Posted on 07/24/2019 10:19:28 AM PDT by SMGFan
The New York Times' Nate Cohn penned an analysis piece that, bucking conventional trends, said that there is an opportunity for higher voter turnout in 2020 to actually benefit President Trump’s odds of being reelected.
The UpShot analysis found that instead of the traditional wisdom that higher voter turnout just helps Democrats, there are opportunities and risks for both parties. The author based his findings on voter registration files, the validated turnout of 50,000 respondents to New York Times/Siena College pre-election surveys in 2018, polls of unregistered voters, and census data.
High voter turnout typically favors Democrats because younger, nonwhite, and less wealthy voters (who tend to vote more for Democrats) are underrepresented at the polls. But Trump has a base of support among less educated white voters, who are also underrepresented at the polls.
After the Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterm elections, flipping dozens of GOP-held seats, some saw that as a harbinger for 2020, although typically the party not in control fares better during midterm contests. Cohn found that Trump’s white working-class supporters from 2016 were likely to have not voted in 2018. Although, he contends that they are the likeliest to return and vote for Trump in 2020, which could hurt the Democrats’ shot at the White House.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
You mean real, living citizen voters will out-vote the dead, the feeble, and the illegal voters?
Why fears of an Electoral College nightmare in 2020 are overblown
Nate Cohn sent a panic wave crashing through Democratic Party circles Friday. The New York Times elections analyst — who is also responsible for the newspaper’s terror-inducing elections forecasting tool “The Needle” — wrote a piece arguing that President Trump could suffer an even more decisive popular vote loss next year than he did in 2016, while still holding the Electoral College. But this panic was premature: While Cohn’s scenario is worth psychologically preparing for, it is much less likely than he would have us believe.
Let’s first understand Cohn’s argument. He uses data from the 2018 midterms to estimate the president’s approval rating in each state. Like most observers, Cohn expects Wisconsin to be the pivotal state in the 2020 presidential election and presents numbers from Marquette University polling that suggest Trump has held steady in the critical Milwaukee area, while seeing a decline in the rest of the state. “One reason that such a small swing in Wisconsin could be so important,” Cohn writes, “is that the Democrats do not have an obviously promising alternative if Wisconsin drifts to the right.” (If you don’t understand how this is good for the president, you’re not alone. More on that below.)
There are a lot of voters , regardless of who they support, who only vote in presidential elections. Turnout is always important.
There’s evidence that Hillary did not inspire high voter turnout among some major Democrat voter groups such as black voters. Blacks voted overwhelmingly for Hillary but turnout for her among blacks was lower than during ng the Obama elections.
We have to turn out as many as we can to counter the non-citizen vote.
MAGA 2020 & Beyond
https://www.audible.com/pd/Maga-2020-Beyond-Audiobook/B07DM7B84H/
Another factor to consider for 2018 was that the Paul Ryan led House got virtually nothing useful done during those first two years of Trump's term. They were about as inspiring as a bologna and cheese sandwich.
The Trump voters are coming out en masse in 2020 and that should have big impact on the House races.
Polls and projections of doom and gloom often suppress voter turnout of a particular candidate’s supporters. Now that Trump broke through this by winning against all odds last time, many will want to get on the winning team and will also ignore the naysaying media pundits. They’ve cried wolf so often that their attempts to sabotage him will fall on deaf ears.
The leftwing media helps the leftwing candidates project a sense of inevitability that gives their candidates a good 10-20% boost. They won’t have that advantage this time around. Trump won before. He can win again. We all need to show up and take family and friends with us.
What the country needs is a conservative, president-supporting majority in the House and Senate. He has accomplished great things with one arm tied behind his back. Imagine what he will do when given the support he deserves.
All of these things worries have been dispelled. Trump is a competent, successful, clean, experienced President, with better Conservative credentials than a lot of previous "Conservatives". People should only vote against him, or stay home, if they prefer a rabid socialist like Elizabeth Warren who will turn us into Venezuela.
Fear may have kept people away from Trump in 2016.
I think fear will drive people to Trump in 2020.
You mean the non-citizen, non-living, and non-existent only showing up if the Republicans are winning in the form of overlooked and newly found ballot boxes vote.
Oh, and the judicial vote for whatever fraudulent case the losers manage to bring.
Laying out the excuses for Trump’s re-election over 14 months ahead of his re-election... That’s pretty desperate on the part of the NY Slimes.
“The Trump voters are coming out en masse in 2020 and that should have big impact on the House races.”
Agreed!
And we lost the House due to us having so many R’s retire, and since the RNC is always RE-active and never PRO-active, no wonder the ‘Rats swooped in and took so many seats!
We The People and President Trump truly do stand alone much of the time. :(
“NYT analysis argues surge in voter turnout in 2020 could buck norm and boost Trump”
personally, i think the left and their media handlers are going to be stunned at the turnout for President Trump’s re-election, and I think his YUGE coattails are going to also give him back the House, sans the rapid anti-Trumper Republicans ...
“Trump has a base of support among less educated white voters”
yeah, less educated guys like me with two degrees in computer science and patents to my name ...
Pffft
;>
“They’ve cried wolf so often that their attempts to sabotage him will fall on deaf ears.”
yep. demonstrated by the odds on predictit.com which have not only not gone down but have moved slightly more favorable to Trump during the last couple of weeks, despite the full court press of the Dems and their media handlers to continuously scream “racist” at the top of their collective lungs, failed attempt to connect him to Jeffery Epstein, the failed Muller hearings and all the rest ...
i totally agree with your analysis, which is one reason i believe the Dems and their media handlers are going to be completely stunned at the outcome of 2020 ...
other reasons are the insane lurch to the left by the Dems, the Jihad Squad becoming the new face of the Dem Party, the Dem’s total war against white people, the Dem’s exclusive preference for illegal aliens vs American citizens (i.e., the Dem’s “America Last” platform vs. Trump’s “America First” platform), the full-employment booming economy, bigger take-home paychecks, Trump refusing to get drawn into pointless foreign wars, and people being totally fed up with the incessant, despicable, obvious media lies, propaganda and bias ...
I think Trump will lose the left coast, northeast minus Maine, NM, and possibly Va. He will win Minnesota and Keep the rest of the Midwest and possibly pick up Ill.
Democrats are going to pull out all the stops with voter fraud...
ICE agents should be stationed at every polling station. When illegals comes up ICE should arrest them.
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