Wow. They sure ‘fix’ things.
This is interesting: the other side is now unskewing polls.
Many of the polls have the 2012 turnout assumption baked into them. They’re skewed to begin with.
In the U.S. elections turnout is a big factor. Likely voter polls use screens of one or another sort to distinguish who, among registered voters, will actually vote.
Yay, it’s 2012 again. Donald Trump is now MittRomney and Crooked Hillary is...Obama?
And using 1984 turnout numbers Trump wins with 55%. Next dream.
If I believed that pollsters do skew polls, then I could believe that they are skewing them now to make Trump look better. Hillary’s biggest problem is complacent Dems, and she needs them to be scared of Trump for them to get out and get organizized.
Yeah, we all know Hillary will drive the same black turnout that Obama did /sarc
Wow, talk about suspending reality. lol
I agree that there are pockets of voters who usually vote D but who will in overwhelming majority go for Trump this year. However, I don't think that will affect the national polls. (Could have huge impact on State level.)
It has been discussed for years what the reduction in response rate has on the reliability of polls. PEW research published an article in 2012 showing that their response rate (actually making an interview) was now down to 9% (nine percent). I have seen another article indicating 8% response rate in 2014.
This is a problem for the pollsters since it makes it more expensive for the pollsters to sample a large enough group. But there is another problem: What if there is a difference between those who reply to the poll and those that don't? That could induce a large, an overwhelming bias in a poll.
Some research has gone in to answer that question, and in data published in WaPo comparing accuracy and response rates in polls between 1999 - 2014 it did not appear that the accuracy had declined, despite the fact that the response rate had gone from just below 35% to below 10%.
However, for the polling companies this is like skating on thin ice. Just because it worked yesterday, and an hour ago, it may not work now!
In some previous threads I noted that if there is such a low response rate then a single percent difference in response rate will cause a large difference in the polling result even though there may be an underlying 50/50 split in the preference for the candidates.
In the old days when the response rates were well above 80% then you needed much larger differences in response rates between candidates to skew your poll. Such large differences may have been picked up elsewhere.
So to this election: It is quite obvious that the media bias has been worse than ever before. One has to go back to the election 1980 to find anything close - and that was not an election which the pollsters remember with fondness.
Now, is it very unlikely that people who are thinking of voting for a candidate that is vilified almost universally are more (and remember we are talking of a difference of a few percent only) reluctant to answer a poll?
I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious, and therefore I am much less interested in polls this election than previous ones.
Hillary gets no where near Obama Black support. Using 2012 turn out models skews the results to Hillary.
No worries, $hill. Just stick around the house and take your Ativan. Huma will handle everything.
So MSNBC admits their own polls are skewed the other way? Who knew?
Why don’t we see 2010 and 2014 turnout. I thinknthose turnouts will be more accurate as a model.
media nothing but lying scumbags.
No wonder why their numbers are tanking.
But do you see 10% of the people going to the polls and standing in line for hours to cast a vote that's ultimately meaningless? Outside of a handful of hardcore FReepers?
Nope, they'll just not bother to show up.
Adjusted (Using 2012 Fraud)
I doubt the black turnout will rival that of 2008 and 2012. I also doubt the young adult turnout will rival those two years. The young people I know (and we’ve seen reports of the same) do not like either candidate.
It does seems that slowly, but surely, Trump is gaining % of the registered Republican vote. Last I saw it was 90% which is a huge improvement from a few months ago. He needs to up that some and I expect he will.
Hilarious. They are masters of self delusion.
I posted another story about this last night, but I did not have the neat-O-keen graphic to go with it. As the article I posted last night concluded:”Just how stupid do these people think the American voters are?”
Right.
Hillary < Obama
Trump > Romney
It’s not 2012.