Posted on 07/24/2018 5:13:34 AM PDT by SMGFan
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says Democrats for the first time are the favorites to retake control of the House in this year's midterm elections. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the university's Center for Politics, said Tuesday that Democrats are now "soft favorites" for control of the chamber.
"[F]or most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP," he wrote.
The analysis comes as Sabato shifted 17 House races in favor of Democrats, with several vulnerable Republicans including Rep. Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) seeing their races move from "likely Republican" to "toss-up" in the ratings.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Lastly, who appointed Larry Sabato the rank of “Top Analyst”??
His data is delayed. A month or two ago I would have agreed and have stated as much... that Dems were going to take the house.
However in the last month or so the Democrats have gone so publicly bat guano crazy that they are doing the on thing Republicans need to do but won’t or can’t and that’s motivating those non traditional MAGA voters to show up this fall.
Looking at spending the next few months with them losing their minds for political theater regarding the new Supreme Court nominee will just further motivate those people to show up.
If this plays out the way it looks like it is going to the Republicans are not only likely to hold the house but very likely could gain significant seats.
The democrat enthusiasm advantage that was likely to win them the house is evaporating fast and not because of anything the republicans have done, but because the Dems are acting so insanely crazy they are motivating the non traditional MAGA voters to show up just to vote against them.
This was good for a chuckle.
It reminds me of the “news” all during October, 2016, that Hillary was unbeatable.
As always, it’s all about turnout. So far, the dems are far more motivated, because they smell blood. The key is going to be how many patriots are going to fight to head that off.
I’m calling my friends and relatives around the country and telling them to take as many people as they can to vote Republican. I live in the loser state of CT but we will still try to defeat the democrats. This midterm is as important as any election.
To Larry: I can’t thank you enough for the get out the vote of broken glass Republicans and decent Democrrats.
“Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?”
Sabato said earlier this year the Dems had to have a +6 generic advantage to even have a shot of taking the house. So is he now backing off that statement? I have not seen any recent generic ballot questions with the Dems at +6 or greater.
We will see.
Take whatever Larry Sabato predicts and put money on the opposite.
This will only happen if republicans stay at home.
We will see.
Can’t stand Larry Saabato, but WE CANNOT GET COMPLACENT! We need to get the vote out to counter Dem voter fraud!
...especially if you’re a white male, even more so if sexually straight...don’t even think about it if Christian. They hate us, they don’t even want our vote. What is astonishing is that there’s still some in this category that don’t realize this. You have to ask them...what are you doing voting democrat?
That the party doesn’t even care if they don’t get these votes is amazingly stupid. Talk about “cut off your nose to spite your face”.
Popcorn concession?
Therein lies our problem; too many loons.
Finally a sane response. Most here are in denial. I agree with you. We have to expect some loss of seats. That is natural. I also agree that subpoenaing the Trump tax returns is almost a no-brainer for the Dems if they win the House. In fact they would be derelict in their duty representing their constituents if they don't go after Trump from day one...
Larry Sabato who is always wrong. LOL!
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