Posted on 08/07/2017 10:20:26 AM PDT by BenLurkin
Market breadth, a measure of how many stocks are rising versus the number that are dropping, has turned “exceedingly negative,” according to Brad Lamensdorf, a portfolio manager at Ranger Alternative Management. Lamensdorf writes the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report newsletter and runs the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF HDGE, -0.64% an exchange-traded fund that “shorts” stocks, or bets that they will fall.
“As the indexes continue to produce a series of higher highs, subsurface conditions are painting an entirely different picture,” Lamensdorf wrote in the latest edition of the newsletter. He noted that the year-to-date advance in equities — the S&P 500 SPX, +0.10% is up 10.6% in 2017 — has been driven by outsize gains in some of the market’s biggest names.
Most notably, the so-called FAANG stocks, which refers to a quintet of technology and internet names, have by themselves contributed more than 28% of the benchmark index’s gain. Separately, megacap names like Boeing Co. BA, +1.42% and Johnson & Johnson JNJ, -0.37% have also outperformed the broader market.
“The good performance of these large companies is masking the fact that many stocks, including REITs and those in the retail sector, have already entered bear-market territory,” Lamensdorf wrote, referring to real estate investment trusts.
According to an analysis of FactSet data, 79 components of the S&P 500 are trading at least 20% below their 52-week high; a bear market is typically defined as a 20% drop from a peak. However, more than half the components are in what could be deemed bull market territory — at least 20% above their 52-week low.
Lamensdorf also cited a measure that compares market volume on advancing days to volume on days when the major indexes decline.... since mid-2016, the spikes have topped out at progressively smaller highs.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
dum, dum, DUUUUUUMMMMM!!!!!!
The bull is the mask. The bear is under the mask. I guess that is what they are trying to get from the picture.
The liberals, who own Market Watch are using fake news, still.
People who own malls are turning in a crappy performance.....well DUH!
Lamendorff’s interpretation of the data may very well be skewed by his firms emphasis on short sales. True.
The best bet for any investor is to use the Lamendorff analysis as a jumping of point for making their own assessment of the information presented.
If it’s written down or online it must be true.
With 85% of corporate earnings reporting this quarter, and 75% of those
beating earnings (for the last two quarters), this article is anything but to bring Trump rally down.
Utter nonsense. The market climbs a wall of worry.
The earnings numbers are positive. True. A complete turn around for many companies which ere losing money or breaking close to even. Any investor looking to buy those stocks will want to take a very close look exactly how the current numbers were generated.
This chart shows what was what when the Dot-Com bubble was about to burst. I would plan accordingly, if you've not already done so. Diversity is your friend, when it comes to investments. If History is an indicator, at a minimum we're due for SOME sort of downward, 'adjustment' in the very near future. And oh, wouldn't the Socialists LOVE IT if it happened on Trump's Watch? ;)
Chart and article are here:
bttt
While that may be true we have to remember there is far more funny money circulating out in our economy than there was then. I'm not sure how that would adjust to the current condition but it's something to consider.
CGato
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