The Cold, Hard Math Says Netflix Could Crash 70%

Frobes ^ | 8/6/19 | Stephen McBride

[GrandJediMasterYoda]

The Cold, Hard Math Says Netflix Could Crash 70%

It’s official... it’s the beginning of the end for Netflix (NFLX).

As you may have heard, the online video company made a troubling announcement...

This quarter, for the first time ever, it lost American subscribers. Hundreds of thousands of them.

The stock plunged more than 11% on the news.

I’ve been “sounding the alarm” on Netflix’s troubled business since last July when its stock was trading above $400.

[Impala64ssa]

Fauxcumentary that made the Central park 5 thugs look like innocent little children
They were indeed not guilty of THAT particular crime but it was the way they acted at the time of their arrest, laughing and carrying on like fools in front of the media instead of keeping their big mouths shut. No wonder why so many people at the time, quite a few libs included had that "give them a fair trial then hang them" mentality

[CedarDave]

Ha! Last October Netflix purchased Albuquerque Studios for more than $30 million (with the assistance of New Mexico [$10 million of Local Economic Development Act funds] and Albuquerque [$4.5 million of LEDA funds]). In return it promised to direct spend at least $600 million on its own productions in New Mexico in the first five years while occupying its own studio and $400 million in direct and indirect spending, which includes leasing the facility to other production companies, in the following five years ( Netflix decision: ‘It’s good for everybody’[ABQ Journal article]).

We'll see how this holds up if the current prediction by the Forbes author comes true. Our new left-wing radical Dem governor hailed this as a plus to aid in eliminating the state's reliance (>35%) on oil and gas income (which they are trying to eliminate with additional rules and regulations, and legislative action [which failed] to restrict fracking and other industry advancements).

[Cobra64]

Odd how that works, isn’t it? 😁

[northislander]

Tesla could crash 70% from this level...

[Crusher138]

You folks have a lot more time on your hands than I do...

Up at 5:30am, go to gym.

Home by 6:30am, make coffee, drink coffee while checking emails, calendar and FR.

At work by 8:00am. Spend day printing shirts, talking to customers, etc.

Home around 6:00 - 6:30pm.

We usually watch TV after dinner. I tend to work on projects while watching.

In bed by 9:30-ish.

We work half days on Saturdays the other half is chores. Sunday is church and the day of rest.

Not a ton of time for scuba diving, especially here in the desert.

[reformedliberal]

...filled with SJW bullsnot (global warming flooded the world, a trans person not given a gender, threesomes, and bi-crap) it was also terrible science fiction.
__________________
We like sci-fi and episodic TV. I watch 1 hr/day, during dinner and DH might watch an hour of something on Amazon or something he likes and I don’t later on.

We lasted 3 episodes for “Millennials In Space”. Terrible in all aspects: story arc/characters/world building.

ALL presentations will have 5 stars showing when you first start watching. It’s up to you to review it for yourself.

[thoughtomator]

Already-realized subscriber count drops by Netflix are accounted for not-yet-existing new services... how?

[Boogieman]

“Plus Netflix is spending way too much on original content.”

Yes, and most of it is not great. Stranger Things was the exception, not the rule, and even that they couldn’t resist inserting some “woke” messaging into the 3rd season.

[Boogieman]

“So we get streaming content and prime shipping for less than we’re paying Netflix right now.”

I got a similar deal with Spotify. Since I already bought Spotify premium for ad-free music streaming that I listen to every day, they merged with Hulu and gave me a free membership to Hulu (with ads) for no charge. Not a bad deal, even if Hulu doesn’t have too much great content.

[Boogieman]

If they want to do sci-fi, they should just bring back “Dark Matter”. That was interesting and they already have the rights to the re-runs.

[hinckley buzzard]

If you read the article, you can see why he thinks the stock will tank. But that assumes Netflix will do nothing in the meantime to maintain its earnings in the face of growing competition. I doubt that premise will hold. They are too big to go down without a fight. I think the analysis is shallow, and one sided. Maybe he has a stake in talking the stock down? Short seller anyone?

[Repealthe17thAmendment]

Netflix = Blockbuster Video

[sparklite2]

I’m hoping for a second season of “Another Life” with Katee Sackhoff but I don’t see any evidence of one in the works.

Maybe the ending of the first season was the real finale, in which case it wasn’t very good.

[Repealthe17thAmendment]

In the early days of streaming, Netflix could provide content that no one else could. But that is changing dramatically in the next year, as other large media companies launch their own streaming services.

Netflix will still exist, but they will become more on the model of HBO. As long as their shows are strong, and their rates are competitive, they will be in the mix. They will likely produce most of their own content, and pick up independent films that can be licensed at an acceptable rate.

It will be common for people to subscribe to three or four services because the rates are low, and it's incredibly convenient- more than cable or a satellite dish. Those are the real losers-cable & dish.

[higgmeister]

This quarter, for the first time ever, it lost American subscribers. Hundreds of thousands of them.

I left Netflix last year and also dropped HULU. We are not going to renew Amazon Prime either.

[Balding_Eagle]

We were among the hundreds of thousands, and when they asked why we were canceling I simply said “ you went gay, we go away”

[TexasTransplant]

*** “Not a ton of time for scuba diving, especially here in the desert” ***

I live on the Coast so SCUBA is available... You have Snorkeling in Rivers even in the Desert ;^)

I used to tube in AZ... lots of fun!

My kid brother didn’t have a good day tubing in AZ, Flash Flood separated him from his vehicle and all his stuff then a bunch of Javalina chased him up a cactus after he hiked back up to where he could see his truck and he was trapped up that cactus for hours, bleeding.

He cussed me for a long time for talking him into the trip... I can’t help it, I laughed at him more than he cussed at me.

(Larry the Cable Guy ... “That right there is Funny, I don’t care who you are”)

[Libloather]

Are the Chicoms involved? Fingers crossed.

[Maris Crane]

Few words bother me as me as much as “woke.”

It is a stupid, meaningless word, so I can safely say, I hate, loathe, despise and abhor...”woke.”

That’s jut my feelings.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

...losing big portions of its content catalog

The streaming catalog is no big deal to me. What I like is a deep library of old movies on DVD and BluRay Disc. I'm really ticked that their physical library keeps shrinking. I have something like 275 titles in my queue that I've added over the years and I watch maybe 20 movies per year. Every time I go online to look at my queue, I see that more and more of them have been removed from their library and are no longer available. Very frustrating!

I'm sure I'm a very, very small cohort of customers with this concern.