Analysts Are Bailing on Apple Stock

www.extremetech.com ^ | January 31, 2018 | Wayne Duggan

[fireman15]

"We expect a meaningful guide lower when the company reports on Thursday night, on the order of $5 to $6 billion compared to consensus revenue estimates," Long says.

While the global iPhone user base is still growing, Long says users are keeping their devices longer, a trend that could continue in 2018 if the next model iPhones are not particularly impressive. He also says Apple may finally be losing its iPhone pricing power.

"Following 10 years where [average selling prices] have generally moved higher, we believe prices will plateau as with the rest of the industry," Long says.

BMO has downgraded Apple stock from "outperform" to "market perform" and lowered its price target for the stock from $199 to $162, but there are other analysts who still see Apple as a solid investment.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan says Apple's long-term future is more dependent on its Services segment than its hardware sales.

[minnesota_bound]

Last week I bought a LG G3 at Ebay for $69 (has slight scratch) and a $98 LG G3 that was perfect. Both 3.5 year old (July 2014)
Backup phone for my other LG G3 I have and one for my sister who had a squirrel eat her Samsung S4......

Install CPU-Z app and you will find the Samsung S8 screen resolution is slightly less then the LG. Both have 4 cpu’s, both make phone calls. The S8 is $800!

The iPhone price is way out of line like the S8.

[mylife]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9i4IQu56Ag

Can we talk MC5?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfDoUIh23Wg

[mylife]

I want my Bose speakers Harmann Kardon amp and Technics turntable

[LouieFisk]

I think you can get ‘em, since disks and even cassettes are having at least a bit of a comeback.

[mylife]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyPiGc1RlrI

Not even worthy of good audio, but worthy of rock and roll

[mylife]

Missing the Harmonn Kardon tube amp :(

Stuff needs re capped (capacitors)

Lasted longer than the current craze.

[LouieFisk]

“Stuff needs re capped (capacitors)”
—
I’m so old I can remember when you could buy ‘em at the neighborhood Radioshack. Now, if you can even find a Radioshack, it’s just a cell-phone outlet store.

[BipolarBob]

I’ve had good luck. Easy to navigate and do things with. I fought and fought Win 10 until I just had enough. No more Windows for me.

[CodeToad]

“Piping hot, I got a beer, got away from the old lady and did not have to pay her phone bill. LOL”

Knowledge is knowing how to use an iPhone to order a pizza...wisdom is knowing what you said!

[LouieFisk]

“I’ve had good luck. Easy to navigate and do things with.”
—
Zorin’s a good distro for people with a Windows background. Linux Mint is, too, I’m on it right now.

Cool thing about Ubuntu-based OSes like Mint and Zorin is that you can write them on a USB stick and give ‘em a trial run to see if you like ‘em or not. Or, write them on a disk - but disks tend to slow things down a little.

Does Zorin tend to go to a blank screen or screensaver if you don’t input keyboard/mouse every 10 minutes?
I found that to be a problem with some distros, had to install a program called “caffeine” to stop it. I think I might have run into that problem last time I tried Zorin.
(Royal pain when you’re trying to watch video.)

[Swordmaker]

Really?

Cascend analyst raises Apple price target to $220, disputes weak iPhone X demand

[BipolarBob]

I’m not sure. I’m off and on mine a lot. I don’t tend to stay in one place too long. It probably does do that because I sign on every time I use it. It doesn’t bother me because of security reasons. I may watch a movie on it sometime to see if that happens. If it does I’ll try Caffeine. Thanks for the tip.

[LouieFisk]

Ah, I watch movies/TV a lot on my Linux, so it can be an annoyance. Many times it’s movies\vids that I already have stored to watch later.

Yeah, just Google caffeine and Zorin if you need it. Also I imagine the Zorin forum would have info on it.

I assume you’re using the free version of Zorin, the Ultimate version is approx $24 USD - might be worth it if a person really loves it.

[BipolarBob]

I’m using the free one but I’d definitely pay $24 if it did more.

[LouieFisk]

I think the draw in the Ulitmate version is the support. I believe most of the extra apps can be installed in the free version.

The only thing I’ve ever shelled out money for was for a good Linux anti-malware program (Eset Nod32) and a program - for Windows - that can access, open,read, play files in Linux from Windows.

I usually have “dual boot” PCs, with both Windows and Linux on the same machine - Linux can access Windows files just fine, but not vice versa. So I bought Paragon ExtFS for Windows, which enable Windows to do likewise.

