Posted on 03/30/2017 1:13:04 PM PDT by Luircin
I’ve been listening to the angst and fury on FR for the last week or two of how conservatives feel betrayed or angry at the fight between Trump and the HFC.
So I’m hoping to maybe explain what I see happening, especially in terms of game theory and the business world, and perhaps this insight into the tactics of Donald Trump regarding health care will bring about a modicum of peace between the factions on FR.
Part 1: Game Theory
I’d like to start this discussion with a short explanation of game theory. This is pretty simplified, but it’s a good model to start from.
Game theory takes place in an adversarial system. Not adversarial in the sense of enemy, but in the sense that each faction in this ‘game’ has its own goals and pursues those goals. In the business world, the goals are often ‘money’ or ‘profit,’ but we can substitute ‘political capital’ or ‘legislation’ if we care to. But for the sake of this explanation, we’ll call it ‘points.’
Each faction seeks to gain the greatest amount of points for itself via interactions with the other factions. When two factions meet with each other, they have the chance to either act in a cooperative manner or an uncooperative manner. A cooperative manner typically means that faction offers to work together for their goals with honesty and good faith. An uncooperative manner means that the faction pursues its own goals with a single-minded drive, not caring to compromise even a little bit on their goals and being willing to fight and undercut the other factions in order to get to them.
For sake of simplicity, we’ll call cooperative ‘Nice’ and uncooperative ‘Nasty.’ This does not indicate virtue, mind you, but rather a willingness to cooperate with other adversarial factions.
When two factions in this game deal with each other, the choice is to deal in a Nice way or a Nasty way. When one faction deals in a Nasty way and the other faction deals in a Nice way, the Nasty faction basically takes advantage of the Nice faction and gets everything they want. For the sake of this game, we’ll say that they get 5 points, and the Nice faction gets nothing.
When both factions deal in a Nice way, neither faction gets everything that it wants, but both get some of what they want. Both factions, for the sake of this simplified game, get 3 points.
Conversely, when both factions are Nasty, the fighting between each other hurts them both, and both sides only get a little of what they want. Both factions get one point.
How do you get the maximum amount of points when dealing with adversarial factions who are also looking to get the maximum amount of points?
This is a massively simplified game—as I said before—but it’s the basis from which most of modern-day game theory grows. Over time, using this model, one dominant strategy has emerged, known as Tough but Fair, or alternately tit-for-tat or blow-for-blow.
In this strategy, the faction in question starts out as Nice, but then shifts to always following the strategy of the faction it is dealing with. So if a faction is Nasty to them, they then turn Nasty back, but they will continue to cooperate with other factions who are also Nice.
I’ll spare you a play-by-play of how these games tend to go, but the short version is that the factions who play by this strategy, after multiple iterations of the game, have consistently ended up with larger point totals by cooperating with other Nice factions, while factions who are generally Nasty get left behind.
To keep this vanity from being too long, I’ll leave you to research anything more on your own if you feel like it.
Part 2: Politics and the Healthcare Showdown.
This is the point at which we get into a certain amount of speculation about the motives of the various factions in DC. But this is what I think is going on, and the evidence seems to bear out my hypothesis.
The campaign is over and it’s a new game in DC right now. We’ll pretend that this is a fresh board, or a fresh game, with many different factions. The important factions right now are the Trump administration, the Democrats, the Freedom Caucus, and the various other Republicans.
Please note here: Trump and the Freedom Caucus are NOT the same faction. They do NOT have the same goals, and they do NOT have a unified strategy with each other. Many of their goals ARE the same, but they are not the same thing.
Also note: ‘Nice’ does NOT mean a yes-vote. ‘Nasty’ does NOT mean a no-vote. ‘Nice’ means a willingness to engage and cooperate, and to be honest in your dealings.
I repeat: Nice does NOT equal voting for Ryancare. Nasty does NOT mean voting against Ryancare.
