Posted on 06/14/2018 5:32:09 PM PDT by BenLurkin
Dr. Marin and Dr. Beluffi begin their latest study by considering the various concepts that have been proposed for making an interstellar journey...also took into account missions that will be launching in the coming years like NASA’s Parker Solar Probe. This probe will reach record-breaking orbital velocities of up to 724,205 km/h, which works out to about 200 km/s (or 0.067% the speed of light).
With their baseline for speed and travel time established – 200 km/s and 6300 years – Dr. Marin and Dr. Beluffi then set out to determine the minimum number of people needed to ensure that a healthy crew arrived at Proxima b.
“We are using a ...stochastic Monte Carlo code that accounts for all possible outcomes of space simulations by testing every randomized scenario for procreation, life and death. By looping the simulation thousands of times, we get statistical values that are representative of a real space travel for a multi-generational crew. The code accounts for as many biological factors as possible and is currently being developed to include more and more physics.”
…
These biological factors include things like the number of women vs. men, their respective ages, life expectancy, fertility rates, birth rates, and how long the crew would have to reproduce. It also took into account...accidents, disasters, catastrophic events, and the number of crew members likely to be effected by them.
They then averaged the results of these simulations over 100 interstellar journeys based on these various factors and different values to determine the size of the minimum crew... of 98 crew members would be needed to sustain a multi-generational voyage to the nearest star system with a potentially-habitable exoplanet.
(Excerpt) Read more at universetoday.com ...
How is this fair to the people three generations in who don’t have any desire to spend their lives in a tin can?
Yep, good points.
You also wonder, what sort of government, what sort of social structure, would there be on this spaceship. Who would do the work? Would there be money, or a government? Would children go to school at all? How big is this spaceship? Would it be like being packed in an airplane? Imagine living your whole life in some confined space.
Humans on earth will become extinct within a million years having endured 100 ice ages by then,
so you predict ice ages in earth’s future? but what about global warming???
Sarcasm
If we expect them to really be “generational” we must be dang sure they are true concervatives and not some gender idenity questioning liberals or else the ship will arrive with no living passengers. But it will probably will have rainbows painted all over the ship.
Has a nice ring to it.
All members of Congress, although I doubt any of them could reproduce.
In Gene Wolfe’s Book of the Long Sun they don’t even realize that it’s a ship. It’s one of those giant cylinders that they spin to simulate gravity and the people live on the inside.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_the_Long_Sun
Freegards
It depends.
What happens if the Centauri think it's a caravan of illegals coming from Central Milky Way?
Should we send just the children?
-PJ
There was an episode of “Star Trek”, something like “The World Is Hollow And I Have Touched The Sky”, in which an entire population is traveling to a new destination, but unknown to them.
It was one of the better episodes but basically the idea is too far fetched.
Two.
http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Golgafrinchan_Ark_Fleet_Ship_B
How about some scientific confirmation that conceiving a child in (near-) zero G, going through puberty and adolescence with no gravity, and then reproducing again (all in an environment where you’re subjected to all sorts of gamma rays and other space radiation) is safe BEFORE futzing around with Monte Carlo spreadsheets to come up with a near-meaningless number.
I would suppose they could have frozen fertilized embryos and the ability to grow them in an artificial womb. Then you could have robotic, human realistic nurses to nurture and teach them.
In fact, you could have frozen embryos of all kinds of animals, seeds, fungi spores, etc., etc. to release once you arrive, to ensure plant and animal life populates a terra formed world. They’re be no rush to hatch the humans, as it were, until such time as the terra forming is completed and the animal and plants are thriving.
It would be like the Garden of Eden.
In this case, you wouldn’t need any crew, just an AI ship fully automated.
We don't need space ships for that, just some helicopters :)
I can think of 535, for starters
The question was minimal. Optimal would have a much higher Stewardess to to Captain ratio. Grin.
Suppose a leak develops in the ship or the genomes are so damaged by cosmic rsys all you get are mutants....i suppose they’re gonna compost the dead and use em for fertilizer...or eat em outright...frozen irradiated soylent spuds.suppose a virus is mutated and wipes out everyone? Probably better to build underground colonies on the moon first...
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