Posted on 11/03/2018 5:16:09 PM PDT by Az Joe
11/5/14
"For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.
The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them."
I went back to the RCP polls for 2016 and calculated they had an average rat bias of 2.68%.
If you apply the same bias to RCP current polls, you get GOP winning 227 House and 55 Senate.
Most polls underpredict conservative voters. Gingrich won the house, Bush beat Kerry, Hillary lost—every one of those underpredicted conservative voters.
I think there was one year that polls underpredicted liberal turnout. Only one though.
I always consider the difference to be five percentage points on average.
Never did the detailed research but you are on the right track here, the right track.
They still are.
We’ll see what happens. If we’re going to go against history and keep the house, then it has a good chance this time cause if its gonna happen , this is the President that is a perfect fit.
I can see those totals,... 55 senate seats although I would put the Repubs at about 220 seats.
Yep
“...Skewed Toward Democrats...”
Wow, there’s a first.
The last three elections have taught us that polls are irrelevant. Yet people like talking about them.
polls, yard signs, bumper stickers, and buttons are 20th century (except for Dems)
Funny you posted this today because...
Nate put up an article on 538 today that says “Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House”. We will know on Tuesday.
“If we’re going to go against history and keep the house, then it has a good chance this time cause if its gonna happen , this is the President that is a perfect fit.”
He pretty much threw polling into a cocked hat. Or some kind of hat:)
Into a Trumped hat.
GOP holds the Senate and House.
We will see.
We got a call from a pollster today. They asked for my wife. I said, “Honey, do you want to talk to a political pollster?” She said, “No!”
I believe that far fewer conservatives choose to waste their time participating in polls that we suspect are being payed for by liberals or are likely just some type of scam. I do not like giving out any information about myself to someone who I do not know over the phone. I especially will not waste my time and minutes with them if they call on my cell phone. Liberals do not even have landlines so they do not make this differentiation.
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