“Why would someone lie over the phone? They’re worried the pollster is going to out them on TV? Social media?”
A Freeper recently tried to convince me of that very thing. I’m talking six to eight replies, arguing a blue streak, that conservatives are afraid to be honest with pollsters, due to “poll shaming”.
No amount of reasoning on my part could convince her otherwise.
Agreed. I just find it ludicrous. And we’ve never seen any pollster do it and have never seen any voter complain that it was done to them.
That means that everyone is lying 100% of the time, or that the pollsters don’t give a $hit. They’re just calling from data banks and are likely bored out of their mind doing it. I’ve seen it in action.
But regardless of whether you believe that or not - it is simply not logical, nay even reasonable, to expect this to be occurring on a scale massive enough to have a MATERIAL effect on any one poll. Let alone most of them.
As I’ve said many times - I remember all the wrangling over the polls here during the 2012 election - they’re over sampling Dems, they’re over sampling blacks, they’re polling registered instead of likely voters - and in the end, the polls were SPOT ON and in many cases Obama outperformed the polling.
If we’ve any change to beat Hillary, we better count on the following things:
1) Low DEM enthusiasm for her and therefore low turnout.
2) High hatred of her and therefore high turnout from our side and,
3) Trump winning over enough independents to counter what he’s losing from traditional GOP voters.
I just hope the left isn’t as eager to beat Trump because if they turn out in droves for her, he has no chance. The Electoral math just doesn’t work.