[Darth Mall]

BFL

[Swordmaker]

Apple Ping! FUD thread. . . this article counters the whole premise:

The latest Apple/Mac/iOS Pings can be found by searching Keyword "ApplePingList" on FreeRepublic's Search.

If you want on or off the Mac Ping List, Freepmail me

---

From Apple Insider— January 31, 2017

Apple's iPhone X outsold iPhone 8 series 2-to-1 in US during record-breaking Q4, report says

By Mikey Campbell
Wednesday, January 31, 2018, 04:07 pm PT (07:07 pm ET)Bucking — seemingly spurious — claims that Apple is cutting iPhone X production due to weak demand, a report from Counterpoint on Wednesday found the flagship iPhone outsold its iPhone 8 and 8 Plus siblings by a 2-to-1 ratio. And it wasn't because iPhone sales flagged.

According to statistics gathered by the research firm's Market Pulse program, Apple sold a record 22.4 million iPhones in the U.S. over the fourth calendar quarter of 2017. The performance garnered Apple its highest ever marketshare, up to 44 percent from a previous high of 37 percent.

Notably, Counterpoint's data casts doubt on an ongoing narrative claiming iPhone X sales have been less than optimal. Research Director Neil Shah said worldwide iPhone X sell through has been "softer than expected" due to its high price tag, but the handset it performing well in the U.S. where consumers are willing to pay for the Apple ecosystem.

"During Q4 2017, all the three new iPhones were strong sellers — the three were the top three selling phones in the U.S. market," Shah said. "However, since its launch on Nov. 3, the iPhone X outsold the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus by a 2:1 margin. What this means is the super-premium segment (above $800) has grown from almost 0 percent in previous years to 25 percent share of the total smartphones sold in USA during Q4 2017, which speaks volumes for the potential of USA market and the U.S. consumers' buying power."

Adding color to the hard data, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack noted Apple grew its sell through by 20 percent in a U.S. market that grew only 2 percent over the same period.

"This means Apple has been successful to take share away from Samsung in the premium," he said.

Fieldhack said the success of iPhone X, as well as iPhone 8 Plus, will help boost ASPs for the quarter. Of the 22.4 million iPhones sold, more than 10.5 million were priced above $850, meaning Apple generated nearly $9 billion from premium handset sales in the U.S.

Earlier this week, Nikkei issued a report claiming Apple slashed iPhone X production orders in half due to "slower than expected holiday sales" the U.S., China and Europe. A separate report from The Wall Street Journal echoed the narrative, but as AppleInsider pointed out, the numbers don't add up.

In any case, industry watchers will likely receive clues as to iPhone X's performance when Apple reveals earnings for its first fiscal quarter of 2018 tomorrow. The company does not normally break down sales by model, but overall iPhone sales metrics should provide ample fodder for analyst estimates.

AppleInsider will be covering Apple's ensuing earnings conference call live from 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern.

[fireman15]

Figure an average selling price of $700, you’re looking at ~$47 Billion in iPhone revenue alone!

The mystery will be answered tomorrow afternoon. You are the Apple expert; I am very curious how your estimate will compare to reality.

It seems like the average wholesale price would be more relevant to the earnings numbers. The combined average wholesale price per unit that Apple receives from their sales of iPhone X, iPhone 8, 8+, 7, 7+, and SE is likely significantly less than the average suggested retail price. I don't know what that average wholesale price is, but resellers have been heavily discounting iPhones some without contracts.

[Swordmaker]

The mystery will be answered tomorrow afternoon. You are the Apple expert; I am very curious how your estimate will compare to reality.

Frankly, I am too. Mine are just as much guesstimates as anyone else’s are, although based in some firm hard figures from “reliable” (or at least they’ve been in previous quarters, say +/- 5%) non-Apple data sources on product mix percentage/numbers.

[fireman15]

Forbes seems to have a slightly less optimistic point of view than the Cascend analyst.

iPhone X Failure Forces Apple Into Drastic Action

"As many will be rushing to point out, Apple has a habit of cutting production every quarter following the rush of the festive period, ‘so this should not come as a surprise'. Except this perhaps hides the key point to the discussion. Even though Apple’s cut is expected, that cut will have featured in the estimates of all of the suppliers. This isn’t the expected drop that was already factored in by the suppliers who understand and manage their tight margins, this is a cut in excess of the expected drop."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2018/01/29/apple-iphonex-failure-sales-estimate-truth-marketshare-production/#3171a1433bd5