Posted on 10/17/2018 5:33:20 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
CE car sales are down and EV sales are up. Most people know this much. Also, EV sales are not up by as much as ICE car sales are down. The two metrics are believed to be independent of one another. I believe they are related.
When someone purchases a Tesla Model 3, that car sale is an EV and not a new ICE vehicle. So that is a first sale the ICE industry loses.
Next, the new EV owner often trades in a used ICE car and someone else will purchase that car. Some number of car buyers will opt for a nice used car instead of a new car, so this potentially eliminates another new ICE car buyer.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Why insist that everyone has to like exactly the same things you like? The increase in battery capacity is a real thing, and is driven by mobile phone technlogy. Mobile phones have made cheaper, more capable desktop machines possible as well, but given the choice, people tend to spend more money to get the mobile phone or an update to an existing one.
Mobile phones? EV batteries?
Heck, most mobile phones with the best batteries, only get a few hours of power, and to get all day service from those batteries, you better not do anything other than talk and text. Same with EVs, where most EV vehicles can only do less than 100 mile range out of a charge.
So, no, not ready for prime time.
There are still also significant State subsidies as well in California, where nearly half of the sales occur.
Thanks for the irrelevant local anecdote.
PAR35: Let's see - out of roughly 17,000,000 vehicle sales, Tesla accounted for about 1%.
Figment: Not so difficult to increase sales from near zero.
adorno: It's very easy to overtake a market which is ceasing to exist, and the same reason that is seeing the sales of sedans going down, will eventually see EV sedans disappearing too.
What we're seeing is a shift away from low-markup sedans into higher-markup vehicles, which includes SUVs (soccer moms), pickups (single men, farmers, construction workers), and luxury sedans. We've seen this before, we've seen it decline, and we'll see it decline again.
Pickups (the new prices around here start around $40K I think, haven't shopped for one, but had a $45K club cab as a loaner during a repair to the sedan) are rugged, practical, mostly very well made, and stay in use by the original owner for a long time (and often enough, wind up in the used market). Sales of pickups epitomize the auto manufacturing and sales cycle.
SUVs seem to have a much broader price range, because the smaller ones aren't very "U", and the largest ones share components with pickups. While idling away a few minutes at the local dealer, I temporarily blacked out at the sticker prices for the full sized "soccer mom" transports. Many people will pay that premium in the belief that their wife and children will be safer in all weather, and of course be able to haul the kids, and the neighbors' kids, to and from school and sports etc..
In twenty years, perhaps half the sedans in urban areas will be EVs; five to ten years out, an EV will enter consideration as a household commuter vehicle in suburbia; in fifty years, whomever is alive then will be zoomin' around in hovercraft.
Good post.
Tesla sedans are performance low end luxury cars. The Model X is a crossover, and they have a pickup in development. Their semi truck is on the road being tested.
I wonder if the people who hate Tesla/Musk have any idea.
Pretty sure they have none whatsoever, or want any. EVs remain too pricey for yours truly, and that goes for the photovoltaic array I'd want to add to handle the charging (I don't support "free" charging stations seen in some municipalities), but if the budget worked out, I'd get one in a couple of more model years. Hope to retire by then, would still want ICE for away-from-home travel.
In twenty years, perhaps half the sedans in urban areas will be EVs; five to ten years out, an EV will enter consideration as a household commuter vehicle in suburbia; in fifty years, whomever is alive then will be zoomin’ around in hovercraft.
.........
Which means that peak oil demand is about 10 years out. Which means that the demand for dollars to fund the international oil trade will decline subsequently. Which means that the USA has get its trade deficit down so that the world is not awash in dollars as dollar demand for international trade—declines. So that the USA is not drowned by inflation starting in 10 years.
The USA is blessed to have real leadership.
There is no Peak Oil, but we are blessed to have real leadership.
Driverless Hover-Taxis to Take Off in Singapore
Phys.org | October 24, 2018
Posted on 10/24/2018 1:38:00 AM PDT by piasa
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3699318/posts
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