Posted on 08/30/2016 9:48:20 AM PDT by Signalman
Donald Trump can, and will, beat Hillary Clinton and become President of the United States.
As much as the media and political elite have already written off Trump, the evidence shows that Trump is on track to win this fall because of his popular message, his record of victory in the Republican primaries, and Hillary’s unpopularity.
First of all, don’t believe the media spin. This race is tight.
The pundits and the media elites can’t fathom the idea that a guy like Donald Trump could be our next President. They are presented on a daily basis dishonesty from Hillary Clinton, and they can see that Hillary Clinton has a difficult time connecting with average Americans. They prefer to give disproportional weight to the Clinton campaign cash advantage and the post Democratic National Convention bounce.
Yet this election is far from over.
In 1988, Michael Dukakis rolled out of his convention with a bigger lead than Hillary Clinton. However, history tells us that Dukakis never made it to the White House.
New polls conducted by Emerson College show Trump closing the gap in the “Rust Belt” states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, with him tied in the swing state of Ohio. The L.A. Times tracking poll has Trump with a very small national lead over Clinton and a recent UPI poll has Trump leading Clinton. The polls indicate that this race is now close both nationally and in swing states.
And what about the possibility that the polling models are under-reporting Trump’s level of support. Hillary Clinton has rolled out arguments linking Trump to racist elements in society. Is it possible that people are scared to tell a pollster that they support Trump for fear of being tagged a racist?
Trump’s anti-establishment message has successfully tapped into the American public’s distrust of Washington elites. You can quibble with many of his controversial statements that have hurt his campaign and some of his perceived policy wobbles, but his overarching message that the American middle class is being hurt by government policies that favor the Washington elites has struck a chord. As he hammers leaders of both parties in Washington for incompetence and self-dealing, the American people applaud. And they can see Hillary Clinton as the embodiment of all that they hate about the federal government.
The anti-establishment message helped Trump to defeat the best and brightest that the Republican Party had to offer. Trump used debates to dispatch them one-by-one. Let’s not forget that, although we are already worn out by this election cycle, the American people will be watching the debates in record numbers.
Debates can be a game changer. There are three presidential debates to go, with the first not happening until late September. Let’s not forget the last election cycle when Mitt Romney won the first debate in Denver, CO, in the fall of 2012. President Obama was off his game and it almost cost him the election. Gallup reported that Romney went from a 5% deficit to a tie in the three days after that debate.
Trump is an excellent debater and much more of a scrapper than Romney. Trump beat Jeb Bush, both the son and brother of Presidents, in debates. Trump beat three very strong anti-establishment Senators vying for the nomination. We tend to forget that Trump gathered up the most votes of any Republican primary candidate in history, with over 13 million votes against a strong lineup of candidates. Trump’s debate performance and his ability to dispatch some very skilled politicians should not be underestimated.
Then there is the biggest factor in favor of Donald Trump — he is not Hillary Clinton.
If he can make the focus of the campaign a referendum on Hillary Clinton’s record of failure, he will win. The electorate is concerned with Hillary Clinton’s alleged “pay-to-play” scandal where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been accused of granting special access to the State Department to big donors of the Clinton Foundation. Clinton has been accused of telling different stories about the cause of Benghazi and the reasons why she set up a personal server while Secretary of State. The American people recognize that Hillary has trouble telling the truth.
A glance at her favorability ratings will make most Democratic pollsters shudder. Hillary’s favorable v. unfavorable numbers are abysmal. Clinton is 15% more unfavorable than favorable in Gallup, 14% in Monmouth, 12% in Quinnipiac, and 17% in Bloomberg according to Real Clear Politics collected data. Hillary’s trust deficit may be too much to overcome.
Trump’s anti-establishment message, his romp in the Republican primaries, and Hillary’s multiple scandals all point to a Donald Trump victory this fall.
Brian Darling is a former Sr. Communications Director and Counsel for Sen. Rand Paul. Follow him on Twitter @BrianHDarling.
Someone on Fox News said her lead in the polls is being held together with duct tape and chicken wire. Good analysis.
“Why would someone lie over the phone? They’re worried the pollster is going to out them on TV? Social media?”
A Freeper recently tried to convince me of that very thing. I’m talking six to eight replies, arguing a blue streak, that conservatives are afraid to be honest with pollsters, due to “poll shaming”.
No amount of reasoning on my part could convince her otherwise.
Your wordsmithing rocks. That's an excellent description of the outed establishment pukes who claim to speak for us.
Thanks. Sometimes nature provides a visual worth more than a thousand words (or more). I see these pundits as those little fish sucked to the sides of sharks (politicians, and they often attach themselves to one shark or another even though they act like they’re roaming free.
Agreed. I just find it ludicrous. And we’ve never seen any pollster do it and have never seen any voter complain that it was done to them.
That means that everyone is lying 100% of the time, or that the pollsters don’t give a $hit. They’re just calling from data banks and are likely bored out of their mind doing it. I’ve seen it in action.
But regardless of whether you believe that or not - it is simply not logical, nay even reasonable, to expect this to be occurring on a scale massive enough to have a MATERIAL effect on any one poll. Let alone most of them.
As I’ve said many times - I remember all the wrangling over the polls here during the 2012 election - they’re over sampling Dems, they’re over sampling blacks, they’re polling registered instead of likely voters - and in the end, the polls were SPOT ON and in many cases Obama outperformed the polling.
If we’ve any change to beat Hillary, we better count on the following things:
1) Low DEM enthusiasm for her and therefore low turnout.
2) High hatred of her and therefore high turnout from our side and,
3) Trump winning over enough independents to counter what he’s losing from traditional GOP voters.
I just hope the left isn’t as eager to beat Trump because if they turn out in droves for her, he has no chance. The Electoral math just doesn’t work.
Bookmark.
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