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Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?
WSJ ^ | June 21, 2018 7:24 p.m. ET | By Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue

Posted on 06/22/2018 10:27:23 AM PDT by Red Badger

James Hansen issued dire warnings in the summer of 1988. Today earth is only modestly warmer.

James E. Hansen wiped sweat from his brow. Outside it was a record-high 98 degrees on June 23, 1988, as the NASA scientist testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources during a prolonged heat wave, which he decided to cast as a climate event of cosmic significance. He expressed to the senators his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

With that testimony and an accompanying paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Mr. Hansen lit the bonfire of the greenhouse vanities, igniting a world-wide debate that continues today about the energy structure of the entire planet. President Obama’s environmental policies were predicated on similar models of rapid, high-cost warming. But the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s predictions affords an opportunity to see how well his forecasts have done—and to reconsider environmental policy accordingly.

Mr. Hansen’s testimony described three possible scenarios for the future of carbon dioxide emissions. He called Scenario A “business as usual,” as it maintained the accelerating emissions growth typical of the 1970s and ’80s. This scenario predicted the earth would warm 1 degree Celsius by 2018. Scenario B set emissions lower, rising at the same rate today as in 1988. Mr. Hansen called this outcome the “most plausible,” and predicted it would lead to about 0.7 degree of warming by this year. He added a final projection, Scenario C, which he deemed highly unlikely: constant emissions beginning in 2000. In that forecast, temperatures would rise a few tenths of a degree before flatlining after 2000.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Agriculture; Astronomy; History; Science
KEYWORDS: carbondioxide; climatechange; globalwarming; greenhouseeffect; hansen; jameshansen
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1 posted on 06/22/2018 10:27:23 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

Requires subscription to read


2 posted on 06/22/2018 10:29:43 AM PDT by taxcontrol (Stupid should hurt)
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To: taxcontrol

I don’t have a subscription and I read it...............


3 posted on 06/22/2018 10:30:13 AM PDT by Red Badger (When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
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To: Red Badger

Pay wall.


4 posted on 06/22/2018 10:31:14 AM PDT by yuleeyahoo (The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
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To: Red Badger

And this was only about 10 years after Leonard Nimoy on “In Search Of” talked of the coming Ice Age.


5 posted on 06/22/2018 10:31:49 AM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966)
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To: Red Badger

Perhaps you are special?


6 posted on 06/22/2018 10:33:10 AM PDT by taxcontrol (Stupid should hurt)
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To: Red Badger

“I don’t have a subscription and I read it...............”

Whoop-ti-do!


7 posted on 06/22/2018 10:34:05 AM PDT by TexasGator (Z1)
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To: yuleeyahoo

I don’t see a paywall.................


8 posted on 06/22/2018 10:34:17 AM PDT by Red Badger (When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
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To: Red Badger

If their Mission State rent from the UN is to find global warming they finagled it, called it consensus, and got more funding.


9 posted on 06/22/2018 10:34:47 AM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: taxcontrol

I don’t know. I clicked the link on Drudge. Try that. it might have a different address..................


10 posted on 06/22/2018 10:35:17 AM PDT by Red Badger (When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
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To: Rurudyne

Damn auto cottesct turned Statement into State rent.


11 posted on 06/22/2018 10:35:55 AM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: yuleeyahoo

Try the Drudge link:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty-years-on-how-well-do-global-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442


12 posted on 06/22/2018 10:36:24 AM PDT by Red Badger (When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
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To: taxcontrol
Try this:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty-years-on-how-well-do-global-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442

13 posted on 06/22/2018 10:37:07 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
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To: COBOL2Java

This link works.


14 posted on 06/22/2018 10:39:29 AM PDT by yuleeyahoo (The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
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To: Red Badger

15 posted on 06/22/2018 10:40:50 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
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To: Red Badger
But the *NEXT *30 years will me much hotter, colder, variable or stagnant, you'll see.

16 posted on 06/22/2018 10:41:48 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (I'd rather have Unequal Wealth than Equal Poverty.)
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To: Red Badger
What did it say? Perhaps it said they may have missed a few projections but in the end, we're all still gonna die. 🍿🍻😹👍🏼
17 posted on 06/22/2018 10:43:32 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: Red Badger

“Climate Change Is as Made-up and Phony as the Steele Dossier"

- Rush Limbaugh


18 posted on 06/22/2018 10:44:38 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
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To: rktman
Well, I just checked it out and the entire thing was available. But, like a lot of us, I'll just comment on the header regardless of the info in the article. 👀👹
19 posted on 06/22/2018 10:45:52 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: Red Badger

This is just more proof that Republicans are anti-science. /s


20 posted on 06/22/2018 10:46:29 AM PDT by yuleeyahoo (The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
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