The Democrats have already cemented themselves as Nasty; they hate Trump SO much that they refuse to deal with him at all, and they proved it many times over. Trump already tried being Nice and is now being Nasty to them right back. And as we can see, the Democrats are making very little progress towards their goals.
The various factions of moderates, conservatives, and RINOs are also dealing with Trump. They and Trump have VERY different ideas of what should pass; however, they have been mostly dealing with him in a Nice manner, with certain exceptions. (I’m looking at you, McCain.) Now, bear in mind, that is NOT to say that many of them aren’t utterly corrupt and wrong, but rather that they are acting cooperatively… for the time being. They are getting some of what they want, and Trump is getting some of what he wants. In the future, Trump will continue to get some of what he wants out of them as long as they continue to be Nice.
But now we come to the House Freedom Caucus. And in the case of Ryancare, they chose to bargain in a Nasty manner. I repeat, standing on ideology does NOT mean ‘Nasty.’ And ultimately voting no to Ryancare also does NOT mean Nasty. But in this case they were single-minded and in order to achieve their goals, they negotiated in bad faith, moved their own goalposts, changed their demands in mid-negotiation.
The HFC could have still scuttled the bill while acting in a Nice manner, but they decided not to. I will refrain from saying whether it was a good or bad thing that they acted as they did—I personally do not shed a single tear at the failure of Ryancare--but the HFC did act in a manner that was bluntly uncooperative.
And they got what they wanted. Ryancare failed. In this case, they got their 5 points and it was a big victory for them.
But now Tough but Fair kicks in. Remember, Trump’s goal isn’t to get along with the Freedom Caucus; he is his own faction. His goal is to implement as much of his MAGA agenda as possible. And according to Tough but Fair game theory, now he is being Nasty back to the HFC. Twisting arms, calling them out, and so forth.
We may not like it, but it IS consistent with Tough but Fair. Even if the goals of both Trump and the HFC are similar, it doesn't change that they are different and have ultimately different goals. And as long as the HFC is antagonistic, I suspect that Trump will be as well.
Part 3: Now what?
All of us may be aggravated at how Trump seems to be continually cooperating with the moderates and RINOs, but according to Tough but Fair, this is the best way to get the most possible of the MAGA agenda passed. Should they stab Trump in the back, he in turn will turn on them. But for now they are cooperating and getting some of what they want, and in turn Trump is getting some of what he wants.
We know that the RINOs are untrustworthy. We don’t want Trump to trust them; we know that they’ll eventually turn on him. I’m willing to bet that Trump knows that too. But once again, Tough but Fair. Even if you know that they’re untrustworthy, you continue to treat them in a Nice manner until they, by their actions, turn Nasty towards you.
We may be aggravated, but in models AND in the business world, implementing Tough but Fair, even with unsavory factions or even factions that you loathe, has nevertheless turned the greatest profits. Or in this case, the greatest advancement of Trump’s agenda.
In the long term--at least I will bet that this is the case in Trump’s view--it is the best way to Make America Great Again.
Ryan & Prebuis are responsible for the debacle in the healthcare bill!
Know why it was pulled? Had more moderate Republicans line up to vote against it! Ryan & Prebuis really didn’t do their jobs!!!! Huge fail.
And it only stopped PP funding for ONE year!! Read page 23 of CBO report! What a disaster!
Not Freedom Caucus fault - they ride the pulse of the American people.
You got half of people happy Ryancare failed and the other half upset at the failure.
And then there is me.
Knee jerk it is.
What I’m laying out is a case for how the current drama is part of the process for Trump keeping his promises.
You’re acting like a child without even engaging my points.
Here’s some game theory. I was promised a 1000 times, right off the bat “repeal and replace”. I was never promised a teeny adjustment to Obamacare to start, and two more phases later in the term, which I know would never happen.
If they don’t have the balls to do it now, im supposed to believe they will as we approach midterms?
LOL
I wish someone would at least take the time to understand the history of the base of the republican party. When you go to far away from the constitution or moral issues conservatives stay home. All you are doing is saying Conservatives are no longer welcome in the republican/uni-party crowd.
