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Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?
WSJ ^
| June 21, 2018 7:24 p.m. ET
| By Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue
Posted on 06/22/2018 10:27:23 AM PDT by Red Badger
James Hansen issued dire warnings in the summer of 1988. Today earth is only modestly warmer.
James E. Hansen wiped sweat from his brow. Outside it was a record-high 98 degrees on June 23, 1988, as the NASA scientist testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources during a prolonged heat wave, which he decided to cast as a climate event of cosmic significance. He expressed to the senators his high degree of confidence in a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.
With that testimony and an accompanying paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Mr. Hansen lit the bonfire of the greenhouse vanities, igniting a world-wide debate that continues today about the energy structure of the entire planet. President Obamas environmental policies were predicated on similar models of rapid, high-cost warming. But the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansens predictions affords an opportunity to see how well his forecasts have doneand to reconsider environmental policy accordingly.
Mr. Hansens testimony described three possible scenarios for the future of carbon dioxide emissions. He called Scenario A business as usual, as it maintained the accelerating emissions growth typical of the 1970s and 80s. This scenario predicted the earth would warm 1 degree Celsius by 2018. Scenario B set emissions lower, rising at the same rate today as in 1988. Mr. Hansen called this outcome the most plausible, and predicted it would lead to about 0.7 degree of warming by this year. He added a final projection, Scenario C, which he deemed highly unlikely: constant emissions beginning in 2000. In that forecast, temperatures would rise a few tenths of a degree before flatlining after 2000.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
TOPICS: Agriculture; Astronomy; History; Science
KEYWORDS: carbondioxide; climatechange; globalwarming; greenhouseeffect; hansen; jameshansen
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To: Red Badger
Requires subscription to read
2
posted on
06/22/2018 10:29:43 AM PDT
by
taxcontrol
(Stupid should hurt)
To: taxcontrol
I don’t have a subscription and I read it...............
3
posted on
06/22/2018 10:30:13 AM PDT
by
Red Badger
(When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
To: Red Badger
4
posted on
06/22/2018 10:31:14 AM PDT
by
yuleeyahoo
(The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
To: Red Badger
And this was only about 10 years after Leonard Nimoy on “In Search Of” talked of the coming Ice Age.
5
posted on
06/22/2018 10:31:49 AM PDT
by
OttawaFreeper
("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966)
To: Red Badger
6
posted on
06/22/2018 10:33:10 AM PDT
by
taxcontrol
(Stupid should hurt)
To: Red Badger
“I dont have a subscription and I read it...............”
Whoop-ti-do!
7
posted on
06/22/2018 10:34:05 AM PDT
by
TexasGator
(Z1)
To: yuleeyahoo
I don’t see a paywall.................
8
posted on
06/22/2018 10:34:17 AM PDT
by
Red Badger
(When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
To: Red Badger
If their Mission State rent from the UN is to find global warming they finagled it, called it consensus, and got more funding.
9
posted on
06/22/2018 10:34:47 AM PDT
by
Rurudyne
(Standup Philosopher)
To: taxcontrol
I don’t know. I clicked the link on Drudge. Try that. it might have a different address..................
10
posted on
06/22/2018 10:35:17 AM PDT
by
Red Badger
(When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
To: Rurudyne
Damn auto cottesct turned Statement into State rent.
11
posted on
06/22/2018 10:35:55 AM PDT
by
Rurudyne
(Standup Philosopher)
To: yuleeyahoo
12
posted on
06/22/2018 10:36:24 AM PDT
by
Red Badger
(When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
To: taxcontrol
13
posted on
06/22/2018 10:37:07 AM PDT
by
COBOL2Java
(Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
To: COBOL2Java
14
posted on
06/22/2018 10:39:29 AM PDT
by
yuleeyahoo
(The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
To: Red Badger
15
posted on
06/22/2018 10:40:50 AM PDT
by
COBOL2Java
(Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
To: Red Badger
But the *NEXT *30 years will me much hotter, colder, variable or stagnant, you'll see.
16
posted on
06/22/2018 10:41:48 AM PDT
by
BitWielder1
(I'd rather have Unequal Wealth than Equal Poverty.)
To: Red Badger
What did it say? Perhaps it said they may have missed a few projections but in the end, we're all still gonna die. 🍿🍻😹👍🏼
17
posted on
06/22/2018 10:43:32 AM PDT
by
rktman
(Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
To: Red Badger
Climate Change Is as Made-up and Phony as the Steele Dossier"
- Rush Limbaugh
18
posted on
06/22/2018 10:44:38 AM PDT
by
COBOL2Java
(Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
To: rktman
Well, I just checked it out and the entire thing was available. But, like a lot of us, I'll just comment on the header regardless of the info in the article. 👀👹
19
posted on
06/22/2018 10:45:52 AM PDT
by
rktman
(Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
To: Red Badger
This is just more proof that Republicans are anti-science. /s
20
posted on
06/22/2018 10:46:29 AM PDT
by
yuleeyahoo
(The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
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