New Hampshire ,and Vermont.

I think depending on who he’s up against he even has a chance at NY and NJ.

Too much time between now and then.

[TakebackGOP]

GWB only lost Wisconsin by 5,000 votes in 2000 and 10,000 votes in 2004.

[EQAndyBuzz]

Wisconsin has jobs, Michigan has jobs, Pennsy has jobs. If the people of those states want to go back to the way it was prior to Trump, they have no one but themselves to blame. I do think Trump will take Minnesota this time around.

[newfreep]

Trump's ONLY opponent is voter fraud...and it will be historically massive and ALL tools will be used by the DNC/CPUSA.

Frankly, I just don't see anything being done to, at the very least, control what is coming.

[jjotto]

https://www.sos.state.mn.us/media/2818/us-president-results-map-margin-by-county.pdf

[PGalt]

Looks about right at this point in time. It will be interesting to see how many people have woken up in 2020. Their propaganda machine is malfunctioning and their candidates are clowns. The ‘rats should be run out of town...every town.

Thanks for posting.

[TangledUpInBlue]

I don’t ever see a GOP candidate winning NY or NJ. I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

[TangledUpInBlue]

Well, that’s why I asked. A relative of mine keeps telling me there’s a coming landslide but that just doesn’t work mathematically unless some reliably blue states flip.

[jz638]

The real genius of Trump’s 2016 campaign was that it wasn’t framed as an effort to carve up the country and fixate on getting 271 electoral votes. Sure, the campaign had its eyes on districts and local polls, but the candidate had a message that wasn’t tailored to evangelicals, or whites, or seniors (despite what the media claimed), but open to any American. The reaction by the left to divide, demand fealty from supporters, and frame any Trump voter as a Nazi is a reflection of how dangerous they see it.

If the Trump 2020 campaign devolves into a mishmash of campaign promises meant to sway specific states (the strategy uses by the RNC from 1996-2012), it’s over.

[Spruce]

Here’s another oddity — I’ve had to ride the train to work. Which stops in the Cedar-Riverside area of Minneapolis. This is where all of the Somali immigrants first settled. There are a lot of well-dressed young Somali women that get on at this stop to work downtown. When you listen to their conversations many of them are pretty conservative and even entrepreneurial in their viewpoints. It would be sweet irony to see the imported Dem votes turn red! Boom!

[grania]

PA's going to be tough. My impression is just about any dem except hillary would've won the state last time. I'm in OH and it may not be as secure as it seems on paper. The state's Republicans have mostly lost their way. Kasick and his cronies were all about rewarding deep pocket friends. Trumps' presidency hasn't stopped that, and undecideds are looking to dems to put people's needs first.

FWIW, it happened for State Rep in my district. It's gerrymandered to get a friend of government contracts to Columbus. He was so bad he lost and the dems token candidate won.

[DoodleDawg]

Plus the rats always take those 10 electors for granted. 2016 was very close up here.

Because Democrat voters stayed home. The chance of that happening in 2020 is slim.

[TangledUpInBlue]

Again, this sort of graph is true of every state. Look up NY. One blue county. But it’s where everyone lives. Hennepin and Ramsey county have to be where 30% of the states population lives. You can’t just discount it on a county by county basis.

Look up Illinois - same thing re: Cook County
Look up NJ - Same thing after Hudson, Essex and Camden counties... All with big cities.

[DoodleDawg]

Real estate doesn’t vote, people do. Those blue counties have a lot more people in them than the red counties do.

[Sgt_Schultze]

There is no way to predict the enhanced democrat fraud factor of same day registration and ballot harvesting, along google unlimited assistance through search contamination. Nothing is normal or usual.

[DoodleDawg]

Which stops in the Cedar-Riverside area of Minneapolis. This is where all of the Somali immigrants first settled. There are a lot of well-dressed young Somali women that get on at this stop to work downtown. When you listen to their conversations many of them are pretty conservative and even entrepreneurial in their viewpoints. It would be sweet irony to see the imported Dem votes turn red! Boom!

That would be in the Minnesota 5th? Omar's district? Where she won with almost 80% of the vote?

[Spruce]

Yep. I live in that district, as well.
It was white liberals that elected her. To show how enlightened and progressive they are.

[CommerceComet]

PA's going to be tough.

If the Democrats keep attacking coal and calling for the ban on fossil fuels, Trump might not be able to lose Pennsylvania if he tried.

[DoodleDawg]

It was white liberals that elected her. To show how enlightened and progressive they are.

Then safe to say that 80%, along with all the other enlightened and progressive liberals in the Twin Cities, will be voting against Trump. And those liberals who sat out 2016 will be voting against Trump. And you still think Trump can flip Minnesota?

[DoodleDawg]

If the Democrats keep attacking coal and calling for the ban on fossil fuels, Trump might not be able to lose Pennsylvania if he tried.

Not a lot of coal miners in Pittsburg and Philadelphia and the mainline suburbs. Every time Pennsylvania goes blue it's because Democrats have carried those three areas by large margins, and the rest of the state came along with them. If Pennsylvania goes back to blue in 2020 that'll be why.