This is what I expected from Trump anyway in the beginning, guess I should not be disappointed. Thoroughly disgusted though.
Trump has lived up to his promises, even with all the players aligned up against him. No President is a dictator capable of getting what he wants 100%, though Obama tried very hard to be one. I'm glad Trump is not taking that same route.
Trump is not a conservative.
doesn’t matter.
Connecting the Freedom Caucus to the RATs is a loser.
Threatening to primary them buys nobody nothing on our side.
The RATs don’t need to be energized.
Apparently Trump and the Freedom Caucus are getting along fine behind the scenes.
My hope is that folks here will have a little more emotional IQ and see that this is a strategy game among many competing interests and observe objectively. Many folks feel that they are part of a faction and take this stuff personally.
No one here belongs to one of these “teams.”
There are no teams, only interests. And there is no loyalty. And that includes the HFC.
You campaign on “repeal AND REPLACE”, you put up a bill that gets blocked by members of your own party who are too stuck on ideology to get anything done.
Game theory is making it harder than it is. When a businessman runs into obstacles he finds ways around them. That’s what Trump is doing.
That was fascinating. People pay good money for tutorials of this caliber. Thank you so much for taking the time to boil all that down. It makes perfect sense out of the heretofore incomprehensible. I wish I could give you a hundred up-votes; even that would not be enough.
+1
It’s a round about way of saying that Trump is very consistent in dealing with people: friends are praised, enemies are mercilessly attacked. As long as he’s consistent and he is, then everyone can accurately predict the consequences of their actions and over the long run, it’s good for him.
But in this particular case, it’s really all about Ryan. Trump either played this out in public in order to give Ryan the rope with which to hang himself, or he foolishly put his faith in Ryan, and got burned for it. But Ryan was never supposed to lead the newly elected President into a public legislative defeat. It doesn’t really matter what was going on with the Freedom Caucus, or any other faction of Republicans, that all should’ve been worked out by Ryan behind closed doors weeks and months ago.
The Senate is far less conservative than the House and would have made the bill worse, it’s what they do.
Politics is big money for the Democrats.
They will even come on Free Republic to stir things up.
This is a very sensitive subject.
I think that we need to let this thing play out.
But there are people who have had enormous increases in the cost of their health insurance and they would like to see their rates reduced yesterday.
It is going to be extremely hard to fix this until at least 60% of our citizens can deal with reality.
The reality is that there is no such thing as “free” health care.
Until 60% or more of our citizens believe that, we are going to have problems.
Maybe we should all go smoke some weed and chill out.
Not a good demonstration of empathy for those of us crying for representation.
***
That much I can understand. I would have been more upset with these tweets myself if I hadn’t spent a significant chunk of time in the rough-and-tumble parts of NYC and got a sense of the culture.
In this case I think it’s more cultural; DJT has his eye on the results and expects that once he’s moved the proverbial ball enough down the field that these parts of the process will be mostly forgotten.
But hey, that’s just a theory!
Are you the Freedom Caucus? Why didn't you demand this in your direct meetings with Trump, instead making some demands, all of which were given to you, and then, after a deal is made, stabbing the President in the back just to make him look stupid and to insure no bill gets voted on at all?
You ahve a lot of explaining to do, DesertRhino/Freedom Caucus.
Nor is he a Republican, IMO. DJT is a 3rd party candidate who used the Republican Party as a vehicle for election. Not at all sure how all this will turn out but it's safe to say that the Rs will never again be the same and I'm OK with that.
Now, we as outsiders are free to assign the labels as we chose, but those on the inside will play according to THEIR perception, and in the real world, will take every advantage their strength allows them to take. The players are not equals in dealing.
As far as "calming tensions" goes, learn to love the tension. Tension, stress and failure are good things in the long run - see game theory.
What President Trump was saying to the ‘freedom caucus’ was this, for those of you that can’t understand ‘legal speak’:
“Get off your butts and do your jobs and we will get along fine...don’t and I will do it for you!”...
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